Is Trump 'calling the shots' with Netanyahu? | Global News Podcast

Welcome to the Global News podcast from. the BBC. I'm Ankur Desai and on this. episode, I'm joined by Sebastian Usher, our Middle East analyst in Jerusalem. And today, we're talking about tensions. in the US-Israel alliance as Washington. tries to preserve its ceasefire with. Iran. Because Sebastian, Donald Trump, well, he appears to be growing. frustrated with Benjamin Netanyahu over. Israel's continuing conflicts in the. Middle East. So, relations uh seem very. tense at the moment between the two. leaders. >> Yeah, I mean, they've been tense for. quite some time now. There've been times.

previous to this conflict. I mean, if if. you go back to last year, the 12-day war. that Israel carried out about Iran, there was a moment when essentially uh. President Trump used four-letter words. about not just Iran, but about Israel, saying, you know, essentially to knock. their heads together. We then saw the. phone call that happened uh a week ago. now, which is after the Israeli Prime. Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that he. was giving the green light for the.

Israeli military to hit the southern. suburbs of Beirut. Now, under a. ceasefire that was in place in Lebanon, that was off-limits, just as for. Hezbollah, it was off-limits to fire to. northern Israel. So, that that that. threatened a big escalation in in in. that war. And in threatening that. escalation, it also put in jeopardy. whatever process has been underway to. try and get a deal between uh the US and. Iran to end the conflict. So, President. Trump wasn't happy about that. So, he. had this call with her from various.

sources that he used some very very. strong language. Despite that, though, uh on Saturday, Israel did strike the. southern suburbs of Beirut. And that. then meant that Iran, which had. threatened to retaliate, did. So, we are. in a new, and I think the most dangerous. flare-up there's been since the. ceasefire between the US, Israel, and. Iran uh started back in April. So, I. mean, this is really uh a case of very.

divergent. uh uh. issues and interests between the two. leaders at the moment. >> And Sebastian, to what degree can. Israel's actions jeopardize any form of. a ceasefire and and I think crucially a. longer-term deal? >> I think it's something that Iran is. another card that Iran is playing. Um it. it it it said from early on that the two. conflicts, Israel's conflict with. Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the bigger. conflict between Israel, the US, and.

Iran should not be separated. It's only. though I think in the last week or so. that Iran has really made that an. absolute key red line that it's. inextricably linked. Um so that is why. whatever Israel does now in Lebanon has. a potential effect on the wider conflict. and the efforts again, such as they are, to resolve that. I mean, we had right at. the start of the ceasefire if if if.

people remember. of the ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran, uh we had Israel within a few hours of. that launching a massive. series of strikes across Lebanon, very. deadly strikes. And that. immediately drew a reaction from uh Iran. saying that this is putting the the. ceasefire, which had only just started, in jeopardy. And again, the US President. Trump, Washington, stepped in to tell. the Israeli government to tell.

in in person uh Mr. Netanyahu, this has. to stop, to curb the intensity of its. attacks, which did happen. But we've. seen in the weeks would have gone by. that Israel has almost day-by-day. intensified its military operation in. Lebanon, particularly on the ground, its. ground operations. It's now moved its. troops deeper into Lebanese territory. than has happened for more than 20. years. So, as I say, divergent interests. President.

Trump, it seems that everything that he. says now. is is is is. desperate, really, to find some way of. reaching a deal with Iran to get out of. this war. with his head held high, being able to. declare some kind of victory, that that. something has been achieved with the. aims that he set out. While Israel and. the current government and the prime. minister, uh Mr. Netanyahu, still want. to pursue what they feel is a vital uh.

offensive against Hezbollah in Lebanon. to try and eliminate Hezbollah. And and. just briefly, there is a domestic. impetus now as well for the Israeli. prime minister. Elections are going to. take place within the next two or three. months, and he's in a kind of vice. On. one side, uh as I've been saying and and. and and you've been saying, you've got. President Trump telling him, "Calm down. Curb this. This is going to. topple the whole thing. You can't go at.

it in Lebanon against Hezbollah the way. that you've been doing. It endangers, you know, the whole process that's. underway." Inside Israel, as you can. imagine, Mr. Netanyahu's political. opponents are using this against him to. say, "You promised You promised the. Israeli people this time." There have. been many times before against. Hezbollah. "This time they would be. eliminated. Their threat would be. eliminated. This time Iran, its threat. would be eliminated. It would be done.". And it hasn't happened. So, how can you. have a ceasefire now? How can you have a.

ceasefire in Iran? How can you have a. ceasefire in Lebanon? You haven't. finished the job. So, he's getting this. this this pressure from both sides. Domestically, keep going. And from uh. the US, which is really the only voice. that matters internationally at the. moment to the Israeli government stop. >> What sort of leverage does Donald Trump. have therefore to try and force Benjamin. Netanyahu and Israel into a ceasefire? Would he be willing to ever withhold. arms or intelligence, for example?

>> That's a big step. Um I mean. potentially when when that step has. looked like it might be taken not not. just by President Trump, but by previous. US presidents, it normally hasn't been. always for a very short period of time. that some arms supplies were stopped. President Biden did that briefly. President Trump has from time to time. threatened that, but there's no real. sense. that that would happen. But I mean, it's. really this essential partnership that. Israel has from its perspective with the.

US that could be broken. And the way. that within the US Israel's been seen as. a special case that needs this sort of. support, this kind of backing. That. could also be broken. I mean, that in. some ways is what Israel is most. concerned about. But what if if that. broke, if that relationship broke, then. it would as things stand at the moment, it could be in quite a lonely place. So, I think that's what. any prime minister in Israel at the. moment, Mr. Netanyahu in in particular,

would be concerned about. And that's. where President Trump has the clout that. he has. I don't think he is like. threatening to Mr. Netanyahu, we're. going to take this, we're going to take. that. It's more, you know, you are going. to be treated like just any other. country. And I think with Iran, I mean, President Trump doesn't have any. particular clout except the military. threat that is there. But of course, if. President Trump did want to unleash a. major major military.

offensive again against Iran, he could. And of course, I mean, Iran has. withstood it. The leadership has has has. withstood it. Each time that that would. happen, it would it would, you know, break it down more and more. So, you. know, the Iranian leadership doesn't. want to bring that on to any. greater extent if possible. So, it's in. their interest to have this. brinkmanship, to have, you know, these. exchanges. I remember there've been. flare-ups between the US and Iran as.

well, but without going further than. that. >> Well, Donald Trump, he's been quite. strong, hasn't he, in saying that he. calls the shots and Mr. Netanyahu will. have to accept whatever deal he makes. with Iran. But that is also crucial. domestically for President Trump with. midterms on the horizons as well. So, there is a lot to unpack there. >> Yes. I mean, I don't think he's caught. in quite. as vicious a vise that uh. the Israeli Prime Minister is is now. The major difference between the two, although at certain times President.

Trump has made out that that he is. essentially been after. uh uh Iran for for for for many, many. years like Mr. Netanyahu, but he hasn't. made it the absolute core of what his um. message is, not just within Israel, but. to the world as the Israeli Prime. Minister has. So, he can, in a sense, maybe finesse his way out of this by, you know, being able to present some. kind of gain from this to the American. people and extricate the US from what.

does increasingly seem, you know, politically, you know, a quagmire for. him. I do think that Mr. Netanyahu, having looked at certain points as if he. was the one calling the shots, he was. the one who was gaining from this most, I think that position has somewhat. changed now. But, using that phrase, calling the shots, I. mean, the fact that uh President Trump. had, you know, was saying that just a. few hours ago, but yet Israel went ahead. and carried out these these strikes in. Iran. That also, you know, can make.

President Trump look weak. I I I I mean, I think when Iran carried out those. those those strikes, there was no way. that Israel was not going to carry out. some form of retaliation. The key, obviously, was was it going to be a. calibrated response to ensure that it. didn't lead to to to days, maybe weeks, you know, even another month of. conflict. And clearly, what President. Trump, what Washington was was trying to. persuade him, and it seems maybe. successfully, to, you know, fire back.

Iran has fired back today. It looks like. Israel, you know, fired back again, but. that exchange. could be over. We really don't know at. the moment, but it does seem that this. particular episode could perhaps be. over. But the issues that are around this, the. conflict in Lebanon, doesn't look like. it's going to ease off in any way. And. as long as that is in the situation that. it now stands, this could happen again at almost any. time. But as I say, the way that Iran.

has now bound that situation, that. conflict in Lebanon, to the wider. conflict, means that this this this kind. of trading of fire between Israel and. Iran could happen again at almost any. moment, and it could, you know, build. into something much bigger. >> Thank you so much for your time, as. always, Seb. We appreciate it. Sebastian. Usher there, our Middle East analyst. If. you'd like to hear more from the Global. News podcast, do subscribe below, and.

we'll see you on the next one.