How 'open' is the Strait of Hormuz? | Global News Podcast

Welcome to the Global News podcast from. the BBC World Service. I'm Will Chalk. Well, today we're looking at the Strait. of Hormuz and exactly what the situation. is there right now. We're joined by John. Donnison, our correspondent in. Jerusalem. So, John, we've seen the US. and Iran exchange strikes again over the. weekend. And at the heart of it was the. fact that Iran struck a cargo ship in. the Strait of Hormuz because it said it. was taking the wrong route. So, John, let's talk about those routes through. the Strait of Hormuz then. Why are they.

so important? >> Well, look, what America wants out of. this deal is for the Strait to fully. reopen. And that was clearly a priority. of President Trump given the damage. that its closure has done to the global. economy. It's meant. higher energy prices, higher petrol. prices, global inflation, higher. interest rates. So, it has really. affected the amount of money in people's. pockets for billions of people around. the world. However, what Iran wants is.

to administer how that reopening. happens. And what's been happening, according to the Iranians, is the. Americans have been routing ships closer. to Oman, which is on the other side of. the Strait of Hormuz from Iran. And the. Iranians say that's not acceptable. They. want to be deciding the route that they. say was set out in this memorandum of. understanding. And essentially, they. want to control who goes in and out. >> But you used the phrase that the Strait.

of Hormuz is open. How open actually is. it? Because traffic is nowhere near, is. it, the levels it was before this all. started? >> No. So, before the war, there were round. about 130 ships. So, tankers, cargo. ships passing through the Strait of. Hormuz every day. 20% of the world's oil. passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Now, we know that since the memorandum. of understanding was announced 2 weeks. ago. We think around 200 ships have.

passed out in total. So, nowhere near. those pre-war levels and there are still. hundreds of ships stranded in the Strait. of Hormuz. Sailors on board uh have been. there for months. They're desperate to. get out and despite America's efforts to. get ships moving, that hasn't really. happened and and. quite a high proportion of the ships. that have been allowed to leave have. been carrying Iranian oil because one of. the key concessions that the Iranians. got out of this memorandum of.

understanding was the lifting of oil. sanctions on a temporary basis on. Iranian oil. And that will allow the. Iranians to get billions of dollars back. into their economy, which has been hit. incredibly hard, of course, by sanctions. for years now. >> Well, look, there has been so much. discussion about what the aims of this. war were, what it's achieved from a US. perspective. Is it fair to say that one. thing it definitely has achieved is. almost woken Iran up to what incredible. bargaining power its blockades of the.

strait can have? >> Yeah, I think you've hit the nail on the. head there and I think what we've seen. over the weekend, where we've had Iran. carrying out drone strikes on tankers it. said have strayed out of the shipping. lane that they want, is Iran exercising. that leverage which it now knows it has. So, one of the questions that's still to. be decided when this broader deal is. concluded and we've got like a 60-day. ceasefire period supposedly now uh to.

negotiate that broader deal, is will it. go back to the status quo as it was. before the war when there were no tolls. for passing through the Strait of Hormuz. or will uh Iran start to begin imposing. tolls? And we've had uh different. messages from the Iranians over the past. few weeks, but certainly uh they have. said that things will not go back to the. status quo before the war. So, you know, that is quite a major loss for the. United States and frankly the global. economy.

>> In terms of a ceasefire more generally. in the hopes for a permanent deal to be. signed, can it feasibly go ahead unless the. issue of the Strait of Hormuz is. conclusively sorted out? >> Well, look, the reopening of the Strait. was clearly a priority for the. Americans. It was only really the. big achievement of this memorandum of. understanding because all the other more. difficult issues around nuclear program, its support for proxy groups such as. Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza.

were not resolved. Neither was the issue. of its ballistic missile program. So, you know, if this deal is going to. progress, then the Strait has got to. reopen. And I do think that on both. sides, both the Americans and the. Iranians, there is no real appetite. to resume a full-scale war. This has. been a very unpopular war in the United. States. President Trump has, of course, got crucial midterm congressional.

elections coming up for his Republican. Party. later in the year, in November. Polls. show the war has not been a winner for. them and they've been losing support, the Republican Party. And also. for the Iranians, of course, well, they. have been absolutely pounded by US and. Israeli military. So, there is no real. appetite for them to resume the war. either, but they are both trying to get.

the best deal they can. out for it for themselves. So, if we. keep seeing skirmishes, escalations in. violence like this, uh you could see the deal begin to. unravel. Although, we're hearing that. now an agreement has been made by both. the United States and Iran to try and. stand down from a military their. military positions to allow shipping to. resume. We'll have to see what happens. in the next few days and weeks.

>> Now of course John, this isn't just. about Iran and the US. There is Israel. and Lebanon to be concerned with as. well. So how much more complicated does. that make this? >> Well, it's a big potential complication. Iran has insisted that Lebanon must be. part of this broader deal with the. United States. But. Israeli troops continue to occupy a. large chunk of southern Lebanon, about. 5% of the country. And in recent weeks,

despite supposedly there being a. ceasefire, fighting has continued there. between Hezbollah and Israel. And of. course, Hezbollah have never signed up. to any sort of ceasefire. The ceasefire. was done by the Lebanese government. and the Israelis. So. you know, that also has the potential to. see these talks unravel. Now, since the. end of last week, we have seen a bit of. a de-escalation in violence in southern.

Lebanon. But as I say, Israeli forces. continue to remain there. And while they. do, that is completely unacceptable to. Hezbollah. It is going to be difficult. to keep a lid on the conflict there too. And the Israelis have stressed over the. weekend that they have no intention of. withdrawing their forces. from southern Lebanon. So it's another. factor in what is a very complex.

regional conflict. >> This all shows, doesn't it, just how. complicated this is. You mentioned 60. days to do it. I mean, what are the. hopes for these talks? And what are the. next steps for them as well? >> Well, just a short while ago President. Trump has put out on social media that. talks will resume in Doha in the Gulf on. Tuesday. I've not seen confirmation that. the Iranians are going to attend. We've. had announcement of talks taking place. at negotiations taking place before and.

then they haven't actually materialized. So, let's wait and see if that happens. As I say though, you know, all the. really difficult issues and we've barely. talked about that today, notably Iran's. nuclear program which was the whole. reason or certainly the biggest reason. for which Israel and the United States. said they were going to war. to dismantle. Iran's nuclear ambition ambitions. Well, that hasn't been resolved at all.

and we've only got initially 60 days to. do it. So, we're making pretty small. steps at the moment with quite a few. setbacks on the way, too. >> Thanks, John. That is John Donnison, our. correspondent in Jerusalem there. If you. want to hear more from the Global News. Podcast, click on the link below.