Is the US-Iran ceasefire at risk? | Global News Podcast

Welcome to the Global News podcast from. the BBC. I'm Peter Ross and joining me. today is our diplomatic correspondent. James Landale. James, let's get right. into it. Over recent days, a flurry of. mixed messages about the US around. ceasefire. First, Donald Trump said a. deal had been largely negotiated. Then. he said he was in no rush for a deal. And then on Monday, US attacks on Iran. So, so what's going on? Well, I think. the first thing to say is that in any. negotiation, we should always be. cautious before. accepting the word of either side as an.

accurate predictor of intentions. Whereas actually quite often what. they're trying to do is is inject. momentum or or actually deceleration. into negotiation. So look, we should. always have a pinch of salt with what's. been said about it. That said, clearly. they have made some progress. Mike. Pompeo, the US Secretary of State, says. look, there is some. alignment now on some of the issues, but. it's going to take a few days for a deal. to be agreed. So clearly, there is some.

kind of, you know, possible outline. there. But as you say, this latest round. of US strikes. perhaps might make that more. complicated. The fact that the Iranians. are now saying we reserve the right to. retaliate and they claim they've already. shot down American drone. Means that. that sort of, you know, gives a degree. of. extra complication to these discussions. Do we know specifically what stage. you're at now? That what they're talking. about? Because I think some of the major. sticking points still remain. You know,

the Strait of Hormuz, around nuclear. capabilities. What are the Do we know. anything about the finer details? Perhaps is it a. a prolonged ceasefire? Something like. that? Anything at all? Well, first of. all, we don't know the precise details. because both sides have been pretty. enigmatic about it. They are leaking. bits and bobs to various. local media. Essentially, where we're at at the moment is a. question of sequencing. In other words,

what we're talking about is essentially. agreeing a deal that is called a. memorandum of understanding. In other. words, a broad statement of principles, which would sort of say, "Look, we agree. to end the war. There's going to be an. extension of the ceasefire for however. many days." Uh and under that under the. terms of that ceasefire, Iran would. allow shipping through the Strait of. Hormuz, the US would lift its blockade. of of Iranian ports. Uh and then a whole. bunch of issues will be shoved down the. line and parked for future negotiation.

Now, what's not been agreed and what's. not clear is precisely what are they. going to agree in the framework. uh here and what are they going to park. and leave for later? And what. commitments are there made and promises. are there made between the first stage. and the second phase? So, in other. words, it's not just a question or a. disagreement of of substance. It's also. a question about sequencing and timing. And do we think these latest attacks. from both sides, as we understand it, are going to have any effect on that at. all? Well, look, the ceasefire has been.

in place for some time now. It's always. been a pretty fragile ceasefire. Uh it has survived previous uh breaches. by both sides where at least where both. sides alleged the other side um breached. the truce. Um so, I think it's likely uh that this. truce will survive. Not least because. both sides have an incentive for this. deal to happen. Uh the the the American. side is under a huge political pressure. to get a deal. Uh but equally, the Iranians are under.

huge economic pressure to get a deal as. well. So, I think at the the moment, yes, there will be a certain amount. amount of. uh rhetoric and noise around this, but I. think at the moment the like I my. expectation is that is that the talks at. least will continue. And what role might the Abraham Accords. play in all this? Because Donald Trump. has said recently that he wants more. countries in the Middle East to sign up. to this as part of deal. Do you think. that's in this latest round of. negotiations or is it something that. might be further down the road? The. these the these things, the Abraham. Accords uh were agreed back in in 2020,

which essentially was a deal that Donald. Trump and his team helped broker uh. between um various countries, in. particular the United Arab Arab Emirates. and Bahrain, essentially to normalize. their relations with Israel. Now, um our. understanding is that uh. during some of the conversations that. Donald Trump had with Gulf leaders over. the weekend, he suddenly laid out of. nowhere this demand that he said was. mandatory that they had to sign up to.

this accord as well. So, we're talking. the Saudis, we're talking, you know, um. the Egyptians, the Turks, the. Jordanians, all the all of these. countries. Um uh now, all the indirect reporting. we're getting is that this was met with. a a certain degree of silence. Um. uh my interpretation of this is, look, the likelihood of the Abraham Accords. coming into play here is very low, given that for most of these countries, these Arab countries, the price for. normalizing relations with Israel is. substantial progress on the Palestinian.

issue, not more attacks on Gaza, not. more settlements in the in the West. Bank. Um so, I think it's unlikely to. make progress. I What some analysts are. inferring is that the White House is. just looking for anything that it can. claim as some kind of a victory uh as it. tries to exit this war. And what about what's going on in. Washington and political pressure on. Donald Trump? I mean, Trump wants to present some sort of, as. you say, victory here, but he's getting.

a lot of pressure from on his side as. well, from Republicans within the House. as well, is he not? Yeah, I mean, look, the American policy of of tackling Iran. was for many, many years bipartisan. It's no longer bipartisan. There is. there is open disagreement on on, you. know, on many fronts with um as you say. even Republicans coming out and saying. look, there is a real risk here now that. what happens is the [clears throat]. Americans withdraw from this conflict. and uh leaving the situation worse than.

it was when it began. Um you know, the. worst sort of scenario worst-case. scenario would be for example, Iran a. regime left in place, a regime that. feels more confident because it's it's. it's it's engaged in war with the United. States and it's survived. It's come out. the other side. Um it has this new. weapon called the Strait of Hormuz that. is now there forever and a day. Uh Iran. now knows that something that was. implicit is now explicit. Um potentially.

it could see the lifting of some. sanctions which potentially would not. just ease its economic burden, but would. allow Iran in theory to start funding. its proxy militias, Hamas, Hezbollah, organizations like that in the region. Um uh all the while, you know, its. ballistic missile program yes has been. dented by the American and Israeli. attacks, but it still remains and it's. still live. Uh and I think there are. some Americans who are looking at that. potential scenario and thinking.

this is not a good option. And one other thing that's further. complicating the issue I guess is it's. what's going on in Lebanon. The Israeli. attacks there which they say are in. response to attacks from Hezbollah. That's obviously complicating these. negotiations as well, who would have. thought? Yeah, I mean look, although you. know, the negotiations are largely. between the US uh and Iran but through. through the Pakistanis. Um the Israelis. are concerned. Um A because they are. concerned that as I just mentioned that. potentially Iran could come out of this.

uh stronger and more confident. Uh secondly, they are worried that uh. their fight against Hezbollah will be. caught up in any peace deal uh because. the Iranians are making it very, very. clear that they see. peace in the region as a whole as part. of the deal, not just between. Iran and the United States. So, they. want. the Israelis to agree a ceasefire as. part of this deal, which the Israelis. are very, very reluctant to do. So, I. think that there's there's an awful lot.

of concern in Israel about the way this. this war is going. And again, there's. not unanimity there. There are some who. believe that Prime Minister Benjamin. Netanyahu has got Israel into a worse. place than it was. But there are others. who say no, you need to keep this war. going. And that's why some are. suggesting that the Israelis are. stepping up their attacks in Lebanon. while they can before any deal is a. wider deal is agreed. A very complicated.

picture, but what happens next? Well, I. think the talks will continue. Um. because I say the underlying fundamental. is that both sides ultimately want to. get a deal here. But both sides are looking for something. that they can claim is is is seen as a. victory. And that's true of most of. these negotiations. At some point, I think the economic. pressures will will bite even further. The economic pressure on Iran to do a. deal because the blockade, the American. blockade, is causing a lot of difficulty.

to the Iranians. And I but equally, I. think that the scale of the economic. pressure. will transfer into political pressure in. Washington that will make the Americans. think which is where they're heading. that you know, a bad deal is is better. than no deal. Thanks, James, our diplomatic. correspondent James Landale. And if. you'd like to hear more from the Global. News Podcast, click the link below.