Is Europe's record heatwave a sign of its future climate? | Global News Podcast

Welcome to the Global News podcast from. the BBC. I'm Celia Hatton and today I'm. joined by our climate editor Justin. Rowlatt. We need his analysis because. today much of Western Europe is. currently baking in a heatwave with. temperatures significantly higher than. average for this time of year. Justin, can you put this into context for us? I've mentioned that we're an intense. heat facing an intense heatwave in. Europe right now, but is this really the. first of what's to come? >> It is, yeah. So, obviously we've always. had heatwaves. Um heatwaves in Europe.

typically involve high pressure systems. that kind of press down keeping the the. hot weather in place. They often draw in. in Europe weather up from Africa, so hot. air up from Africa, maybe from from the. west. Um and then they deliver clear. skies, so you get a lot of sunshine um. and a lot of humidity, so a lot of heat. So, we've always had those weather. patterns, we've always had those. heatwaves. What happens in a warming. world is that those heatwaves are now a. bit hotter and they last a bit longer.

and they happen a bit more frequently. So, what we're seeing is the extremes. getting more dramatic, not just a little. bit more dramatic. The world's warmed by. like what 1.3, 1.4 degrees Celsius, but. out at the extremes that change in. temperature pushes the extremes out even. further. So, significantly hotter. At. the moment here in the UK, we are about. between 10 and 12 degrees Celsius hotter. than we would normally expect to be in. June. And for a temperate country, that. is a huge margin. >> Okay, so you've you've taken us through. what we're seeing at this point in time,

but I know you've been speaking to the. weather authorities here in the UK to. get a forecast of what we could be. seeing decades from now. Can you take us. through what they told you? >> Yeah, so they did a really interesting. experiment. They looked back at a really. kind of celebrated heatwave that was. here in the UK back in 1976. Uh so, 50 years ago and they threw. forward they said if we got that kind of. heatwave, look at the weather patterns, put it into the computers. If we got. that kind of heatwave in the kind of uh. warmed world, the climate changed world. of 2056,

what would it look like? And here is. that forecast. So, they're saying. temperatures in England could peak at. 45° C, 41° in Wales, 38° in Scotland, 30° in. Northern Ireland. And that frankly. sounds like a weather forecast for a. different continent, maybe from Africa. or Asia. But that is the UK Met. Office's, the kind of reservoir of. expertise about meteorology here in the. UK. It's their best guess at a forecast. for the UK in just 30 years time.

>> So, was that taking a heatwave that. might occur naturally? We'd always see a. heatwave once in a while anyway, and. then you layer climate change conditions. on top of that. Is that what that. forecast. >> two things. One, yes, the the the. heatwave sits on top of a. occurs in a warming world and therefore. is naturally hotter. But but we're also. expecting to see more heatwaves, more of. these kind of, you know, the weather. patterns that cause heat waves and see. them last for longer. So, the extremes. are really pushed out. So, we see much.

more extreme heat in a warming world. >> You mentioned one noted heatwave in. 1976. I want to take us a little bit. forward in time to 2003. That was a. heatwave that took place across Western. Europe and it led to thousands of. deaths. Can you take us through what. happened in that heatwave and and what. we learned from that moment? >> So, that was that was a another European. heatwave. I mean, comparable to this. I. suspect temperatures probably a little. lower than we're expecting even this. week, but caused the death or is.

estimated to have caused the death or. played a role in the death of 70,000. people. So, huge death toll here in. Europe and a really kind of red warning. light that the kind of weather climate. change was bringing could have real kind. of health consequences even in Europe, which obviously is relatively speaking, um, you know, well cooler than other. parts of the world, shall we say? So, that was a real kind of warning, and we. should be quite careful about these. figures for heat deaths because, you. know, if you're a doctor and somebody. dies of a heart attack on a hot day,

what caused the death? Well, you're the. doctor, you say the heart attack caused. the death. You don't necessarily say, "Oh, and by the way, it was 35° C when. it happened." So, the the there's a. suspicion that actually the role of heat. is probably much greater in death on. really hot days than than is recorded. because there isn't really a mechanism. for capturing the role that it plays in. in ill health. >> Mhm. But even with that, you know, possible death toll of 70,000, that was. a real wake-up call, wasn't it? What. What measures did governments put in.

place starting at that time? What How. are governments across Europe trying to. counter the effects of heat waves? >> Well, it's a patchwork, and lots of. campaigners would say it is really. inadequate to the to the demands of the. kind of weather that we're seeing. Now, we get a lot more alerts. So, um. you know, Met offices around the world. issue alerts much more often recognizing. that, you know, forewarned is uh is it. means people are better prepared for the. things that are coming. I think I think.

you know, there's much more publicity. about how to deal with the heat, the. need to close your curtains and windows. on hot days, have a fan at night, hydrate, all of that stuff is much more. recognized. And there is a recognition. that the design of cities needs to. change, and you do begin to see in some. European cities a a real effort to put. more uh green spaces in there which have. a real cooling effect, that kind of. thing. A beginning to sort of recognize. that architecture needs to be changed. But you only have to go to a kind of, you know, new build area of London, for.

example, and you see these, you know, tower blocks that have been built with. glass windows. They often don't have. through breezes, and they become. incredibly hot. So, and there aren't. actually very good rules on, you know, the heat limits that should be imposed. that should be set for for homes when. they're built. So, we're a long way. behind, You know, we've got we've got a. huge backlog essentially. Over the last. 20, 30 years, we've built loads of those. kind of housing and that really struggle. people really struggle in the heat cuz. those places get so hot. There is an. effort beginning to be an effort to kind. of recognize that support is needed for.

people particularly if they live in, you. know, in in small flats with lots of. glass that they need places that they. can go that they can cool down. >> Mhm. I mean, how much urgency are you. seeing in these conversations? I mean, you've used the word begin a lot that. the the governments are beginning to. understand and recognize that this needs. to be done. In the conversations that. you're hearing, is that really is it being seen as an. emergency measure that needs to to to to. be enacted? >> There's a lot of pressure from. campaigners and like I say, there are. lots of countries have bodies like the.

climate change committee advising. government. The governments don't have. to take the advice and what we're seeing. is year after year, we've got another. report coming out tomorrow. Year after. year, they're saying, you know, what. you're doing isn't adequate. You need to. do more. And I mean, we've talked about. heat in homes, but you got to look at. heat on infrastructure. So, for example, the railway network here in the UK often. breaks down in hot weather. The rails. expand and the trails trains can't run. on them. So, there are all sorts of. other infrastructure that needs. attention as well. And you know, there. is a recognition that the government.

here and across Europe, across the world. isn't adequately recognizing the changes. that need to happen. This is long-term, large-scale, long-term expenditure where. the benefit isn't entirely clear. On a. hot day, you go, "Oh, it would be great. if we had air conditioning." When it. cools down, you're you know, there's. much less pressure on the government. So, it's quite it's quite easy to dodge. the the kind of long-term spending. commitments that this involves. >> Mhm. I mean, countries like India are. routinely recording much higher. temperatures up to 50° C. I know India. is a country that you know well, Justin.

I mean, how much worse can it get? >> I I mean, one of the key factors in all. of this is actually, yes, the heat's. really important, but also the level of. humidity. And the higher the humidity, the harder it is for our bodies to cool. down. So, I lived in Delhi and typically. in Delhi towards the just before the. monsoon, so in kind of May, June, it. would get very, very hot, like 48, 49°. C, but it would be quite dry and therefore. physically quite manageable. And I'll be. honest, we had air conditioning in our. home, which obviously made a massive.

difference. But it was kind of more. manageable. Then when the monsoon broke. and you had, you know, humidity, it. became much harder to to handle. So, one. of the key factors is how much we're. getting it. Humidity now is also a. feature of the increasing heat we're. getting, making it harder for our bodies. to to handle the heat that we're seeing. around the world. >> And just casting our thoughts far into. the future. I mean, we've been seeing. mass urbanization over the last few. decades. People actively leaving the. countryside, moving into cities. Could we see a reverse of that because. cities will just become far too hot to.

to handle in the summertime? >> I mean, you can see places in the world. where that could be true. You look at. somewhere like Dubai and you think, really, is that really a kind of. suitable infrastructure have built in. that place? There may be challenges in. places like that. We got to remember. when we think about these things, cities. are really efficient ways for human. beings to live and and interact and have. proved real engines of kind of economic. growth. Um and kind of massively raised. living standards and also have helped. engender kind of have helped lead to.

smaller family sizes. So, there are all. sorts of benefits of living in cities. Um uh it's relatively cheaper to provide. infrastructure in cities. So, there are. benefits like that, but yes, there is a. huge legacy challenge as the entire. world warms up where we need to make. sure that our homes, schools, hospitals, and other infrastructure is adequately. uh prepared for the kind of temperatures. we're going to see. >> Thank you, Justin. Our climate editor, Justin Rowlatt. And. if you want to hear more from the Global. News Podcast, click the link below.

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