Could China cutting CO2 be good news for the planet? | Global News Podcast

Welcome to the Global News podcast on. YouTube, where we go behind the. headlines. Hello, I'm Oliver Conway, and. today we're looking at some possible. good news for the planet. Greenhouse gas. emissions in China, the world's largest. poller, have fallen slightly. Our. climate editor, Justin Rolat, is here. And Justin, how important could this be? Well, looking at the figures, you'd say. not very important because how much of. the first year ever China emissions have. actually gone fallen back? They've.

fallen back by 0.3%. Now, that really. really doesn't sound much, but what. we're seeing it is against a background. of level or falling emissions for almost. two years now, for 21 months. Uh, in. fact, they sort of peaked in in kind of. spring of 2024 and then have fallen back. a bit more significantly since then. So. what people are saying is and look it's. couched around with uh with uh with with. caveats but there's we it appears we. might be seeing the beginning of.

certainly peaking of emissions in China. and possibly even the beginning of a. decline in emissions in China. Set that. in context. China is far and away the. world's biggest emitter of greenhouse. gases notably carbon dioxide the biggest. uh greenhouse gas. I mean overwhelmingly. a third of all emissions come from. China. So what happens in China. literally in this case could change the. weather for the rest of the world. >> Yeah. You mentioned caveats. There is a. margin of error on some of this. But. take us through which sectors have.

contributed to it. >> So what we're seeing is a fall in. emissions in transport, power, cement. So huge sectors of the Chinese economy. Balanced against that we're seeing an. increase in emissions from the chemical. industry. But overall the net is a. slight decrease. So that gives you a. sense I think of how finely balanced. this is. You know uh most sectors in. sort of slow decline one sector. increasing quite significantly. So you. know if one of those other sectors. change direction if for example there.

was a bit of a building boom in China. started using a lot more cement because. use of cement has fallen back you might. see emissions push upwards again. So. we're not saying you know definitively. China's reached the peak and it's going. to decline. We're saying this looks like. an interesting moment in the Chinese. economy. It looks like an interesting. moment for world emissions kind of. Let's see what happens. >> Yeah, because it has a goal of reaching. peak emissions by 2030. I was going to. ask you if this progress could be. reversed. You suggest yes, but is China.

broadly on track, >> broadly on track in terms of peaking in. terms of carbon efficiency, how how much. carbon dioxide is emitted per unit of. production. It's actually way behind its. ambitions and is struggling to meet the. targets set in its 14th 5-year plan. and. then um we're expecting it to struggle. to meet the 15th 5-year plan having. missed the 14th 5-year plan. So, it's. behind on one measure, but in terms of. total emissions, we're seeing this. leveling potential peak, maybe even the. beginning of a fall. >> So, going in the right direction, what.

is behind. >> Beginning to maybe go in the right. direction. >> Okay, beginning to maybe go in the right. direction. What is behind China's push. towards clean energy? >> China a long time ago, 20 years ago or. so, recognized a few things. One of. which was that climate change was a. really serious threat for China. That. China's very water insecure, very big. shortage of water. Climate change was. going to affect his agriculture, you. know, everything in China. It was. vulnerable to climate change. They. needed to do something about that. China. wanted to pioneer new industries and it.

saw an opportunity in this kind of nent. this this emerging um clean technology. industry. So for example, solar power. China sent out graduates to to places. that were ex in the in the developed. world that were pioneering solar power. and then brought the technology, brought. their knowledge back and set up in the. early 2000s new new companies to to. build solar panels. China has an amazing. expertise at efficient manufacturing and. it brought that to bear on this.

challenge of producing clean technology. and has delivered unbelievable results. And I say that without reservation. because the cost of solar panels, the. cost of batteries, the cost of electric. vehicles has fallen far quicker than. anyone predicted. I mean far quicker. than anyone predicted. And that is a. result of this huge investment in China. So they saw a market opportunity not. just for China, but they thought look. look at climate change is going to mean. that other countries are going to need. to respond to this challenge. They. thought actually this is a good export. industry. And crucially I mean if you.

look back in history all of the big. technological developments happened in. the west predominantly in America and. then were dominated in terms of. industrialization by America. And China. was looking for ways that it could find. its own areas of expertise and found it. in clean tech. And it it depends to go. back to your question on frankly a. couple of decades of investment and. really hard work. And what does this. slight fall that we've seen, what does. it mean for global warming and where are.

we at with world temperatures? >> You just got to look at the graphs of. emissions. So I mean America was the. biggest emitter until 2006 and since. then so now America produces 12 13% of. global carbon dioxide emissions. China. is now about 32 33%. So it's almost three times the emissions. of America. That has happened. America's. emissions have leveled off and fallen. back a bit since then, but that's. happened since 2006. So in 20 years,

China's, you know, massively increased. its emissions. So 80% of new carbon. dioxide emissions come from China. So. what happens in China? If China stops. increasing emissions, that is a. turnaround for the whole world. And then. you've got to remember that the new. technology we've talked about, all this. clean tech and cheap new solar panels. and all that kind of stuff, China, it's. an export industry for China. China's. selling that around the world. So it's. not just China that's beginning to see. this change in the structure of the. electricity market, energy markets more. generally. It's happening all over Asia,

Africa, you know, South America, countries all over the world are buying. this technology and changing the way. that they generate power. So we're. seeing the beginnings. We've got to be. careful about this. You know, only 20%. of energy used is electricity. So this. is a fraction of total energy but. nevertheless it's a really potentially. the beginning of a really significant. change in which the way the world uses. energy. >> Now you talked about all that investment. from China. China pitching itself as the. leader in the global transition to to.

clean energy in stark contrast to the. US. >> So interesting as China these figures. don't come from China. These come from. outside analysts who are looking at it. We need to see them confirmed by uh. Chinese institutions. But as we see this. what looks like a tipping point for. Chinese emissions, we see the the. Americans Trump saying he wants to lift. federal restrictions on carbon dioxide. emissions. He says we don't have to. worry about the emissions from tailpipes. from cars and trucks. We don't have to.

and this in the future. I mean the hope. is his hope would be that we wouldn't. have to worry about the emissions from. power stations. He's saying let's use. American coal, use American oil to. generate power and not worry about the. emissions. So he's lifting this. endangerment finding. It's called a. technical term. It's a endangerment. because the Environmental Protection. Agency judged based on scientific. evidence for which there's a huge. consensus around the world that the. effects of climate change would have a. material effect on the health of.

American citizens. So they said. therefore, you know, we should have the. power to regulate these emissions. He's. saying we're lifting that. You don't. have that power anymore. That's not. going to happen in America. So America. going on a very different direction and. lots of energy analysts are literally. asking as we speak is how [snorts] much. difference will Trump try to deregulate. emissions control in America. How much. difference will actually make if. actually the cheapest energy in the. world is is solar power. Something. really interesting just looking. elsewhere in the world go to Saudi. Arabia is one of the biggest investors. in solar power. Obviously also one of.

the biggest after America uh exporters. of oil. But what are why are they. investing in solar power if they've got. these massive reserves of oil and gas? Well, they're doing it because actually. the cheapest electricity in the world, particularly if you live in a in a. desert, is from solar power. They're. saying, "Well, let's put the solar power. and we'll get our energy from there.". And I'm not they're not saying we're not. going to sell you oil and gas. They're. saying we can make much more money. selling oil and gas to the rest of the. world than we can using it to drive. power stations in Saudi Arabia. So,

you're seeing the change even in places. where you really wouldn't expect it. And. in conclusion, looking at this small. drop again, does this tiny drop, >> tiny drop, does it represent real. change? >> Look, people have been forecasting for a. long time that China was reaching a. peak. And actually, if you go back and. look at the picture of American. emissions, American emissions peaked. back in 2007. So, they're falling back. Most developed countries are seeing. emissions fall back. So, we see this. trend as economies mature. They tend to. reduce emissions. They're doing much. less heavy manufacturing, much less.

building. So, you do see this pattern. So people have been saying for a long. time China's going to pee, but what's. interesting about China is it's still. doing that huge manufacturing, still. seeing this surge in demand for. electricity and energy, and that seems. to be being met by clean power. So yeah, like let's wait and see, but it does. look like an interesting moment for the. world. >> Justin, thank you. Justin Roats, the BBC. climate editor. If you like this. episode, please subscribe here on. YouTube. If there's anything you'd like. us to cover, leave a comment below. And.

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