Trump tries to outdo Obama's Iran nuclear deal | Global News Podcast

Welcome to the Global News podcast from. the BBC. I'm Celia Hatton and today I'm. joined by our diplomatic correspondent. Paul Adams. Paul, there's still so much. to be decided as the US and Iran try to. hammer out a nuclear agreement as part. of their extended ceasefire. What are. the main sticking points we're seeing. now? >> Well, I think Celia, it's probably worth. just looking at what the memorandum of. understanding that was signed last week. actually says about the nuclear issue. It's not a great deal, but it is. important. It says that Iran reaffirms.

that it will not attempt to develop or. procure a nuclear weapon. That's. something that Iran has been doing. frankly since the 1970s. So, that's not. really new, but it is an important. statement nonetheless. Then it says that the two sides agree. and I'm going to quote here cuz it's you. know, it's important to get the language. right. The two sides agree to resolve. the disposition of stockpiled enriched. material. That is a reference to the. estimated 440 kg of uranium hexafluoride.

which has been enriched to around 60%. Highly enriched uranium essentially. Plus other amounts enriched to lower. levels. And then returning to the quote, with. the minimum methodology to be down. blending on site under supervision of. the IAEA. In other words, that that. highly enriched uranium needs to be. reduced in its strength either through. down blending as it's known in the. business in Iran or where else. And that.

that is the key to the lifting of. sanctions. As for Iran's future right or. ability to enrich uranium, that will be. the subject of a final agreement. >> The two sides, the US and Iran, seem to. be in deadlock on one big issue and. that's allowing international inspectors. to visit Iranian nuclear sites. What. have they been saying? >> Obviously, this will be an important. part of any deal.

And it is perhaps the first thing that. has come up as. a potential stumbling block. And I think. it is worth saying from the outset that. this is going to be a long and. contentious process. And we are likely. to have many, many days in which the two. sides say very different things about. the same subject. So, what Donald Trump. said on the question of international. inspectors, and again, I'm quoting here, and this was from. Tuesday, "Iran has fully and completely.

agreed to highest level nuclear. inspections long into the future.". Brackets, infinity, double exclamation. mark. This will ensure nuclear honesty. Now, the Iranians, for their part, said. that there was no such agreement, that. they had not even been in touch with the. IAEA, the International. And that. what were described as sort of boasts. about the what was going on in the. negotiations weren't going to help the. process at all.

The head of the IAEA, Rafael Grossi, has. said that enrichment sites will be. visited. But that And they haven't been. visited, by the way, since the middle of. last year. And what he said is, "We will. have to inspect whether this happens the. day after tomorrow or in a week or in 10. days. It's important, but not essential. This is going to happen. Inspections are. absolutely vital for this process. No. one is going to trust Iran to do things. without international eyes on every part.

of the process. So, it is absolutely. vital that this will take place. We. don't yet have the arrangements for that. in place. >> And of course, we have to remember that. Iran has allowed these inspections to. take place before under past agreements, right? >> Indeed. That was the case under the deal. that was reached in 2015. The JCPOA or the Iran nuclear agreement. as it was known for short. Uh this was. negotiated. uh under the Obama administration, but.

also with the input of the uh other. permanent members of the UN Security. Council, Russia, China, Britain, and. France along with Germany and the EU. So, it was a a really international. effort with negotiations that went on. for a couple of years and resulted in a. very long and very detailed agreement. And part of that was that the IAEA. should be involved in the inspection of. the process. And until Donald Trump. withdrew from that agreement in 2018, uh.

essentially that was what was happening. Uh the the International Energy Atomic. Energy Agency inspectors were in there. able to monitor the process. And on and. off and with reducing effectiveness, it. has to be said, after he withdrew, they. remained there until last year. >> President Trump famously withdrew from. that earlier deal that was reached in. 2015 by the Obama administration saying. that he could strike a much better one. How likely does that look right now?

>> Look, I think people are right to be. skeptical. Uh Donald Trump is not known. for his attention to detail. He does not. have a team of experts, you know, well. versed in this very complicated set of. issues to do with Iran's nuclear. program. Uh and uh you know, he he he he he may. find that his attention moves on to to. other matters. Having said that, he he is utterly. determined to to to be able to to turn. around to the American public and the.

world at the end of this process and say. to them, "I've done a deal that is better than uh. the deal that I walked away from in. 2018, better than anything achieved by. Barack Obama." He is, I think it's fair. to say, obsessed with the idea of having. a better legacy than Barack Obama. And. so, he certainly has a personal. motivation for this. And I think there. is one other thing that is also worth. bearing in mind, which is that. that this is not a process being. embarked upon from scratch. If you think.

back to the 12-day war last year, which. again Israel and the United States. attacked Iran, uh. there was enormous damage done to Iran's. nuclear infrastructure at the time. That. is why the 440 kg of highly enriched. uranium are thought to be buried under. the rubble somewhere. That's it. That is. why there has been no enrichment of any. kind, no centrifuges spinning, no uh. meaningful work on Iran's nuclear. program since those strikes. So, this is.

not a process designed to halt a a. well-functioning. nuclear program such as such as we saw. in 2015. Uh this is a an effort designed to. capitalize on damage already done to. Iran's nuclear program. And I think. partly for that reason and, you know, Donald Trump's ambitions, we should at least give this process a. chance. >> What do you think Iran would be happy. with at the end of the day? What does it. want out of that part of the deal?

>> Well, Iran has always insisted, one, that it is not uh trying to acquire a. nuclear weapon. And at various times, uh. that has seemed plausible. At other. times, it has seemed questionable, particularly as it has uh raced to. enrich uranium to much higher. uh levels than required for a civilian. program uh since 2018. Um but it also says that it reserves the. right that it that it it has the right. to enrich uranium as a signatory of the.

nuclear non-proliferation treaty. Uh and. so, it is highly unlikely to give up. that right uh as part of this deal. Now, part of the JCPOA, the 2015 deal, uh res- put restrictions on Iran's uh. abilities to enrich uranium. It's. restrictions on its entire program, but. ones that expired after 15 years, basically after 2030. And that was the basis for a great deal.

of criticism by Donald Trump and other. critics of the JCPOA. They said, "Look, this is merely putting off the problem.". So, any deal struck by this negotiating. process will have to address that issue. To what extent and when will Iran be. allowed to pursue any kind of nuclear. program? If you listen to Donald Trump. at various times, he's indicated that. Iran should never have that right. At. other times, you have a recognition that. Iran probably will have to have some.

kind of uh ability to pursue a program. So, the question will end up being how. long will the restrictions on Iran's. program be in place? And And again, that. comes back to the whole question of. Donald Trump wanting to be able to turn. around to his supporters and his critics. and say, "Look, the deal I've struck is. better than the one that Barack Obama. struck.". >> It's interesting, Paul, because you're. our diplomatic correspondent. You've. watched you know, these kinds of. negotiations go on over the years.

A lot of people say that the Iranians. are some of the world's toughest. negotiators. So, even if Donald Trump. wants to get a deal over the line, it's. going to take a long period of time. Would you agree with that? That they are. some of the toughest negotiators he. could be facing right now? >> I think it's generally acknowledged that. they are exactly that because they've. had a great deal of practice. They've. been an isolated. uh country uh pursuing their own. security and their regional strategy in.

the teeth of formidable international. opposition for a very long time. And all. the while trying to preserve the Islamic. Republic. Uh and so, yes, um they are. battle-hardened both militarily and. diplomatically. And I think some people will will argue. that, you know, what Donald Trump. describes as regime change is perhaps a. regime toughening that they that they. the new breed the new guard in in power.

in Tehran. They're not the Revolutionary. Guard. They They're people who grew up. uh in the Islamic Revolution. They're. less interested in the revolutionary. rhetoric, perhaps less interested in. some of the, you know, the strict. religious. uh aspects of the revolution and more. interested in uh statecraft, in. preserving the regime, and in uh also. preserving and enhancing Iran's uh. reputation and power. uh as a regional player. At the moment, we're in a 60-day process. That's ticked.

down a few days now. It is open-ended. The memorandum of understanding says. that if both sides agree to continue, they will. I think most people think. that it is likely to go on much longer. than that. Question is, can each side. maintain to their own satisfaction a. sense of momentum, of achievement, or at. some point does the whole thing break. down? You know, then there are multiple. reasons why it could do that, whether. it's the ongoing conflict between Israel. and Hezbollah in Lebanon, or a.

fundamental breakdown over the terms of. what a nuclear deal uh should look like. All of these things could wreck it. >> The BBC's diplomatic correspondent Paul. Adams. And if you'd like to hear more. from the Global News podcast, click the. link below. Thanks for watching.