What comes next inside Iran? | Global News Podcast

Hello, I'm Ankur Desai. Welcome to the. Global News podcast on YouTube, where we. go behind the headlines of a story and. tell you why it really matters. On this. episode, we are discussing the US-Israel. war against Iran. And after the fall of. the supreme leader Ayatollah Ali. Khamenei, we're going to discuss what. happens next. Will there be regime. change or a change of regime? A. difficult, complex question to answer, but thankfully, we have our chief. international correspondent Leese du Set. with us. Now, Leese has covered this.

region extensively and spent time there. as recently as last month. So, the. perfect guest to have on this program. Leese, thank you so much, as always, for. your time. Like I said, a complex, difficult question to answer, but regime. change, change of regime, what do you. think will unfold over the coming days. and weeks? It means very different. scenarios unfolding in Iran, and I think. anyone who has followed war, and. unfortunately, there are all too many. wars around in our time, once they are.

unleashed, they are very difficult to. control and acquire momentum on their. own, particularly in a war of this. magnitude, where. Iran understands now, and I heard this. when I was in Tehran last month, from. the deputy foreign minister, who said, "If the war is existential, it will be. on a completely different scale." And. the way President Trump and the way. Prime Minister Netanyahu continues to. talk about it is that they're going to. do the military operations, they'll do. their job, and then it's up to the. Iranian people to do their job. And.

President Trump says, "Once our bombing. has finished, go into the streets and. take over your institutions.". There's a long way from that statement. to what what a scenario in which the. Iranian people rise up and take control. of the institutions. And in the middle. of that is a very complex political and. security structure in Iran. And even. though we've often talked about how it. is weakened, it is still robust. It. hasn't cracked. >> Still fights back. There's still there's.

it's fighting back. There is no there in. the June war of last year, the 12-day. war, there were no mass defections. There were no cracks as far as we could. see um in the clerical order. Uh I've. heard uh Iranian observers saying if. there were to be defections, if there. were to be people stepping forward, it. would have [clears throat] been that. morning of of of Saturday when it was. clear that the the leader was gone. So, I think it's too early to say exactly. how this will unfold.

When it when it comes to Iran, they're. they're fighting back. The security. chief has said that we are ready for a. long war. What do Iran's leaders really. want to happen next? They want to inflict as much pain as. possible on everyone who and every place. which is in their reach. They want to. increase the price. You you we've. broadcast the statements the alarm the. shock in many ways of the Arab leaders. including in the Persian Gulf. They who.

had worked around the clock trying to. convince President Trump not to embark. on military action. They failed. And now they see themselves the target. and I put this question to Iran's. foreign ministry spokesperson Isma'il. Baghaei on the first day of the war to. say you're losing the allies you really. need in this in this moment. And he said. it is not we are not retaliating against. our neighbors in the region. We are. acting in self-defense. And Iranian authorities even as they are.

under attack. want to project stability. They want to. project business as usual. They want to. project that there is a seamless. transition. So, as soon as they. confirmed and as you remember there were. hours in which they officially denied. it. As soon as it was confirmed that the. supreme leader had been killed martyred. as they would say, then immediately. under the constitution a three-man. interim leadership council took charge. The current president, Masoud. Pezeshkian, who is a reformist, the head.

of the judiciary, who is a hardliner. Mohsen Ejei, very, very hardline, and a. jurist of the the Guardian Council, whose name is Ali Reza Araqi. Those. three people are now in charge. And they will be in charge while the. Assembly of Experts experts and 88. roughly 88 member council, a very senior. clerics, specially chosen and vetted, do. what is one of their main tasks, possibly their only real task, which is. to choose a new supreme leader. Now,

right now there's lots of discussion, how can 88 clerics meet when with the. strength of Israeli intelligence and. American intelligence, they'll know. where they are. Would they really risk. meeting and if it's not a kind of a. assembly that they meet with a Zoom. call? So, there is a a sense in which that. even though we heard from the foreign. minister Abbas Araghchi that that choice. will be made in a matter of days, that. perhaps this three-member interim. leadership council could stay on for. longer. And I should emphasize that this.

Assembly of Experts could choose an. individual to become the supreme leader. or they could choose a council, a new. leadership council so that there would. be a coalition of leaders. I've seen also in the last few days a. lot of protests from Shia Muslims as. well across the region protesting, you. know, some of them saying that they've. been orphaned after the death of the. supreme leader. It's going to be. interesting to see. what unfolds when it comes to people. there and what they want to happen. How. to summarize the will of the people of. Iran, the people who have lived for 47.

years under an increasingly hardening. and repressive Islamic Republic of Iran. That last protest in January, which was. nationwide, was put down with. unprecedented force, the worst lethal. force in the history of the Islamic. Republic. I was really stunned when we. went to Tehran and saw how raw the anger. and pain was. Even asking a general question, "What's. the main worry on your mind?" not.

knowing how much people wanted to talk, but when they were sure that their. identity would be protected, the emotions spilled, the tears spilled, the the the angry questions, "How many. How come so many young people have been. have had to were killed?". "I want significant change." Even people. marching up to us in the middle of a. market saying, "I want my voices to be. heard. I want this regime to end. I. want" and I've never heard this before. in all my trips to to Iran since 1989,

since in fact since the beginning of. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's. term in length of time in office, "I want my country to be attacked. because it's not nice," they said, "but. it's the only way we can bring about. change." And yet while there are as far. as we can see so many Iranians who. revile. this this regime, there are those who. revere Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who saw. him as a spiritual leader who for many. Iranians of a younger generation of of. of of a certain generation were the was.

the only leader that they knew. So it is. very much a country at a crossroads. pulling in different directions. And. they're going back to your first. question, there has always been this. anxiety among Iranians, even those who. would like to see change, not wanting. their country to be plunged into the. kind of chaos and collapse that they see. in their neighbors. They see in Iraq, although Iraq is stabilizing a bit. They. see in Libya. They see what happens when. there is a foreign intervention.

And so for them they want to this is. they want to see change in the regime. They want to see reform. But there are. those who basically feel the only way to. make their lives better, to bring Iran. into the international community, to not. have this kind of standards, to not be. led by political leaders who spend. untold sums of money on foreign on. foreign proxies and partners right. across the region and create even. even greater problems for Iranians in. their in their daily lives. Donald Trump.

wants Iran to follow the model of. Venezuela, for example. He himself, President Trump, has talked about the. fact that some Iranian leaders are. willing to talk to him as well. So, could we say that the regime stays. roughly the same, but it could be more. pragmatic? Or. is that just too simplistic to even say. that? We're back to the question with. which we started. Is it about changing. the regime, or is it about regime. change? President Trump gave a 6-minute. interview to the to the New York Times. And in that small little window. where he spoke, he mused that he could.

do all of those. That it could be about. regime change, about the people of Iran. taking their destiny in their own hands. He as he said in his speech, the best. chance in generations. He talked about. he could possibly talk to Iranian. leaders if they came came forward. He. also talked about the Venezuela. scenario, which the military action. removed the president, Nicolas Maduro. His wife went along, too. They're now. facing trial in New York. No American. military casualties. And the vice.

president, Delcy Rodriguez, steps up. She becomes the president and is now. working with the United States of. America and of course providing access. to the oil. President Trump described. the Venezuela option as the perfect. scenario. And it is true that a new supreme leader. could emerge who is less hardline, less. hostile to Israel and and the United. States, less suspicious. of the West, less ready to spend all. that, you know, millions of billions of. of Iran's of Iran's money on foreign.

partners and proxies. There could be a a. supreme leader who takes the country in. a different direction. But the whole. apparatus of the Islamic Republic is. still there. Most of all, the forces. which are expected to play an absolutely. pivotal role, no matter who takes the. top spot, whether it's one or as I. mentioned earlier a a council. And that. is the Islamic Revolutionary Guard. Corps. They were formed in 1979 because. the new leaders didn't trust the army. They thought it would be too still too.

loyal to the Shah. They have one goal, which is to protect and to preserve the. Islamic Republic. And 47 years on, for. many of them, particularly at the top. levels, it also means preserving their. privileges. They now dominate Iran in. terms of the the economy and the. security, and they are very ideological. But Iranian history also has another. lesson for us. During Iran's um. absolutely punishing war, eight-year-long war with with Iraq in. the 1980s, at the end, the revolutionary.

leader, the first one, Ayatollah. Khomeini, used this expression that he. would agree to a cease-fire and he would. drink from the poisoned chalice. In. other words, the survival of the Islamic. Republic is at stake. and therefore I have to save it. Is our Iranian leaders now thinking that. in this existential battle, as we fight. for the survival, we're not They know. they're not going to win a a a straight. military war with the mightiest army um.

in the world, the United States backed. by Israel with all of its in. intelligence assets, it wants to. survive. Survive the war, survive with. the Islamic Republic. How far are they. willing to go? It's only the beginning. of day three. Lisa, thank you for your. time and expertise, as always. That is. Lisa to set, our chief international. correspondent. For more stories like. this, do check out our global news. podcast. You can find it wherever you. download your podcasts from and do like. and subscribe to this channel and leave.

a comment below if there are any stories. you'd love us to cover in the future. For now, thanks ever so much for your. time and company.