Trump and Iran reach tentative deal | Global News Podcast

Welcome to the Global News podcast from. the BBC. I'm Jon Hill, and joining me. from Washington is our State Department. correspondent Tom Bateman. And after. weeks when President Trump kept. promising that a peace deal with Iran. was close, only for those hopes to be. dashed, we finally have a deal that's. been announced between the US and Iran. So, Tom, does this mean that the Strait. of Hormuz will now fully reopen because. President Trump hailed this deal with.

the words, "Let the oil flow.". >> Well, we don't know the answer to that, frankly, because I think what we're. seeing here is certainly a lot of. sort of celebration really from both the. Americans and to some degree the. Iranians that they are both suggesting. that they've got things that they have. demanded from this deal, but until we. get the actual text published of this. agreement, it's really hard to know for. certain where it will lead because both.

sides are really spinning this quite. hard to the extent that we're getting. quite contradictory messages over it. Now, from what was being briefed by the. administration here in Washington late. last week, clearly the primary purpose. of this agreement is to reopen the. Strait of Hormuz in return for the. Americans lifting their naval blockade, but I would say already we're seeing. some. discrepancies between the two sides over. even what reopening the Strait of Hormuz. actually means. I mean, President Trump.

has gone on social media to say the. Strait is now open, that ships are. passing, but the Iranians have said that they. will or they intend to impose what. they're calling service charges for. ships passing. The Americans will interpret that as. tolls, which they have said are not part. of this agreement. There will not be. tolls imposed by the Iranians. So, already that sticking point appears to. be coming into friction. as this agreement is being announced.

>> Right. And also, you've got to clear the. mines and you've got to move those. hundreds of ships that have been stuck. there for weeks. So, even if. ships were allowed to start moving again. immediately without any restrictions, it. would take weeks, possibly months for. things to get back to normal when it. comes to oil and liquefied natural gas. supplies. >> Yeah, I think that's absolutely right. I. mean, the Iranians had said on Sunday. that there would be a 30-day period that. it would take that time for the strait. to reopen. And of course, there is this. whole issue of demining that the.

Americans have referred to. When. President Trump initially announced the. deal, he said, as you said, you know, the sort of proclamation, I hereby. announce the strait is open and let the. ships start up their motors and the oil. flow. Just an hour later, he sent. another message saying that the strait. would actually reopen on Friday when the. deal is due to be signed in Geneva. So, clearly things are not clear on that. front. This has been a highly. militarized environment. You know,

there's huge amount of American hardware. in and around the area. Ships have been. unable to pass basically because they. can't get the insurance coverage because. of the risk of Iranian drones or missile. strikes. So, clearly a lot to to take place. really before um the shipping industry. feels that necessary sense of security. >> And Tom, the agreement's not due to be. signed until Friday the 19th in. Switzerland. A lot could change between.

now and then. >> Yeah, I think that's a really. interesting point actually because um. although this is being pitched and and. sold by both sides as a basically a sort. of comprehensive deal to end the war, the. the Pakistani mediators, Shahbaz Sharif, the prime minister has called this a. peace deal. Um I I you know, it's already clear that. there is in within this. um. talks this week that are supposed to set.

up what they're calling technical talks. that should take place from Friday. lasting a couple of months about the. implementation of this deal. So, you've already got talks about talks. with the deal not being actually signed. yet. Uh and already I think the sense of. discrepancies even about the most basic. issues in terms of reopening the Strait. of Hormuz and lifting the naval. blockade. So, there's clearly scope for. uh things to go wrong. Um it does feel like there's momentum. towards signing it on Friday. I think.

both sides are. ready for that. But, the question is. then and what we've seen on the ground. and on the water is we've had. ceasefires. There was a ceasefire. announced on April the 8th. And yet and. President Trump said then the Strait of. Hormuz will now be opened. It wasn't. Um. you know, the Iranians have demand. sanctions relief, have demand uh say. that this will allow them access. immediately to oil revenues. They say. they're not going to enter into those 60. days of talks um unless the Americans.

honor that and they get um some of their. money up front. The Americans are. denying that's the case. So, we just. don't know. And you know, clearly there. is as as I say again so much discrepancy. about the way this agreement's been. characterized. Until we get to see the. actual published text, I think it's. really hard to know definitively where. this agreement has landed. But, clearly. there is scope already I think for. things to start to go wrong with it. >> If Iran succeeds in its aim of getting.

uh international uh sanctions uh lifted. or or some kind of relief on those. sanctions and if it succeeds in its aims. of getting its um billions of dollars. frozen in bank accounts abroad released, then. what people will be saying, "What was. the point of this war?" It's actually. not even gone back to the status quo. It's worse than it was before in terms. of the Iranian regime's influence and. strength. >> Well, I mean, the. the overarching aim for President Trump.

has been he has said to deny Iran the. ability ever to develop or acquire a. nuclear weapon. Now, you know, when the. war was announced, he went much further. than that. He effectively said and. called for regime change, a collapse of the. um. entire current government structures. that have been in place since the. Islamic Revolution in 1979. Um and to basically get a sort of pliant.

US-friendly. um administration in Tehran that would. do what what the US administration. wanted. Fundamentally, I think if you. look at the way this began began, I. don't think the Americans were entirely. in control of the timing of this. Clearly, although they deny this, there. had been some element of persuasion by. the Israelis um who killed the supreme. leader on day one. What seems to be in this deal broadly is. a set of commitments or broad. understandings.

um from either side about both Iran. committing not to develop a nuclear. weapon or to acquire one, but it has. always said that. The issue has been. around how you get a program in place to. make that happen and crucially to verify. it. Now, that is what um the Obama. administration tried to do in the deal. that was signed 2015-2016. President Trump violated the terms of. that when he was during his first term, effectively withdrew the US from it, reapplied sanctions onto the Iranians.

even though the inspectors said the. Iranians were in compliance. Um and so. that is why the administration is saying. that the application of force, you know, bombing the Iranians has forced them to. do has given the Americans the leverage. they want to ensure that they get a. stronger deal this time round. But what. officials who worked under the Obama. administration and notably Rob Malley. who was the lead negotiator for the 2015. nuclear deal has their argument is that.

the Trump administration is now in a. worse position than it was before they. started this war because what Iran has. shown is it can resist um this you know. full force of by the Americans and the. Israelis. It's still intact, although. you know very much eroded. conventionally, but it's shown that it. can effectively hold the global economy. to ransom. That put that creates huge. leverage um and so there is a big. argument and actually a concern among. many Republicans.

that um President Trump is going to end. up with potentially an even weaker deal. than the 2015 one. Now the. administration completely rejects that. and says this will be a tougher and. stronger deal. I think a big test will. be in the measure of how long President. Trump says that they can prohibit and. verifiably so Iran from enriching. uranium nuclear material to potentially. weapons-grade material. You know the the. Obama deal basically stopped that for 10. to 15 years. President Trump has said he.

could live with a 20-year prohibition. You know is he going to get anything. like that? Well already already he's. sort of rowing back a bit on that as. being an objective here. >> And Tom, as you say, a lot of people say. that the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin. Netanyahu was a big instigator of this. war. It was a a war that was jointly. launched by the US and Israel. And now critics of Mr. Netanyahu are. saying that Israel is a big loser from. this war because Mr. Netanyahu has has. failed to achieve his his aims of.

changing the Iranian regime, destroying Hezbollah in Lebanon, and. this is not going to help his his hopes. of being reelected later this year. >> Yes, absolutely. Critics not least. Mr. Netanyahu's political opponents in. Israel who, you know, we're recording. this on the on the Monday morning, you. know, been waking up today to news of this. proposed deal or this deal by the. Americans and the Iranians and are. absolutely excoriating Mr. Netanyahu.

saying that this is an utter failure. They believe it risks Israel's security. because it you know, it's it's it's. effectively the worst combination of. things for some of the critics of this. deal. Particularly in Israel who believe. that the war, you know, who will point. out the war has failed to dislodge the. Iranian regime, but at the same time created leverage in. a in a deal where. they are arguably putting more pressure. on Mr. Trump than was the case in the. first place. And therefore.

Mr. Netanyahu's opponents are saying. that this is a failure. Now that is. important really for two reasons. One is. that you have in Lebanon Hezbollah as a. an armed and funded ally of the Iranian. regime that it effectively acts as a. a deterrent force for the Israelis. attacking Iran. Um. that war there's no clear sign that that. war is coming to an end even though the. Iranians and the and the Pakistani.

mediators have said that that will be. included in the ceasefire. Um I think. it's clearly going to be the case and. the Israelis are already demanding that. they have in the language they put it. the right to defend themselves against a. Hezbollah threat. Now they have. interpreted that as basically being a. sort of one-sided ceasefire where. Hezbollah does not fire on the Israelis, but Israel, you know, continues its. occupation of southern. Lebanon and has continued even though a. ceasefire has been agreed with Lebanon.

to. attack Hezbollah. It says because. Hezbollah has been planning or has fired. into south into northern Israel. The other big issue politically for Mr. Netanyahu is he's facing re-election at. the end of this year. Now, as most Israelis have supported the war. with Iran, uh. as that war has looked when it has. looked as though it's achieving some of. the Israeli objectives, that has helped. Mr. Netanyahu's support, but I think. this is really going to damage him in. the polls in terms of going into that.

election probably in October this year. >> Tom, thank you very much. And if you'd. like to hear more from the Global News. Podcast, please click on the link below.