Is Trump's 'Armada' going to attack Iran? | Global News Podcast

Welcome to the Global News podcast on. YouTube, where we go behind the. headlines to find out more about a story. and why it matters. Today, President. Trump says a big armada is heading. towards Iran in the wake of a deadly and. brutal crackdown on protesters by the. regime. I'm joined in the studio by our. defense correspondent, Jonathan Beal. Jonathan, tell us about the extent of. this Armada. No, I don't think it is as. big as the US Navy presence in the. Caribbean. I think I was told about 20%.

of the US Navy was uh in the Caribbean. when the US launched that military. operation. um in Venezuela. What we do know is that. the US already has a military presence. in the Middle East. It it permanently. has a naval presence. So there there are. a number of destroyers, three destroyers. already there. So I think it's the. arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln. strike group that has given you know.

President Trump reason to say that an. Amada has arrived. >> And the fact that they've arrived in the. region with those comments of President. Trump, there's no way this could be a. coincidence, is there? >> No, because we know that this carrier. strike group was in the South China Sea. It was not the area of operation that it. was meant to be in. But it was suddenly. diverted, change course. I mean, it's. taken, you know, best part of 10 days, maybe even longer to arrive uh where. they need to be now. Um but they need to.

be there because, you know, we've heard. President Trump up the rhetoric. Um. first of all saying that uh help was on. its way for the Iranian people. Um and. then also making clear now as he says. there's an Amada there. So they have. diverted considerable resources. We. shouldn't just look at the the naval. assets that have gone. I mean, as I. said, the US has a significant military. presence in the region, bases in Saudi. Arabia, UAE, um, in Jordan. So, it's the.

arrival of more military hardware to an. area which already had quite a lot and. then lots of aircraft arriving. And when. lots of aircraft arrive, you kind of. ask, well, is that preparing for strike. action? And you look for a couple of. things. First of all, what kind of. aircraft? Yes, fighter jets which can. deliver weapons. Uh a lot have turned up. uh in the Middle East in the last two. weeks. Uh but also tankers which they.

would need to refuel them. And then just. as significantly a lot of transport. aircraft arriving uh at those US. military bases in the region. A and if. you look at open source intelligence, some of those tank those transport. aircraft are carrying air defense. systems. Um, and the reason why you want. air defense systems is because you're. worried about retaliatory strikes. because Iran still has the ability uh to. carry out its own strikes. It's got a a. large stockpile still of short-range.

ballistic missiles, anti-hship missiles. as well. Now you know we don't have. detail from the US military as to. exactly what has been sent but you can. assume there will be of course um US. Army personnel on the ground uh in in. the region not not in Iran I'm saying um. there will be US Navy that the air force. we know has a large presence there at. the moment uh air defense systems and. probably the US space force to you know. to jam signals and the likes as well. So. you know this is a a whole force.

operation and um the US military which. President Trump is keen to remind us is. the most powerful military in the world. Um and I think he will be you know. building up his forces uh if he takes. that decision to carry out a military. strike which let's be honest is not. going to be as easy as it was during. Midnight Hammer because that was you. know focus targets. It was to try and. set back at least or to destroy Iran's. nuclear program. Specific sites, lots of.

aerial imagery. It's not clear what what what exactly. would he do this time round. >> Presumably though, this fleet of. warships will be using intelligence from. what? The Israelis as well as the CIA. Well, they certainly have a close. relationship and I think that you know. there have been certainly US spy planes. flying in the Gulf uh both manned and. unmanned um gathering intelligence. Um.

they have a considerable amount of. intelligence from the last time they. carried out strikes on Iran's nuclear. program and I suspect have been. monitoring the situation for some time. But you know if you're an enemy you will. disperse your forces. you will um do. your best to [clears throat] change the. position of ammunition stocks and. supplies, hard to move factories which. could be targeted. Um and if you're. Iran's leader, supreme leader, then you. probably will be taking precautions as.

to where exactly you stay and move. around. So um but I think if if if and. you know we have to discuss I suppose. the what are the potential targets. um there's a much longer list than. Iran's nuclear program and it is. probably much more difficult uh to. decapitate the Iranian regime uh if that. was President Trump's goal than it was. taking out some nuclear sites. >> But we know from last time they still. have bunker busting bombs socalled. Are.

they going to need them if there's an. attack now? >> Well, they could certainly use them. And. I I think it's worth remembering, you. know, while we focus on what the. military buildup in the region is, those. bunker buster bombs that were used uh. during Operation Midnight Hammer to. target Iran's nuclear program flew all. the way from the States. Those B2. bombers, um there was a lot of movement. of forces around which were. diversionary. Um, so essentially to try. to keep the enemy guessing and in the. end the the sort of the the fatal.

strikes if you like to Iran's nuclear. program were delivered by bombers that. flew all the way from America. Um, and. they've done that before. They could do. it again. So I don't think we should. just focus on what is on the ground in. the region, but realize that there is a. lot more firepower they can call on uh. from back home. I think you also got to. say this time that when Operation. Midnight Hammer happened, there was a. retaliatory strike. if you remember on. Aludi air base, a US military base uh in. Qatar.

>> seen widely as a token retaliation. [clears throat]. >> Well, and seen as a token because there. was plenty of advanced warning. They. they emptied the base of non-essential. personnel. They knew the missiles were. going to be fired. It has essentially. been telegraphed by Iran. This time it. may not be the case. And you know, I've. spoken to people who do wargaming. um in the Middle East and essentially. look at the stocks of Iran's um. short-range ballistic missiles, anti-ship missiles. Remember Iran has.

provided Russia with drones um Shahid. drones, an Iranian product essentially. They have lots of those. and Iran is. threatening retaliation and and that is. why you're seeing the US and I think at. the urging of uh countries in the. region, not just Gulf countries, Israel. too, to have air defenses in place if. Iran retaliates because it could still. potentially overwhelm some of those air. defenses. It has enough weapons to do.

that if it wanted to. But again, of. course, the danger for Iran is that just. escalates and then it all gets out of. control. Um, and the consequences for. Iran, which does not have a a military. as capable as the US, uh, will be will. be worse than for the US. >> You you've said the US has the biggest, most powerful military in the world, would Iran really dare take it on? >> So, I mean, it's a question, isn't it, of a regime survival? If the regime felt. it was, and let's let's be honest, it's.

it's been a in a perilous position with. the protests in the streets. Uh, and. it's taken, you know, pretty. It's more than robust. It's violent, repressive action to try and quell those. protests amongst its own people. Um, what would it do if it was attacked and. it felt that the regime was about to to. collapse, was in danger of collapsing? I. think you then got to ask, you know, if. they're prepared to do that to their own. people, then there is always the. potential that if they have the weapons,

which they do, they could take retaly. action. I mean, it is a sort of it is. not quite the nuclear button in the. sense of the real nuclear button, but it. is for Iran. If everything's going to. collapse and regime survival is. essential for doing something like that, then it's possible they will. >> I realize you have to qualify your. answer. You can't say it to the future, but is Donald Trump going to do it? >> I don't know. I, you know, let's be. honest, we don't know. You don't build up military force in a.

region um unless you want to have the. option of doing something. But we also. know that there has been talk of. negotiation that you know it is a. possibility that there may be kind some. kind of negotiation. But but you kind of. ask what's the end goal of negotiation? I mean ultimately I'm sure Donald Trump. would like to see the back of the. Ayatollah but I don't think that's going. to happen imminently. Um I think if you. look around the region and the. insecurity and it's not just the US that.

have been sending aircraft for example. the RAF Britain has sent jets to Qatar. for defensive purposes. A lot of. countries Gulf countries are saying to. President Trump don't do this and we. believe that he may have held off. military action for a while because uh. there were concerns about the. consequences in that region if he does. carry out military action. Israel. initially. expressed concerns about not enough air. defenses. I think it probably is, you.

know, on pretty much on the same page as. how it views um Iran the same as Donald. Trump. But the consequences for the. whole region and remember Donald Trump, he likes quick military action. He. doesn't like long wars. He's made that. clear. He has a policy of making America. great again. Um, and we've seen both in. Iraq and Afghanistan the cost of. America's long-term military operations. in a country which ultimately didn't.

have, you know, it had some success but. not huge. Certainly in Afghanistan, not. huge success. So, I think he will be. reluctant to get in a long protracted. conflict. He will ask, you know, and. then we're into the the realms of will. it be symbolic? um will it really jeopardize the regime, a regime which has survived its own. protests. So I think there's a lot to. weigh for Donald Trump and there's a lot. of good reasons not to do it even if he. sees good reasons to do it. So I think.

at the moment it is pretty hard. >> Jonathan, thank you. Our defense. correspondent Jonathan Beal. Plenty more. in the Global News podcast. Subscribe. wherever you get your BBC podcasts and. you can also subscribe to us here on. YouTube. And if you have an idea for a. story you think we should be covering. here, do leave a message in the comments. below.