How does Russia profit from the US-Israel war with Iran? | Global News Podcast

Welcome to the BBC's Global News Podcast. on YouTube. Hello, I'm Janet Jalil and. today we're looking at whether the. biggest winner from the war in Iran. could be not Israel, not the US, but. Russia. Well, we're joined from Kyiv by. our diplomatic correspondent James. Landale. And James, analysts are. claiming that the oil price shock is. benefiting Russia. Well, yeah, that's clearly right. because, you know, Russia's economy is.

substantially dependent on its energy. sales and particularly the sale of of. crude oil. That has been heavily. restricted in recent years by two. things. One, by economic sanctions from. the international community following. Russia's full-scale invasion of this. country, but also because of the largely. depressed oil price and that meant. Russia was suffering economically. As. we've seen in recent days, the price of. oil has rocketed and as a result, Russia. is benefiting substantially. President.

Zelensky in a news conference said that. he reckoned that so far Russia was. benefiting about, you know, sort of 10. billion dollars already because of the. change in the oil price. So, clearly, you know, the Russians at the moment, you know, are making the most of it. because their financial public finances. were not in in a great state, but they. are clearly benefiting from these price. changes. So, James, what could this mean. for the war in Ukraine? Well, in. practical terms, it just means that. Russia can carry on for longer. It can.

buy more and build more drones. It can. buy and build more missiles. It can. continue to pay very large bonuses. trying to persuade young men from. distant parts of Russia to sign up. to its so-called meat grinder of an army. at the moment because it's losing, remember, roughly on average about a. thousand men and women a day in. casualties, both killed and and wounded. So, all of that money will go to help.

that at the moment because. Russia's financial problems have been so. severe. In recent months Russia's had to. sell off some of its gold reserves. It's. had to increase consumption taxes like. VAT and things like that. There'll be. much less pressure on Russia to do that. because it's making more. from its oil sales. So to a certain. extent it definitely eases pressure on. Russia and makes it less likely that. Russia feels under any pressure. whatsoever to end this conflict. Especially now that the US is loosening.

the sanctions that were imposed on. Russian oil and the diplomatic efforts. to try to end the war in Ukraine appear. to have been put on the back burner. The American decision to ease partially. some of the sanctions on Russia will be. another boost for Russia because not. only are they benefiting from the high. oil price. They can they can potentially. sell more of their oil. and that means that yes, while these. talks may or may not continue. We don't. know when they're going to restart. The. world's attention is very much on.

the Middle East and for obvious reasons. at the moment. But at the moment most. people most analysts look at those talks. and they believe that they're largely. performative. One diplomat I spoke to. the other day said, you know, it's it's. pure theater for an audience of one. namely Donald Trump. Both sides the. Russians and the Ukrainians carrying on. with the talks so that they do not incur. the wrath of the United States. As a result of the changing economic. circumstances and global distraction. I.

think that's even less likely that we're. going to end up to getting any kind of a. deal soon. And all very worrying for for. Europe. What can they do to to counter. this? President Zelensky is in Paris. today for talks with President Macron. Well, look at the moment that the. Europeans have refused to unlock frozen. Russian assets that are held in European. jurisdictions. The Europeans have failed. to agree on that. Uh they could make a. different decision and and give all of. that some of that money to.

Ukraine. Uh. the Europeans have also promised to. raise some of their own money. 90. billion euros. They've promised that to. the Ukrainians, but that's held up. because of a row with Hungary. So, the. Europeans could do that. The one sort of shaft of light for the. Ukrainians at the moment is this, which. is Ukraine is perhaps the world's. foremost developer and user of cheap air. defenses at the moment. And the world is. coming. knocking on Ukraine's door asking for.

help. The Gulf, Europeans, even the. United States saying, "Look, how do we. defend against these Iranian drones?". And that is something that Ukrainians. are using to get into that conversation. So, we you know, we can make some money. from this. We can make some more allies. in the Gulf, which has largely been. neutral in this war. But above all, keep. Ukraine part of the conversation. Keep. it relevant. And I think that's. something that I I think will be a. central part of the talks that President. Zelensky is having with his European. counterparts at the moment. And to that. end, Ukraine has dispatched experts to.

the Gulf states to to help them defend. themselves against the Iranian. counterattacks. Yeah, I mean these experts are not. actually, you know, doing any defending. themselves. These are people who know. about cheap interceptor drones. These are complex systemic weapons. They. have to be fitted into military. structures. You've got to have. data that's transferred between. different locations. You've got to have. radar. You've got to have anticipation. There's an awful lot of things that need. to be sorted before you get these drones. and you stick them on this up into the. sky and you try and destroy incoming.

Iranian attack drones. So, those are the. conversations that have been had at the. moment. But here in Kyiv, there's a real. balance to be struck. On the one hand, the Ukrainians want to sell all these. and make some money and as I say, win. some friends in the Gulf. But equally, the government here does not want to. leave itself open to the accusation that. it is s- selling the shop, giving so. many interceptors to the Gulf that it. leaves these skies vulnerable. I think. we need to differentiate between two. things here. Cheap interceptor drones.

that cost a, you know, a thousand. dollars plus, Ukraine can produce these. and is producing them row after row. They're stacking them high. They will be. able to substantially scale up. production and sell that to whoever. wants to buy it in the Middle East. The. difficulty are the much more expensive, bigger air defense missiles. Some of. these missiles, the Patriot missiles and. things like that, they cost upwards of. three, four million dollars. They are. hugely expensive. The world does not.

have enough. Hundreds of them have been. fired off in recent weeks um in the. Gulf, leaving a global scarcity that uh. Ukraine and others have not been. anticipating. And that is the fear that. Ukraine has that it now get finds itself. harder to get those Patriots cuz other. countries will say, "We haven't got. enough. We need to keep some for. ourselves." Uh they're not producing. enough cuz they cost a lot. They take a. huge amount of effort uh to produce. And. I think that's where the Ukrainian. concern is, which is why President. Zelenskyy is saying, "Look, we'll give.

you our interceptors, but in return we. want some more Patriots cuz those are. the missiles that they need to defend. these skies from the devastating Russian. missiles that come in and cause so much. wreckage and devastation. By starting this war in Iran, has the US. lost the moral high ground? Well, I imagine it's a a matter for. debate about whether or not the United. States is starting from a position of. being in the moral high ground. Um I. think what is significant here is that.

the argument that the international. community, by that I mean largely the. West, I Europe and the United States, has been that Russia in this country was. in the wrong because it had breached. international borders. It had. disrupted the territorial integrity of. Ukraine and challenged its sovereignty. by invading in a way that we haven't. seen since the Second World War. In. other words, this was not just a. decision that was bad for Western. security, it was against international. law and thus thus immoral. And so, the United States by launching.

an unprovoked attack on Iran. in in a way that many international. lawyers would say is wholly in breach of. international law, means that it's harder for the United. States to point the finger at Russia and. say, "Look what you've done in Ukraine. is wrong.". Um. so those arguments will ensue. My own. view, I think my own assessment would be. is that we're slightly beyond those. arguments 4 years into this.

war since the full-scale invasion that. actually people aren't debating first. principles anymore. They're now debating. how do they bring this conflict to an. end? How do you put more pressure on. Russia so that the Kremlin gets into a. position where it thinks that it cannot. further its aims through further. violence. Because at the moment. the the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin, believe. that they can continue to make gains by. continuing combat. And until that. changes, I think.

the situation is unlikely to change. And. finally, we've talked a lot about the. benefits for Russia, but doesn't. Moscow look weak in not coming to the. help of allies like like Iran or or. Venezuela before it? Well, yeah, this is the narrative that. says, "Look, slowly but surely Vladimir. Putin's allies are being. removed, displaced, going somewhere. else." President Assad is now hiding in. Moscow somewhere. Venezuela has had a. change of leadership because of the. American action there and now Iran.

But I think what that does is that kind. of. it it mischaracterizes the nature of the. relationship. Uh those were alliances of. convenience. They were temporary. partnerships rather than ideological. unions, if you like. And uh the argument. that many analysts, the Russia. specialists, will tell you is they say, "Look, actually in the Kremlin, they. didn't really worry about that." Yes, in foreign policy establishments, they. might worry about that. But in in all.

that matters for the Kremlin at the. moment is maintaining a good. relationship with the United States and. keeping pressure on the government here. in Kyiv. And that is its overwhelming. priority, and that is why Russia has not. really been intervening in this war. substantially. uh over Iran. It's been staying back, allowing the Americans to do what the. Americans want to do. To think about it, just a couple of days. ago Miami, key Trump officials were. meeting with key Putin officials. They. Those contacts stay on, and we're not. hearing a great deal from those. So, at.

the moment, Russia is just trying to. stay out of it and focused on its. priority, which is clearly. continuing its fight against this. country. James, thank you. That was our. diplomatic correspondent, James Landale, in Kyiv. And if you like this episode, please subscribe to us here on YouTube. If you'd like us to cover any other. stories, leave a comment below. And for. more international news, you can always. download our Global News podcast.