What deal could Iran agree with Trump? | Global News Podcast

Hello and welcome to the BBC's Global. News podcast on YouTube. I'm Charlotte. Gallagher and today we're going to be. speaking to the BBC's chief. international correspondent Lyse Doucet. Lyse, President Trump says he sent Iran. a 15-point plan for ending the war and. that talks are ongoing. However, Iran. says the US is negotiating with itself. So, what's going on? In a sense, they're both right. So, President Trump talks about very strong.

talks. He talks about negotiations. Iran. says no talks, no negotiations are. taking place. And what we hear from. Iranians and from others who are. involved. as many countries are involved in this. effort to try to de-escalate, bring an. end to this war, is that there are not. talks per se, but there's a lot of. messaging, which is of course part of. diplomacy. Some of the messages are. going directly between Iran's foreign. ministry in Tehran and Washington. But. most of the messages are going. indirectly through third parties. And. this time there are some new mediators.

on the block, Turkey, Egypt and. Pakistan. And Pakistan in particular. it has been has offered to host. high-level talks as early as this this. weekend. So, a lot more is happening, but the. the the two sides are very wide apart. and the both sides are still at war and. we see there are active. efforts by the by President Trump's team. to actually step up the war deployment. of more forces, which is why Iran has.

said initially its reaction was this is. just a subterfuge for you to. boost stocks, bring down oil prices and. under the guise of over talking, then. basically prepare for a military. escalation. And inside Iran, what's. going on with the power structure? Who. is in charge? Who would the US be. speaking to? There's a lot we don't know, partly. because there's almost a total internet. clampdown, and also because with Israel.

having assassinated so many top leaders, top clerics, top commanders, and vowing. to kill even more, a lot of the senior. officials who would be involved in. running the country have literally gone. underground. What we know from the first. days of the war is that there was a. decentralization. Iran had planned for a. war like like this. A decentralization. of the control and command so that this. military officers at high levels are. able to carry out their activities to. defend Iran or to attack without having.

to refer to the center because said. communications are very difficult now. In principle, according to. let's say the organigram of Iran's power. structure, the top person is Mojtaba. Khamenei, who's the son of the Ayatollah. who was assassinated in the first hours. of the war. But he's not been seen in. public or heard in public. He has issued. a lot of statements, which of course has. raised the question, are these. statements by him or just written for. him? We get conflicting accounts about.

how badly he's injured. But we do know. that there under underneath him, there. is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard. Corps. And even before this war, they. were assuming an ever more important. role. And even before this war began, in. fact as early as last year, the late. supreme leader had assigned two people. he wanted to have a greater role in. running the country. One was Ali. Larijani, the security chief who headed. the Supreme National Security Council. He was assassinated. And that left.

Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, who has played a. role through the years at every level of. the system. He headed the Air Force in. the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. He was the police chief. He was the. mayor of Tehran. But he's regarded as a. hardliner who's perhaps pragmatic. The. kind of person that President Trump has. casting about for. The kind of person he. wants to be, to use his expression, the. Delcy Rodríguez of Iran. In other words, the Iranian equivalent of the Venezuelan. vice president who took over after.

President Trump's forces extracted the. president Nicolás Maduro, and she now is. working with the administration. But. those two Iran and Venezuela are are. fundamentally very, very different. But. all the talk now is of possibly talks. involving the US Vice President J.D. Vance and Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf. Who is in charge of the Revolutionary. Guards? Is it fragmented itself now? President Trump talks about this. He. goes, "First we there was a.

These were the leaders, and we killed. them in the first days of the war when. they killed not just Ayatollah Ali. Khamenei, who's the supreme leader. They. killed all the top, you know, the head. of the army, the head of the IRGC, the. head of four major security agencies all. in one. fell swoop. And then since then they've. been elimina- assassinating more and. more of the commanders." But what we. have seen during these weeks of war is. how much Iran has prepared for this. It. has prepared the succession a few layers. deep. So every time someone is removed,

that person is replaced. Sometimes the. name is not given immediately because. they know as soon as they mention the. name, the bull's-eye will be on them. What the main observation has been is. that the deeper you go, the more you're. you're left with mostly the hardliners. And those views are basically say that. this whole campaign is backfiring. because you're left with people who will. be even more hardline in dealing with. internal dissent and also with their. relations with the wider world, including the region and the United. States and Israel. Will they want to.

sign anything with the US, or do you. think they might want to continue. fighting? So there's one channel which still. exists, the only channel really that we. that we know has been used in the past. and has been is now being used again, which is between the person who had been. the lead negotiator, the foreign. minister Abbas Araqchi, talking to Steve. Whitcomb, who's President Trump's envoy. for for everything, former property. developer, who's his golf buddy. He had. been leading the Iran negotiations and. of late, along with Jared Kushner, the.

president's son-in-law. Iran no longer trusts this process. because every time they have been. engaged in rounds of negotiations, last. June, also in February, they were shattered by. a US-backed Israeli attack. So, they see. it as a subterfuge. So, they are making. it clear they would like to talk to. somebody different. Um and the Americans. also say they want to talk to somebody. different, which is why this new channel. is being discussed. Now,

it's very opaque. We don't know what's. going on, but from sources, uh we. understand that there are indirect. messages going to Qalibaf, who again is. literally underground in Iran, sending. messages about possible negotiations. And Qalibaf is is seen as someone who. could possibly bridge the divides. between the political and the security. establishments, but right now, it. doesn't seem as though there's enough. common ground. In fact, both sides in. this war think they're winning. President Trump keeps saying, "We've.

defeated Iran. There's nothing left. They need to surrender." And the. Iranians think actually they're winning. They're winning by surviving and they're. winning by having weaponized that. crucial waterway, the Strait of Hormuz. So, neither is ready to give in. So, it's not very propitious for any kind of. really genuine and and successful. negotiating track. And considering. Donald Trump says he's a deal maker and. he really prides himself on that, do you. think he knows how to make a deal with.

Iran? President Trump has shown he. doesn't really have the. the patience and the focus for anything. which is long, dragged out. He likes the. short, sharp, and successful, like what. happened in Venezuela. One day, in and. out, Nicholas Maduro's on trial, and. he's working with a new president in. Venezuela. That's what he want, which is. why when the negotiations were still. going on in in February, I was. discussing with people who were either.

part of this process or were observing. the process and saying, "What will Trump. go for? Will he go for the deal which. was widely believed to be in reach, which is a narrow nuclear deal, short, sharp, successful, which would allow. President Trump to declare victory, I. made a deal with the Islamic Republic of. Iran, or would they go for literally the. deal of the half century, to basically. try to change everything in the Islamic. Republic of Iran, to go for regime. change?". What happened was he did go for the big.

one, and then and now he finds the. general view is that he's losing control. of it. But all Iranian officials, you. know, they told it to us, they told it. to all the media, they they they shouted. from the rooftops that if they were. attacked, they would attack the Gulf. states, that they would regard American. bases as legitimate targets, which then. raised the question, who was President. Trump relying on? He doesn't have a. strong coterie of advisers who really, really know the Middle East and have. long experience in the Middle East,

because they've been pushed aside for. those who are loyal to him and those he. trusts. And it's really showing now. That was the BBC's chief international. correspondent Lyse Doucet. And if you. want to hear more from the Global News. Podcast, click the link below. Thanks.