Could the US-Israel war with Iran help China? | Global News Podcast

Welcome to the BBC's Global News podcast. on YouTube. I'm joined by our Beijing. correspondent Laura Bicker now. Laura, all eyes at the moment are on the Strait. of Hormuz and the blockade there. How. concerned is China by that? So, first of. all, China is not feeling the shock of. this war like many others may be doing. and that is why because China has been. stockpiling oil since around January. So, it does have enough oil considering. it's the biggest consumer of oil in the.

world. It imports more crude oil than. any other country. It you would think it would be worried. No, it has been stockpiling since. January. It has about 3 to 4 months of. stocks to go through. And currently, there are thought to be around 46. million barrels of Iranian oil sitting. in the South China Sea. So, you know, China will think, "Hang on a second when. it comes to energy security, which is. one of its biggest concerns. We can get. through things in the short term." Then,

there is the case when you look at how. many business ties China has right. across the Middle East and that is where. China will be concerned. China is trying. to export its way out of economic. trouble and the way it does this is. trade. So, it needs all of those. shipping lanes, all of those connections. to come through the Strait of Hormuz. And what we're seeing if we're watching. some ships, some Chinese label ships are. getting through. We're wondering how.

long that will last if indeed uh reports. of those ships getting through are true. But yes, at the moment, China will be. concerned, but it may also be thinking. of its own interests when it comes to. this conflict, whether or not it will. spread, whether or not it will affect. its global growth, and whether or not it. will affect its overall economy in the. long term. So, those are some of the. practical considerations for Beijing, but what about how this conflict is. being reported in general on state.

media? What do you see? Remember, this is Chinese state. propaganda. So, a lot of what you're. seeing is what the Chinese government. want people here in China to see. First. of all, there is the propaganda aimed at. the United States. They call United States in many cartoons. that are spread on Chinese social media. warmongers. They're saying, "Look, if. you are going to be a global stable. power, where are you going to look? Well, it's China." And I think that's.

something Beijing's really leaning into. at the moment and has been for the last. year when it comes to a contrast with. the United States. What they're trying. to do is a point presidency as this. stable, predictable, long-term leader. that countries can rely on. And that's. what we're seeing portrayed in Chinese. social media and across Chinese state. media as well. This time, China believes. it's on the rise. It believes that it. can offer an alternative. What you've.

seen since January is a parade of world. leaders coming to Beijing's door. From. Keir Starmer from the UK, Canada's Mark. Carney, you had the Finnish Prime. Minister, you had the South Korean. leader. All of these people coming to do. deals with China where you see a. presidency who is now looking like a. tower and a beacon of stability in. comparison to Washington. And that is. music to Beijing's ears. That is what. they've hoped for all along. What you. were saying there about the concern.

being about stability, that was very. much mirrored, wasn't it, by people that. you spoke to on the on the streets of. Beijing? What what did they tell you? So, we went out onto the the streets. We. had a a quick chat with people. It's. quite rare to hear Chinese voices, but. they were eager to speak to us because. China's economy is facing internally, domestically, several key challenges, you know, from high youth unemployment, the housing prices have kind of really. collapsed, and they're worried about. manufacturing. So, when it comes to.

these kind of challenges, Chinese people. are worried about their own interests. and their own kind of cost of living. And that's why they're worried about. this war spiraling out of control, and. that's why stability to them, as they. tell as they told us on the streets of. Beijing, that's what's so important to. them. What about diplomatically? There. are obviously opportunities here in a. time of conflict. How do you see the. power struggle between Washington and. Beijing being affected by what we're.

seeing at the moment? I think one of the. key things that we've always heard over. the years is this so-called axis of. upheaval, axis of evil, and whatever the. main kind of tabloids, particularly in. the West, like to portray the likes of. China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia. Four countries that have what we see. here as a vague alliance. The problem. for China is when it comes to its long. strategic partnership with Iran, it's. pretty vague. They don't have any kind.

of pact that would say that they need to. go to the defense of their allies, and. when it comes to the amount of money. that China has offered Iran, it's been. about $400 billion worth of kind of. infrastructure and other kinds of aid. that they were talking about pouring. into Iran, that didn't really. materialize in return for it for the oil. that they've received. So, I think when. it comes to Washington, there's always. been this view that Iran and China are. very close. The reality is that. alliance, if you want to call it that,

is mostly transactional from China's. point of view. When it comes to China. and the US and this great global. struggle, I think China will see a huge. opportunity here. First of all, with its. relationship with the United States, it's watching right now to see if Donald. Trump will indeed come to Beijing as. promised. That visit was supposed to be. at the end of March, beginning of April. We're now seeing that pushed forward, perhaps into, you know, um, May even. And that for the Chinese. perspective, you know, it might be a.

little bit of a disappointment, but it. will see more time for them to. strategize, to perhaps get one over on. the United States. Remember, there was a. trade war for the last 12 year 12. months, and now you've got into this. kind of trade truce. So, they aren't. eager to do a deal. Perhaps China will. feel it's got the upper hand. So, if. you're looking at this global power. struggle right now, Beijing's perhaps. looking over at Washington and. wondering, is the United States going to. get itself embroiled in the Middle East? And if so, can we capitalize on that?

One other aspect uh that I think is. quite fascinating about this is what. lessons Beijing will learn militarily. about Washington's military strength and. what could possibly happen in the future. over Taiwan. This is one of the interesting aspects. that actually I hadn't really thought of. until I started speaking to to many. analysts who look at this kind of thing. And they say, "Well, look, um, what this conflict will tell China is. it's not a superpower in the same league.

as the United States when it comes to. this kind of weaponry. Uh and it's not a. superpower in this league in kind of. Beijing's capacity to intervene in any. of these conflicts. Not that Beijing. wants to. This is not in Beijing's plan. China The Chinese government has has. really said all along that it has a. policy of non-interference. But when it. comes to Taiwan, if it's looking over at. a United States that is using a lot of. its weaponry, a lot of its resources in. the Middle East, it might be stuck there.

for some time. Beijing perhaps may see. an opportunity, according to some. analysts, to say, "Well, let's see if we. can do a few more drills around Taiwan. Can we put pressure on Taiwan?" Is the. United States going to continue its arms. deal with Taiwan? These are questions that China will be. weighing up at this moment. However, when it comes to a kind of timeline, and. I'm always asked about this, it's like, well, does this make. a kind of invasion of Taiwan or a.

blockade of Taiwan more likely by China? I think China has its own timeline, whatever the United States is doing, whatever is happening in the world. They. see Taiwan as an internal issue, not one. for the outside world to worry about, as. they would say, and to concern. themselves with. And when it comes to. their timeline, whether they have their. own timeline, and I think President Xi. once told President Trump, allegedly, that there was no timeline for Taiwan.

Whatever plan they have, it will be in. the long term, and it will be on their. own terms, and it may not be impacted by. what Washington is doing. Laura, just a. wrap up, if we can, looking back now the. conflict in Iran, right this moment. Is. it the case, do you think, that the. longer this goes on, there are more. benefits for Beijing than there are are. are problems? No, I would think that in terms of. perhaps geopolitical benefits, they are. there for for Beijing, but I think.

Beijing's main concern is always its. economy, because that's what drives. growth within, that's what allows its. people, its 1.4 billion people to have. faith party, and it knows President Xi. knows that ultimately his ability to. govern, whether or not the party will. continue to have faith in them, the. people will continue to have faith in. them, all of that depends on the. economy. And right now, China's economy. is slowing for the first time in. decades. The last thing it needs is a. protracted struggle in the Middle East.

that could affect its exports, and also. its other relationships. I think in the. long term China will want this a wrapped. up. They've already called for a. ceasefire, but ultimately Beijing is. watching from the sidelines. Ultimately, even though it will use this to kind of. hang over the United States and. particularly look perhaps more powerful. and more stable, it will believe in the. end that the best thing for them is a.

stable world and a stable economy. And. it will not want this to go on for a. long time. Laura, thanks very much. indeed. The BBC's Laura Bicker in. Beijing. And if you want to hear more. from the BBC Global News Podcast, click. the link below. Thanks for joining us.