What could US troops do in Iran? | Global News Podcast

Welcome to the Global News podcast on. YouTube. Hello, I'm Oliver Conway. And. today we're joined by the BBC's. diplomatic correspondent James Landale. James, President Trump sending mixed. messages at the moment on Iran. He's. talking about a possible peace deal, also making more threats. And over the. weekend, we know that more US troops. arrived in the region. Let's focus on. them. What might they be there for? Well, at the moment we're talking about. is around, you know, 3,000 Marines are.

sort of about there. Another 3,000 or so. on route. There are some paratroopers. there. We also think that a further 10,000. soldiers have have been. at least the Pentagon is considering. deploying them. So, that's the sort of. numbers that we're looking at here. Now, those sorts of numbers do not prefigure. a full-scale invasion of Iran. If you. remember the the US and and allied. invasion of Iraq in 2003,

150,000 troops total, you know. So, we're talking, you know, maybe 10-ish. thousand. So, what that implies is at. least giving the Americans the option of. some kind of, you know, tactical. operation. One specific that Donald. Trump has been talking about is the idea. of invading and seizing. a particular island, Kharg Island, in. the in the northern part of the Gulf. That is a very significant.

part of Iranian oil infrastructure. It's. a terminal through which about 90% of. Iran's oil flows. And that is certainly. one option that is being discussed. Now, there's reports in the Wall Street. Journal that President Trump's even. considering sending in troops to to. seize Iran's nuclear material. That. would be a a further step, wouldn't it? Yes, so remember there is about 400 kg. of highly enriched uranium. that went missing last year in June.

after the American-Israeli. attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. Nobody knows precisely where they are. The authorities suspect. they might be divided into three. locations, three separate Iranian. nuclear sites, Fordow, Isfahan, and Natanz that were attacked last year. So, there is a suggestion that there. might be some kind of special forces. operation. But all the military analysts. say this is would be hugely complex.

It's not just a question of a few. helicopters and special forces. This. would require a substantial military. presence on the ground to protect a. substantial job of work, which would. involve flying in diggers to dig through. the rubble. It would involve flying in. specialist. equipment to protect and store this. highly enriched uranium that is not the. safest of the stuff. And that would have. to be either neutralized or diluted on.

site, which would take time, or it would. have to be picked up and taken out. Again, this would take time. These sites. are not easy to get to. They would. require substantial. helicopter rides that would require. refueling. You know, the potential risks. there are obvious. Okay, very difficult. Let's look at the one that's slightly. easier, but still problematic, taking. Kharg Island. How might the Iranians. respond? Well, the Iranians have already. said that they are putting a lot of. defenses on that island already. Yes,

the Americans have have done one attack. already. to try and take out some of its. defenses. But that the Iranians say that. they are reinforcing those defenses. Any. American operation would largely, the. assumption is, have to be an air. deployment rather than an amphibious. one. Because, obviously, an American. ship full of Marines to get alongside. Kharg Island would have to go through. the Strait of Hormuz, which, as we know, is heavily defended. by the Iranians at the moment. And the. Americans might not want to do that. So,

if that is the case, there's a strategic question for the. Americans. Do they try and use a local. airbase in the region, in a neighboring. country, say Kuwait or somewhere like. that? Would that permission be. forthcoming? Would would a local country. be willing to allow the Americans to use. their territory to attack Kharg Island. for fear of avoiding Iranian. retaliation? Then there's the question. of, you know, yes, is it possible? Well, the military experts say yes, it would.

be possible, but casualties would be incurred. And. then the longer you hold any land, the harder it becomes because eventually. some Iranian attacks would get through, some missiles, some drones. The. Iranians, one would assume, they've. already threatened to attack, to send. American troops to burn in hell is the. rhetoric that the Iranian regime is. using at the moment. So, it would be a. hard fight. It would would require. resupply of munitions, people, medical.

evacuation. So, the American military. experts say it's it's doable, it's. possible, but it comes with substantial. risk. Okay, bearing in mind all those. factors, what are the advantages to. President Trump's position if they do go. and take Kharg Island? As I said, 90% of. Iran's oil flows through that terminal. The reason being is that it's very very. deep there, so that the the big massive. oil tankers can get in alongside, get. take on the oil very quickly, and get. out.

They didn't have to go close inshore. through straits and and narrows that are. really hard to to navigate. That is a huge source of revenue for. Iran's economy. >> Even now? Even now. Iranian oil has not. been stopped flowing south through the. Strait of Hormuz, and it continues to flow. And it remains a huge source of revenue, not just for the economy, but also. specifically for the Iranian. Revolutionary Guard Corps. And so, the.

argument for seizing the island would be. that it would somehow give the Americans. some leverage over Tehran and say, "Look, if you want Kharg Island back, well, you've got to reopen the Strait of. Hormuz." That is the argument. How much. it sustains remains to be seen. How. influential that thinking is on. decision-makers in Tehran, again, remains to be seen. But that would be. the primary aim of taking this island. In other words, it's sort of it would be.

an attempt by the Americans to escalate, to to reshape the dynamic of the. conflict. That's what they would hope to. achieve. But if they seized the island. and stopped Iranian oil getting to any. markets, that would just push up prices. even further, wouldn't it? It would push. up prices even further, but the argument would be is that it's. it's it's an escalate to de-escalate. Because if the argument would be is that. if it worked and Iran said, "Okay, traffic can flow through Hormuz once.

again," then you'd say, "Okay, it was. worth it as a tactic." But yes, in the. short term it would have a. a short-term impact, also a long-term. impact if the facilities there were. substantially destroyed. Because, obviously, it would just take a long. time for that sort of material. infrastructure to get rebuilt for the. future. And even if they succeed in in. taking the island, the Iranians still. have to agree to negotiations. Are there. any talks going on at the moment? Well, talks I think would be pushing it. And. there are messages are being sent.

largely via. Pakistan. So, there is a form of. communication going on. Talks I think. would probably be pushing it slightly. And what we know is that at the moment. both sides are demanding maximalist. demands. And so, the gap between both sides is. huge. And at the moment, you know, Donald Trump says that he's. very optimistic about talks and he. thinks they're going making progress. A. lot of other people beg to differ. And I.

think the key thing to understand about. Iran's mentality here is is it going to. respond to American pressure by seizing. Kharg Island. Because at the moment, this is a war of choice for the. Americans. They have chosen to do this. alongside the Israelis. Whereas, for the. Iranians, this is about a more. existential question. This is about. survival as a country, as as a regime. And the question remains, are they open.

to the sort of economic pressure that. seizing Kharg Island would involve, or are they in a different place when it. comes to their own calculus? James, thank you. James Landale, the BBC. diplomatic correspondent. If you like. this episode, please subscribe here on. YouTube. If there's anything you'd like. us to cover, leave a comment below. And. for more international stories, download. the Global News podcast wherever you get. your BBC podcasts.