Is Trump's grip on Republicans bad for the party? | Global News Podcast

Welcome to the Global News podcast from. the BBC. I'm Valerie Sanderson and I'm. joined by Daniel Bush who is in. Washington. Daniel, today we're talking. about a Senate primary vote in Texas. which was won by the candidate backed by. President Trump against the incumbent. Republican. What does that tell us about. the grip that Donald Trump has on the. Republican Party? Well, Valerie, that's. the the key question here is how much. influence does President Trump still. have over the Republican Party now in.

the second term and the answer is quite. clearly a lot, right? We saw President. Trump jump into this runoff race a week. before voting to endorse. Ken Paxton, a controversial figure in. Texas, a core Trump supporter, not a. member of the Republican establishment. any longer against a very emblematic. member of that same establishment, John. Cornyn, who was a trusted lieutenant of. Mitch McConnell, of course the. long-running former majority Republican.

leader of the Senate. So, Cornyn sort of. represented that. establishment, more moderate Republican. wing that had controlled the party for. decades before Trump's rise to power. When President Trump made this. endorsement, you know, he said what he. typically says and and you know, in in. these situations that Ken Paxton um you. know, was a a loyal supporter, um that John Cornyn did not stand with. Trump, you know, when it counted most. Um you know, that kind of thing. In the.

past he's called John Cornyn a rhino, a. Republican in name only. So, you know, it's not that that Trump is is deeply. committed to Ken Paxton himself, but you. know, in Paxton Trump sees someone who. he knows you know, will vote with him, will support his agenda, will not be. critical of him. And it's not just. Paxton and we can talk about other. Republicans this cycle, but you know, anytime a Republican, Republican. comes out publicly and criticizes Trump,

you know, Trump often will hit back and. the most powerful way he can hit back is. by finding a primary opponent to support. and to try and remove that Republican. from office and in Texas he was. successful. And it's not just Texas, as. you implied there. I mean, other. candidates endorsed by President Trump, I'm thinking about Louisiana and. Kentucky, they've won too, haven't they? That's right. And in Kentucky, that's. another prominent example where Thomas. Massie is a House Republican who has. been increasingly critical of Trump.

Um, importantly, Massie was the. Republican who co-authored legislation. that forced the Department of Justice to. release files related to Jeffrey. Epstein. Um, so he has been a thorn in Trump's. side for a while and unlike in Texas. where Trump jumped in at the last minute. to endorse the MAGA candidate, in. Kentucky he's been openly critical of. Massie now for months. Um, and he saw. that as another opportunity to send a. message to the party not to publicly. criticize President Trump. And I can.

tell you, Valerie, that, you know, in in. conversations that I've had with. Republicans, this is top of mind to. them. You know, they know that, you. know, if they publicly, you know, even. so much as whisper that they disagree. with Trump's policies, with his. rhetoric, they know that this White. House is watching all of those comments. very closely that, you know, that could. invite a Truth Social post, you know, minutes, hours, days later that it could. invite a primary challenge. So, Republicans are very, very wary of. speaking out against Donald Trump. And.

yet, President Trump's approval ratings, Daniel, are at some of the lowest in. years, certainly since he came back to. the White House for a second term. So, how do you square that circle? Well, that's that's the thing that's sort of. difficult, I think, for for most people. to understand. It's how is it that Trump. could, on the one hand, have such low. approval ratings, on the other hand have. such a vice grip on the Republican. Party. And I think that the best way to. explain that is to dig into those polls, you know, very quickly and just to point.

out that yes, his overall approval. rating is now under 40%, 37, 36%. That. is very low. That is a worrisome sign. for Republicans in November. But, you. know, that also reflects, you know, a. lot of. displeasure with him among independents, among Democrats. If you look at the. Republican Party, his approval ratings. are still, you know, in any given poll, 70%, 80%, sometimes even higher. So, the. mass the vast majority of Republicans. remain, you know, with President Trump. Um, you know, that's good for him.

personally. It's bad for the party in. November where they're expected to. perhaps lose control both chambers of. Congress. It could be problematic for. whoever runs to replace Trump in 2. years. But for Trump himself personally, his political brand, his identity, that. is still something that is deeply. popular among the Republican Party. faithful. And for that reason, he still. has a lot of influence over the. Republican Party. And do you think he. would be sanguine about losing centrist. voters? What Trump cares about first and.

foremost is Donald Trump. His legacy, um, his role in the world, his influence. over the country, and so on. And so, you know, if he were. running for re-election, which. constitutionally he's not allowed to do, then he would be more focused, I think, on those centrist voters, those. independents. You know, can he do. anything to keep enough of them in the. fold to secure another White House term. Because that's not first and foremost. for him, it's less of an issue. And we. see that play out, for example, with. Iran, where polling shows us, you know, over and over again that the American.

public, including independents, including even some Republicans, are not. happy with this war. Trump sees that as. a core part of his legacy, and he's. willing to to continue this conflict. even if he may lose voters at home. So, I think that we'll see that over the. next couple of years. President Trump. will be making decisions that will be. less focused on the electorate itself. and more focused on sort of his own. issues, securing his legacy. So, the. short answer is no. I don't think that. for him and for his White House team, you know, those voters who might have. mattered in the past are are quite as.

front and center for him now. I mean, we've been talking for 10 years, haven't. we, about the Republican Party becoming. the party of Donald Trump? Do you think. President Trump himself sees this as a. work in progress? I mean, he's not done. yet. That's a very good question. Presidents have always tried to. influence and shape their party in their. image, right? That itself isn't new, but. you know, in the past it's played out. more privately. It's it's, you know, the. president and his political team at the. White House and outside allies. maneuvering, you know, behind closed.

doors, you know, hand-picking which. candidates they want, which candidates, you know, they don't want, not putting. their fingerprints on it because of. course, you know, if you publicly back. someone and they lose, then the. president looks bad. Trump has really. changed that playbook by doing. everything out in the open. So, he is, you know, on social media, in public. comment, always talking about. Republicans that he likes, that he. doesn't like, endorsing a lot of people, more endorsements than is typical for a. sitting president. And yeah, I mean, at. this point, if you look at the the. makeup of Congress on the Republican.

side, there are vanishingly few, you. know, so-called moderate Republicans who. are willing to stand up to him, only a. couple in the Senate and a couple in the. House. And if we look ahead for a moment. to to 2028, which will be here before we. know it, in the end of Trump's term, you. know, past presidents have followed a. particular sort of framework for their. post-presidencies, where they step out. of the limelight, they give the the. person replacing them, you know, time. and space to come up with their own. policies, form their own government, and. so on. And Trump is not doing that. Uh.

Trump, you know, most likely after 2028. will continue to endorse people, will. continue to hold rallies, and so on. So, we can expect, you know, this isn't a. finished deal. This is, as you said a. work in progress and he will probably. continue to try and shape the party. going forward. And do you think he has. changed the Republican Party forever? Even when he's not there, even when he's. not president? Forever is a is a big. word. I I think that the pendulum swings. back and forth in American politics and. if you look over look at history,

certainly sort of the modern period post. World War II, um. you know, the the both parties tend to. swing back and forth and the swings. typically take a couple of decades. So a. party will be sort of refashioned in the. image of um FDR and then that, you know, period lasted for 30 years from the. Great Depression and then the party. started changing in the 1960s or, you. know, Ronald Reagan remade the. Republican Party in the '70s and to a. certain extent it's still the party of. Reagan, but that lasted a couple of. decades and then Trump remade it. So.

it's undeniable that his influence, you. know, on the Republican Party and on. American politics is deep and it's. lasting. Um history suggests that a decade from. now or two decades from now, someone. else will come along, another. transformational figure who will. redirect the party in another direction. I think that's inevitable, but certainly. for the next years to come, if not. decades, his presence will be felt. And what about his successor? Doesn't an. awful lot depend on that person and who.

Donald Trump decides to back? That's right. And and that I think is it. it's an important point because that. will help shape his legacy, right? You. know, President Trump needs a Republican. to win the 2028 election because if a. Democrat wins, then we'll see what. happened with Joe Biden happen again. where the Democrat will come into office. and and literally on day one, you know, take out the pen and sign a multitude of. executive orders rolling back Trump's. trade agenda, his immigration policies, you know, because the vast majority of.

what Trump has done in his second term. has been by executive orders, not been. legislatively, which means that a future. president can undo it. So, you know, for. for Trump's policies to to live on into. the near future and for his sway over. the party to continue, it's vital for. him to have someone in office, you know, who at a minimum is a Republican who. will back most of his agenda and in an. ideal situation for President Trump, someone who supports all of his agenda. So, you know, whether that's J.D. Vance, the vice president who has clearly tied.

himself very close to the president, or. a Marco Rubio who in the past was an. opponent of his but has moved, you know, shifted to become a more loyal. lieutenant. Trump needs someone like that. Of. course, we have to note that that Trump. has talked about running for a third. term. He says it's a joke. It's. unlawful, but, you know, assuming he doesn't. actually try and do that, then he'll. have to pick someone else to carry his. legacy forward. Thanks, Daniel. That was. Daniel Bush. And if you want to hear. more on this story, listen to the Global.

News Podcast. Just click on the link. below. That's it from the Global News. Podcast here on YouTube. Thanks for. listening. Thanks for watching. Bye for. now.