How is Nato preparing for the future of war? | Global News Podcast

Hello, welcome to the Global News. podcast from the BBC. I'm Ankur Desai. On this episode, I'm joined by our. diplomatic correspondent Paul Adams. Paul, the UK has announced a. multi-billion-dollar plan. That's in. order to bring its armed forces in line. with the future of warfare. So, just. tell us first up a little bit more about. it. >> The way the government frames this is. this is the in the midst of the largest. investment in defense spending for. decades. The problem is that they are working. from a low base.

The Prime Minister has said repeatedly. that the armed forces have been hollowed. out by decades of underinvestment. And. at a time when everyone from the top top. of the military leadership on down is. warning that this country is facing. very real and growing threats that need. to be addressed and quickly. With this. general belief that Europe as a whole. should be ready. possibly to confront Russian forces. within the next 5 years, which is a.

fairly, you know, terrifying prospect. >> It's interesting you touched upon Russia. there, the Ukraine conflict. Let's also. add in the Iranian conflict as well. How. much have these conflicts been. game-changers in terms of how. they use artificial intelligence, drones, and and and I guess. these plans reflect the lessons that. have been learned through those. conflicts and what, let's say, the West. needs to do in order to keep up to. speed. >> Yeah, they absolutely do. And you know, you wouldn't want to be a person drawing.

up any of these plans frankly, the. moment the ink dries on your proposal, you're finding that some some new. technological development has has if not. rendered your plans redundant, then at. least, you know, move things on a bit. And that has been the absolute lesson. learned in Ukraine. Drones have. absolutely transformed everything from. the smallest, cheapest drones to the. largest, most sophisticated unmanned. platforms. Because, you know, drones is. a is perhaps a slightly a subset. You.

people talk about uncrewed or unmanned. platforms, autonomous platforms. And. that could be, you know, a tiny drone or. a 100 foot long ship capable of. launching missiles and you know, and all. sorts of things. So, what we're going to see in this new. sort of vision of the military, at least. what the theory is, that we will have. all of the three armed wings of the. armed forces integrating this new. technology along with AI uh.

alongside existing kind of traditional. platforms. So, you know, unmanned vehicles alongside heavy armor. um. uh. unmanned aircraft flying in conjunction. with jets in the sky and out at sea the. same thing applying. Now, there are a. lot of people who are a little skeptical. uh because a lot of this sounds pretty. futuristic. We know from Ukraine that. some of this is tried and tested and you.

know, that that's a good place to start. Um but uh I think there are a lot of. people who are nervous that perhaps the. government is is is jumping into that. particular. line of thinking and perhaps sacrificing. some more traditional uh concepts in the. process. I mean, it clearly there's. going to have to be some kind of hybrid. and you hear that word all the time. Uh. and the details of that I think will. take quite a while to emerge. >> If you look beyond the UK then and NATO. as a whole, how prepared is it then for.

this new type of warfare? I've seen some. army generals saying that Vladimir Putin. has looked at the West and thought. actually there aren't many deterrents. there. So, therefore he's sort of. launched this war when he did. >> Well, you know, point number one, that. didn't go so very well for him um. because he took a look at what he. thought was a very weak enemy and turned. out to be a far more. uh enterprising and resilient than he. could possibly have imagined. The ripple effects of 2022. and the full-scale invasion. uh were felt initially, not.

surprisingly, in Eastern Europe, the. Baltics, Poland. These are countries. that have hugely increased their defense. spending, and they're the ones who have been. sounding the alarm bells about Russian. intentions most, you know, most. vociferously for some years now. I think part of the problem, the further. you get from from Eastern Europe, is the. more remote it seems to the general. public. You know, defense chiefs here in the UK. have been talking about these dangers. uh and illustrating these dangers for. some time now, but it still feels, I.

think, to the general public a slightly. remote threat. You know, the fact that there are. Russian vessels out at sea hovering over. undersea cables or or, you know, sabotage uh. operations being mounted by disaffected. teenagers sponsored by Russian handlers. in various parts of Europe. All of these. things feel like irritants, but they. don't feel like a kind of imminent. threat. And I think that is part of the. problem that the government has, because. the one thing that, you know, the.

general public is concerned about is the. cost of living, welfare, and all of. these sorts of things, potholes in the. roads. You know, Russian threats seem a. bit theoretical by comparison. And so, the government is juggling these. priorities, uh and depending on, you know, what sub-. side of the fence you're on, not quite. finding the right balance. Um but Europe. definitely is rising to the challenge. All the European NATO members uh are. now, in fact, all NATO members have met.

the 2% of uh of uh GDP, which was an. earlier NATO target. Some of them are. well beyond that. Um Poland is at 4.3%, Lithuania 4, the UK currently 2.31, Germany has just overtaken the the UK at. at 2.39 and then you've got countries. like Spain and Portugal lagging some way. behind. Of course, Donald Trump wants. his. >> Closer to 5%, right? >> Indeed. And that's a break. [clears throat] That's 3.5% on on core.

defense spending plus another 1.5% on. sort of. resilience, national infrastructure, the. kind of wider security. >> Right. >> uh picture. Uh and the government says. that it intends to meet that target and. that the latest pledges on spending are. nudging us in the direction of that. I think the government's critics argue. we're not really seeing a timetable for. meeting any of these ambitious targets. And that the targets are being discussed.

um but they're not convinced that the. government has really got a plan to meet. those targets. >> And with Donald Trump insisting on. countries to meet that 5% GDP target in. terms of spending on defense, um are you. are you seeing countries are pushing. quickly towards that target or are they. Are NATO countries still feeling as. though they will do it at their own. pace? They're not going to be put under. pressure by the US. >> Yeah, I mean there are some countries. like Spain who are, you know, actively. resisting American pressure in all sorts. of ways. Um.

you know, I think most people would say. Donald Trump has in a way done uh. European the Europeans a favor by being. pretty brutal about this uh and by. basically telling the Europeans, "Look, you've been freeloading on on American. goodwill since the end of the Second. World War. The time has come for you to. look after security in your continent.". That is now. uh a an an entirely accepted mantra. across Europe. Um we are we are we're.

hearing European leaders talking about. uh essentially. uh becoming the main drivers of NATO, the main funders of NATO, the main. organizers of NATO. thinking possibly of a time when maybe. the United States decides NATO is not. really its business anymore and it's. more interested in, you know, the the. the the Pacific. arena. So, there's a very real sense across. Europe that the the the countries of.

Europe, the EU, and and and Britain and. others. need to be taking more responsibility. for for their own security. And I I mean. that is an important part of Donald. Trump's legacy. Of course, he's not. going to be here. in a couple of years' time. and. who knows, [clears throat] the war in. Ukraine may eventually fizzle out and. this notion of of a kind of rapacious, dangerous Russia could start to fade. Right now, we're we're living through. the period where there's sort of maximum.

perceived danger. Who knows what the world would look like. in 5 years' time? Yeah, as you alluded. to that point about that Russian threat. in 5 years' time, could could could this. also be NATO preparing for a possible. war in the future and just having. deterrents in place? We we saw recently. reports come out of North Korea that. they are arming themselves, they you. know, with nuclear technology. People always worry about threats from, you know, further afield because there. are.

opportunities because of the. sophisticated nature of technology. moving so quickly that there could be. threats from so far away to countries, you know, on the other side of the. world. So, is this a sign of preparation. rather than prediction of of some sort. of a conflict? Yeah, I mean I think it's. it's definitely it's about deterrence. Yes, you're right. I mean North Korea I. think has ballistic missiles capable of. hitting the American mainland. You know, question marks about its. ability to to to stick nuclear weapons.

on top of these, but. we haven't we don't talk a great deal. about North Korea at the moment, but. it's certainly a continuing threat. We. we saw moments during the Iran war where. its ability to launch ballistic missiles. much further than people um were were. had had thought possible. You know, so. that there was a realization there that. those were that was a danger. But all. the focus really is on on Russia and on. Vladimir Putin and on the kind of the. rhetoric surrounding the war in Ukraine.

um and the sense that uh if you look. around Europe. and you you kind of start to tally up. these various hybrid dangers, exploding. parcels in a DHL warehouse, you know, which could have blown up on a on an. aircraft, Russian warships. um hovering over and inspecting, you. know, vital. um undersea cables and so forth. Um. the these are the kind of dangers that. people are identifying. I don't think.

outside of Poland and the Baltics, you. have a lot of governments thinking, "Oh. my god, Russia is about to invade on the. ground.". But we need to be in a position to deter. that and any other of the. more kind of hybrid threats that Russia. is is demonstrating on an almost daily. basis. >> Paul Adams there, our diplomatic. correspondent. If you like more content. from the Global News Podcast, do. remember to click on the link below. Thank you ever so much for your company. and we'll see you on the next episode.