How big a threat is Iran's military now? | Global News Podcast

Welcome to the Global News podcast from. the BBC. I'm Pete Ross and today we're. asking how much of a threat is Iran's. military to the US and its allies in the. Middle East. To help answer that. question, I've two BBC colleagues with. me in the studio. Padam Ghobadi from BBC. Persian and Merlin Thomas from the BBC. Verify team. Merlin, you've been looking. into the damage Iran's military has done. to US bases and evidence suggests it's. more extensive than previously thought. >> Exactly that. We've seen throughout this. war lots and lots of images of US.

strikes around Iran targeting military. sites, nuclear sites, but what we've. seen less of or less pictures and videos. of are really Iranian strikes on US. bases and sites in the Gulf in the. Middle East. And so we focused on those. and what we've seen using verified. videos and satellite imagery is that. there could be a much more extensive. damage than previously thought and we. found that 20 US military sites across. eight countries in the Middle East have.

been damaged and it's worth saying the. US hasn't said much about this. So. finding this out has been really. interesting because we've seen really. targeted kind of strikes on hangars, fighter jets, warehouses. We found. things like bad systems that have been. damaged and those are basically just. things that intercept missiles and. drones. and they're really expensive to make. They can take around 1 billion dollars. to manufacture and and the. the amount of time it takes to make them.

as well, it's a long lead time and so. the fact that these have been damaged. experts say is really significant. >> Is this coming from sort of new tech? The kind of stuff we're seeing in. Ukraine with drones and things like. that? >> It's exactly that. Lots and lots of. drone attacks. and it's proving really effective. because you've got on the one hand. really expensive equipment that the US. has made and taken a long time to kind. of strategize and plan over versus lots. of these cheaply made drones and we've. seen that a lot as you say in Ukraine. We've seen that also used by the. Lebanese armed group Hezbollah in.

Lebanon as well against the Israeli. army. Um and we're seeing this more and. more, and experts have said that you. know, they've used a significant number. of these drones, but they've still got. plenty left in the tank. >> We hear from Washington repeatedly, you. only have to listen to Pete Hegseth, the. Defense Secretary, or Donald Trump. himself, um that essentially, as they. would say, US has won this war or is on. the verge of winning this war. What. would be the message from Tehran to. that? >> So, Iranians uh beg to differ on this. point because they are saying that they.

are the winner of this war. That's what. they're repeating on a daily basis. One. of the things that Israelis and. Americans did was to target the entrance. to missile underground facilities. Now, according to CNN, they've managed to, out of 60 uh 69 entrances, they've. managed to rebuild 50 50 of them. So, that shows and they've filled out the. craters, they managed to fix the roads. according to satellite imagery. So, it. shows that yes, maybe the United States.

and Israel had some tactical successes. in destroying, for example, Iranian. navy, Iranian, for example, they. destroyed some of Iranian missile. launchers. However, was that a strat- a. strategic success for the United States. and Israel? Because what happens after. the war? Before the war, this important. waterway, Strait of Hormuz, was open. Ships were traveling through it for, you. know, decades. Now, after the war, it. has been closed off, and that's one of. the sticking points in the negotiations. right now. So, it's not only about the.

nuclear Iranian nuclear program and. missile program, but also about opening. up the Strait of Hormuz that has not. been opened yet. >> Messaging is pretty significant in all. of this. And what you've been saying to. us today, the message from Washington, again, I've I've said it before, but. I'll say it again, that they're winning. the war. But what you've revealed today. is that Iran has had more success than. we originally thought, and that's going. to play into the negotiations as we go. forward, surely. >> Yeah, we found that there's been more. damage done than the US has publicly. acknowledged, and they have kind of said.

lots and lots of rhetoric, as you said, around this, saying that they have wiped. out Iran's nuclear capabilities, that. they've wiped out their navy, um and. lots of their military capabilities. And. they are trying their best to kind of. take a hold of the narrative, especially. because, for example, they have. put a lot of pressure on satellite image. providers to indefinitely restrict the. new images of Iran and the Middle East, and that's what we've seen. So, actually. pulling this all together has been. really difficult because we've had to um.

lean on European satellite image. providers and also older images from. Planet, the American um satellite image. provider themselves. Planet says that. they have justified the move saying that. they don't want bad actors to use their. images and help protect NATO-allied kind. of personnel and civilians. Um but an. analyst from the defense intelligence. company Myria actually said to us that. these kind of precise strikes that we've. seen, and that we've revealed using. these satellite images, um expose a. level of US vulnerability to Iranian.

drone and missile attacks that. contradict the White House narrative. >> If. Iran does have this capability, what does that do for the future of the. talks? >> So, it's really important to understand. that the Western deterrence used to be. this attacking Iran. So, attacking Iran. was this dynamically sword that was. hanging over Iran's head. That's why in. the previous rounds of fighting, Iranians were their response to US. attacks or killing Qassem Soleimani,

Iranian general, back in 2020. It was. really restrained. It was really. restrained. They just attacked one. airbase. It was reported that they. previously told the Americans through. back channels. So, but now that Iran has. realized they have they can manage to. survive a war with the most powerful. military in the world and the most. advanced army in the region. So, that. deterrence, Western deterrence, is not. working that much either. So, Iranians. when when when you look at their you. know, what they say the Iranian.

authorities are saying is that the. outcome of this war is that this Islamic. Republic has become much more confident. and they know that they can resist and. they can survive a war with the United. States of America. However, that can. backfire because Strait of Hormuz right. now closing that that can later on in. the, you know, in the future. create some coalition against against. Iran as we've seen that French French. and British authorities are trying to.

get involved to open the Strait of. Hormuz. If it goes on and on and on, we. don't know how this is going to pan out. in the future. >> How do you think that would go down with. with people in Iran? You know, if. there's. I mean, I guess the messages that. they're getting from from the regime is. that they're being successful and they. can fight this war as long as it needs. to go on. But now there's there's more. evidence here that they're doing better. than thought. >> So, there's a there's there we there. should be a distinction between Iranian. people and the Iranian establishment. Yes, Iranian establishment has managed. to get some gain some strategic.

successes. However, that's not what. Iranian people feel on a day-to-day. basis because when they go shopping, they don't think about a Strait of. Hormuz that yeah, we now have a, you. know, control over the Strait of Hormuz. or our missiles, for example, reach here. and there. They want to like everywhere. in the world like people in here are. concerned about their Yeah, how they're. concerned about their living costs. And. when I talked to people after the. internet was connected again after 88. days, almost 3 months, what many many. many Iranians told me is that their.

number one issue in Iran right now is. economy because they have really. difficulty to making the ends meet, buying basic necessities, let's say I don't know, meat, chicken, you know, dairy products and things like. that. But if I may add one thing about. the claims of success by the United. States, we have to assess it in this way that, like I said, the waterway was opened. before the war and now it's closed. The. other thing is the stockpile of over 400. kg of enriched uranium over 60%.

enriched. And according to IAEA, that is. enough, if further enriched, to make at. least 10 nuclear bombs. So, there is no. there there is no solution right now for. the that stockpile. Iran is has not. promised to give it to the United. States. Although US has made some. concessions a few days ago Donald Trump. said that at first he was saying that. you have to give it to us. A few days. ago he said that it can be destroyed. either in Iran or in the United States. or even in the third country by the. oversight of the IAEA. Iran has not even.

accepted that. And as the war is going. on in Hezbollah as well. So, you've got. other fronts of war that is taking place. as well. And at the same time one of the. most important issues is instability in. the region. This is like opening a Pandora's Box. UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, so many countries. have been attacked and they've suffered. tremendously economically. If there's a. ceasefire or a memorandum of. understanding, which is like one sheet, will that protect the Gulf countries.

from further Iranian aggression or not? >> Thank you Padam and Merlin for joining. us today. If you'd like to hear more. from the Global News Podcast, click the. link below. Thanks for watching.