Could Iran strikes hurt US-Gulf alliances? | Global News Podcast

Welcome to the global news podcast from. the BBC. I'm Janet Jalil and I'm joined. from Jerusalem by our correspondent. Barbara Plett Usher. And Barbara, the. renewed violence between the US and Iran. has seen Gulf countries again come under. attack from Iranian drones and missiles. What's the reaction been in the region? >> Well, I mean, it's put the Gulf states. back on the front line, hasn't it? And. there had been a flare-up of violence. before after the ceasefire deal was. signed, but this one has been much more.

extensive and much more damaging. You've. had on the US side more than 170 targets. in Iran. And from the Iranian side, they have. fired missiles and drones at what they. said were US targets in Bahrain and. Kuwait and Qatar, even Jordan, which is. not usually in the line of fire. Now, almost all of those were intercepted, but still this is really quite alarming. and frustrating for Iran's neighbors. because first of all, it raises the. specter of a return to war. And these.

countries are their their economies are. still struggling to recover from the war. itself. You know, the the hit on the oil. and gas industry, the tourism, the international travel, all of that is still struggling to. recover. And the other thing is this is. upending efforts to try to open the. Strait of Hormuz, which is very. essential for the oil and gas industry. exports as well. Now, this all started. with Iran targeting a number of ships in. the Strait of Hormuz, including some. from the Gulf, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

That prompted a very angry call from the. Qatari Prime Minister to the Iranian. Foreign Minister, but he also had phone. calls with other regional leaders urging. a return to diplomacy because they. really are very desperate to contain. this. >> So, this has exposed just how vulnerable. the Gulf states are to Iran. Iran says. it's attacking them because they host US. bases. Do you think there's a chance. that some Some these states at least. could be reconsidering their. relationship with the US and perhaps.

asking US troops to leave. >> Well, I think they might consider. expanding their security alliances. So, for example, during the war, they really. talked up the support they were getting. from European and British militaries. But, frankly, to be realistic, they have. invested a lot into the US security. umbrella, and there isn't really an. equal alternative anywhere. So, China, for example, is their biggest economic. partner, but it doesn't offer the same. kind of military alternative, neither. does Russia. And also,

the the way they were attacked by Iran. Iran wasn't just hitting US military. infrastructure. The Gulf states said it. was also hitting civilian infrastructure. and residential areas. And so, it to. some degree, at least during the war, that was helping them to close ranks. with the US. Now, having said that, the. MOU, the the Iran-US ceasefire deal, doesn't address one of their main. concerns, which is Iran's ballistic. missile program. Because the Gulf. states, and also Israel, have been at. the receiving end of these missiles, and.

they really wanted this to be part of. negotiations to end the war, but it's. not mentioned at all. And that is. something that the Gulf states really. see as an omission. And also, you've had. now two escalations, this one quite. severe, and that that sort of increases. their worst fear, which is maybe there. won't be able to be an ultimate. resolution between the US and Iran. Maybe it will continue in this sort of. vein of stop and start violence. And so, that would mean that the region would.

remain volatile. >> And let's say this stop and start. violence does continue, what is the. likely impact on the oil and gas exports. of the Gulf states? >> Well, it's really going to be. detrimental to that. So, what's happened. is the memorandum of understanding. between the Iran and the US says that. Iran will allow the passage of vessels. through the Strait of Hormuz, but the. main route is not usable because of. mines. And the Iranians have committed. to removing those mines, but in the. meantime, they have said you've got to.

use this route next to our coastline. Now, across the strait is Oman, and it. has also opened a route together with. the International Maritime Organization, an alternate route, and the US has been. providing air cover for that. And the. Iranians say, "Well, that alternate. route hasn't been approved by us, and. therefore they have been hitting ships. that have been taking that Omani route, including the Saudis. and the Qataris. And so now what's. happened is that the IMO, the. International Maritime Organization, is.

advising that people should stop using. this strait, that the that the ships. should stop going through the strait at. this point. This is the main export. route for gas and oil from Saudi Arabia. and Qatar in particular. Qatar doesn't. really have another route to export its. liquefied natural gas. So, this is an. economic. existential economic issue for them. I. think what probably will happen is that. this will accelerate efforts which have. already been underway to diversify, that.

is to create new routes overland from. the Gulf to the Mediterranean via. pipelines, via railway links, and so on. That has already begun, especially. encouraged by the war because, you know, an Iranian blockade of the Hormuz Strait. was always sort of seen as this doomsday. scenario that would never happen. Well, it's happened. And now that that sort of. Hormuz genie has has come out of the. bottle, it can't be put back in. You. know, there there will always be the.

risk of a closure. And so I think what. you'll see is an acceleration of. attempts to create other ways to export. gas and oil because really this is. absolutely crucial for the the Gulf. economies. >> Weren't the Gulf countries supposed to. be involved in sorting out the. administration of the Strait. >> Yes, they were. Um what the MOU said is. that Iran should meet with Oman and uh. other countries that are along the. coastline and they should come up with. um a protocol for the administration of.

the Strait of Hormuz in line with. international law and in line with the. rights of coastal states. Uh and in. fact, that had already started. The. Qatari Prime Minister visited Oman last. month to try and get those negotiations. underway. And at the time, diplomats. said the main issue was um. uh uh the question about the transit. fee. So, there's never been a fee for. ships crossing through the the Strait of. Hormuz, but there were many indications. that Iran was planning to try and put. one in place. And so, the Gulf uh.

countries were going to push against. some kind of transit fee. And it was. thought that the Iranians would come up. with a sort of variant, like you need to. pay a fee for environment environmental. reasons or for security reasons or. whatnot, but that has all been put on. hold now. uh because it's not clear if the US and. Iran will return to negotiations. And uh. without that, you're not going to have. these regional sort of separate streams. continue. >> So, it seems that the chances of a.

regional diplomatic solution are. dimming. >> I think that's uh a good way to put it. uh at this point anyway, given what. we've seen in the past week. Now, there. were reports that the Saudis were going. to organize um a regional summit, sort. of like a reconciliation summit to try. and mend ties between the Gulf states. and Iran. And you know, um there's a. history of tense ties between Iran and. the Gulf states. Some Gulf states more. than others, but you know, for example, Saudi Arabia and Iran had started this. rapprochement before the war. Now,

that's obviously been put on hold, and. you can say that there's a lot more to. mend now than there was before, but uh. that isn't going to happen unless. there's a cessation of hostilities. And. so really this again, this regional. stream is dependent on the relations. between the US and Iran and it's not. clear if the US and Iran agreement will. lead to a cessation of hostilities. What. this escalation has really exposed again. is how intractable the issue of the.

Strait of Hormuz is. The Iranians are. determined to keep control of it because. it's an a really valuable card for them. to be able to disrupt the global economy. when they when they want to. The. Americans are determined to try and stop. them or at least respond to them when. they strike ships but at the same time. President Trump really needs the Strait. of Hormuz open in order to bring oil. prices down. So. it's it's believed that neither side. wants a return to war but at the same. time given the sort of volatile. relationship and conditions it's not. clear that ultimately over time they.

will be able to prevent one or be or. even be willing to prevent one. >> Barbara, thank you. That was our. correspondent Barbara Plett Usher in. Jerusalem. And if you want to hear more. from the Global News podcast, please. click on the link below.