Crisis in the Gulf: Could Iran's strikes reshape the region? | Global News Podcast

Welcome to the Global News podcast from. the BBC. I'm Ankit Desai. As the Gulf continues to face. retaliatory attacks from Iran, we look. at how the region is reacting and how it. could be reshaped from the conflict. With me to discuss this, I've got. Barbara Plett Usher, correspondent in. Doha. Tell us a bit about what's been. happening in Qatar and across the. region. Well, here in Qatar since. Saturday when the attacks the US Israeli. attacks against Iran started, we have. been hearing explosions.

periodically. Now, this is the Qataris. using their air defense systems to. intercept incoming missiles. And the. same thing has been happening around the. region. The Iranians have been firing. drones and missiles at their Arab. neighbors essentially. Hundreds of them. They had signaled that. they would do so because there are US. military bases in all of these country, bases or camps or sites of some kind. But as the conflict continued, that.

began to widen out a bit and some. civilian infrastructure has also been. hit. Hotels, airports have been hit, residential. buildings. The latest is that they have. there have been a couple of drone. attacks on energy infrastructure. So, the. major oil refinery in Saudi Arabia and. also the liquefied natural gas industry. here in Qatar. And so this is creating. an intensified. crisis in the Gulf. And Barbara, what. have you made of the collective reaction.

to what's been happening over the last. few days? I can imagine a lot of shock, a lot of confusion and and I guess. a lot of the countries, a lot of the. states worried that they stand to lose a. lot. Frankly, the Gulf countries had. warned President Trump, the Trump. administration that this could come. They said especially if there's a. there's an attack against Iran that. looks like regime change where the. members of the system feel that they are. being directly attacked. Iran could lash.

out. We could find ourselves in a. situation where it is not only targeting. US military bases, but in effect the. economic pillars of the region. So, this. is what has transpired. How are people. responding? The The officials, they're. angry. I would I was at a press. conference by the foreign ministry here, and the spokesperson said all the red. lines have been crossed. Our national. sovereignty uh is under attack, and it's. not just military sites, as I mentioned. He said, uh it's it's other things as.

well. So, they are angry. Um they have warned Iran uh collectively. that uh it should stop what they call. its treacherous attacks. Interestingly, the Gulf Cooperation Council, which is a. group that brings together the six. countries, met on Sunday um to discuss a. unified response. It was quite a strong. response, really. They uh they said that. they basically signaled readiness for. collective self-defense. um because of all the energy disruptions. and the and the security risks. They.

said that they could transform the Gulf. from a defensive shield into an active. theater of response, and that they were. um activating joint air defense. systems. So, they're very much messaging. that they um. they are not going to tolerate a. complete a constant and complete. disruption of their economy and their. security. When they might respond, and. if they do, is the open question. That. is being discussed. Uh all options are.

being discussed at the top levels, according to uh the officials here in. the press conference. Barbara, the. relationships between the countries are. interesting, complex, and I guess so key. and pivotal in all of this. Iran, all of. the six states share a waterway with the. country, and all of them probably share. a awareness for for many decades. And. and this is really being tested now to. the limit all all of their relationships. between each other but especially with. Iran. Yes, broadly speaking the conservative.

monarchies Arab monarchies of the Gulf. there's always been tensions between. them and the revolutionary Shia. system. in Iran and that has flared up in. different ways over many years and in. some countries. you had better relations than others. The Saudis for instance were in. essentially a proxy war with Iran in. Yemen for many years very very strong. tensions. The Emirates managed to. managed to be quite pragmatic as some of. the other countries involved. The.

Emirates have had a strong business with. Iran. They do have tensions as well but. they manage those diplomatically. I. think they have about a third of Iran's. trade comes through the United Arab. Emirates very big Iranian business. community there. You have Oman for. example. which has really placed itself as. somebody who can mediate between Iran. and the West as well as. mediating the talks on the nuclear file. since I was covering it back in 2015. when I was doing these covering the. State Department and again started again.

with the the latest round of talks. They. were held in Oman. So you do have these. different approaches to Iran within a a. wider framework of a general tension. between the the Arab Gulf monarchies and. the Shia. the Shia Islamic Republic. When it comes to Saudi Arabia Barbara, how do you think they are holding their. cards? I imagine very close to their. chest but they will play a crucial role. potentially in this as well if we see. more escalation in this region.

Yes, they're political and economic. heavyweights and they did have quite. tense relations with Iran for many. years. I think direct rivalry really. but in recent years they had been. improving those relations partly because. the the Gulf Arabs were moving a little. bit back from Israel especially over the. October war. but for other reasons as well. So that. had been a strategic move by the Saudis. They have. been targeted to some degree not as much.

as some of the other countries but I. mentioned the oil refinery that has been. hit now. The US Embassy was hit there. and the Saudis came up with a statement. in which they said this blatant Iranian. behavior especially given the knowledge. that we didn't allow our airspace or. territory to be used to target Iran will. push the region toward further. escalation. So that's an interesting. response. The the Saudis before this.

conflict started several times made very. public that they were not allowing their. the US to use its facilities to target. Iran. and I think again the crux is going to. be the economic impact of the Iranian. strikes if they go on for a long time if. things get much worse then there will be. pressure. on the country on the Gulf countries. including on Saudi Arabia. to respond. Bear in mind though that. there is a limited number of munitions. and weapons that the Iranians have. So. it's a possibility that you might see.

over the next days. the the missile strikes at least begin. to wane. You do have the drones which. are much cheaper and much easier to send. out. They don't create much damage but. they can create they can create. disruption. So that's the the other side. of what the Iranians are doing but I. wonder. and I think many people are wondering. whether the Gulf countries can wait this. out. until and if and until the Iranians. deplete their their weapon stock. Could.

there be a realignment and a real. resetting of this region now off the. back of what we've seen over the last. few days? That is certainly something that could. happen or is something that people are. watching to see. how things will shape out. What we. understand is that the strategy of the. Iranian regime, which they've been. planning since the. since the war in in June, the 12-day. war, since then they were thinking about. what to do if those strikes should come.

back if the Americans and the Israelis. would come back and have another go. And. their strategy was if it is going to be. regime change, then we will try to cause. as much chaos and economic disruption in. the region as possible, and that will. then result, they hoped, in raising the. stakes for the their Arab neighbors who. would then put a lot of pressure on the. US to to stop the strikes. So, in other. words, create a lot of pain, and then maybe this will be put enough.

pressure in different places to stop the. strikes. There is a risk that that. backfires, and I think that's what we're. looking at now. We're watching now to. see if that is the case, because. targeting the economy of the of the. region is is really existential, obviously, for these Arab states. The and they they there's a risk that. this could move them further into the US. orbit and perhaps make them decide that. they do have to stand against.

Iran, even if they all very very much. fear greater escalation. Their instinct. is de-escalation, but it's a question of. joining the war or seeing their economy. sort of crumble around them. I think. that's a strong way to put it, but you. know, the deterioration of what they've. seen what they've built. Would they then. make that calculation? That's harkening. back to the statement by the Gulf. Cooperation Council, which suggested. some sort of unified action. What. exactly that might involve? Perhaps they.

would allow the US to use their. facilities. to target Iran, and maybe coordinate. with them. They they had refused to let. the US attack Iran from the bases that. are that are on their territory sending. this message very clearly before the war. that this wasn't their war. They weren't. involved. They had tried to stop it. But if the Iranians are involving them, then there is a risk that they may. become involved and they may be do so on. the other side.

Barbara, thank you so much for your. time. Barbara Platt Usher there. reporting from Doha. Thanks very much. for watching. If you are interested in. world stories like this, do check out. our global news podcast. You can. download that from wherever you get your. podcasts from. Do like and subscribe to. our YouTube channel and do leave a. comment below if there are any stories. you like us to cover in the future. Thank you so much for your time.