Can US-Iran strikes be avoided? | BBC News

Welcome to the Global News podcast on. YouTube where we go behind the headlines. of a story and tell you why it really. matters. Hello, I'm Ankur De Santos and. today we are breaking down the US and. Iran talks which have been taking place. in Oman. They've concluded for the day. and they were indirect with officials. from both sides being represented. The. key question, can military action be. averted? Now to dive into this one, I've. got our diplomatic correspondent. Caroline Hawley with me. Uh Caroline, key question then, what would have been. at the top of the agenda today?

Well, we know what's on the top of the. US agenda and that is not the mass. killing of protesters last month which. is when Donald Trump said that help was. on its way. But now the focus has been. on Iran's nuclear program and the White. House has said zero nuclear capability. That is what it wanted and wants and. that is foremost in its mind. That is. also what Iran has wanted to discuss. only the nuclear program, not the host.

of other concerns that the US has which. are. the range of its ballistic weapons and. also its support for militant groups. around the Middle East. But I'm not sure. that any of this was on the agenda. today. As far as we know and this is. what the Omanis have said who are. mediating that. they are just setting the stage if you. want. These are preparations being made. for what they call technical and. diplomatic negotiations. But the two.

sides did not actually meet each other. directly. So we know that the Iranian. Foreign Minister met with the Omani. Foreign Minister who then met with the. Middle East Envoy, the US Middle East. Envoy Steve Whitkoff and we think Jared. Kushner as well, Donald Trump's son-in-law. The Omani Foreign Minister then met with. the Iranian Foreign Minister again and. shortly after that the talks seem to. have ended with. an agreement to. talk again but we don't yet know the. format. We don't know exactly when, and.

I think I think what's clear is this is. what Iran would have wanted. It wants to. kind of string these along, buy some. time. And they managed to get the talks. to be in Oman rather than Turkey, which. was initially. the location they were going to have the. chat. >> and this still actually surprises me to. some extent because um. regional uh. countries, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, uh. Qatar, Oman, and Egypt have all been.

involved in trying to calm things down. because they don't want a confrontation. that could lead to a war. Um so, our understanding was originally. the idea was that they were to the talks. would take place in Turkey, but Iran didn't want that. Iran didn't. want that because it didn't want to be. negotiating. with the region. as well as the Americans. So, it was. more comfortable with this format that. we've seen in Oman, but what I'm a bit. surprised by is. why everyone agreed to that. Because.

everyone says, and the US has said it. itself, the regime is at its weakest. It's never been weaker since it came to. power in 1979 in that revolution. So, but anyway, they In a In a sense, they. won. They got um they got the talks in. Oman. Uh we know very little about what. happened. What we do know, though, from. um. some Iranians inside. Iran is that they are upset, and they. think that just the the mere fact of the.

talks taking place, and a red carpet. being rolled out in in the Omani capital. Muscat, talks in a palace, that gives. legitimacy to a regime that murdered uh. so many of its own people in January. We. still don't know the exact number. I. think it's. um the most reliable uh organization. that's been counting the the of dead has. almost 7,000. protesters killed, but there are. thousands of other deaths under review, but it is an awful lot of people, and. and there is concern.

uh within Iran that these talks have. been taking place at all given what. happened. How is this some kind of. reward. >> Yeah, and and that's what's going to be. difficult to digest for so many people. And and and then I wanted to ask you. then who holds the cards? But what. you're saying today is. Iran have had a had a positive day in. their eyes, but then from the US point. of view, what what would they want? >> I think the Iranian regime will. definitely want to kind of string this. out for as long as possible. Um I think.

their the main preoccupation for the. Iranian regime at the moment is its own. survival. It is. terribly weakened. Um so. a mass against it from the outside is. what Donald Trump has called that. massive armada uh in the Middle East. >> shadow looms large still, doesn't it? Exactly, and that will be certainly. concentrating minds, but. still we're seeing quite sort of defiant. language from the Iranian regime, and. they've said if hit, they will hit back,

and that's why regional countries are so. concerned. And I think for the Americans, what are. they thinking? They have so many. concerns about Iran, but. in a way there there are no very easy. options. Of course, there could be a. military strike, but in to to rid uh. the the world to rid Iran of the current. regime, you'll probably need to do much. more than strike from the air. So. Yeah. >> difficult choices for the Americans, and. for the moment, they seem to be talking.

they they seem to be very keen to pursue. this diplomatic track. Um but the White. House has said um that Donald Trump has. many uh options other than diplomacy, so. that threat is hanging over everything. that happens next. That's before we even talk about the the. ballistics program which the US wanted. Iran to de-escalate as well. And also a big question of Israel as. well and the role that they play in this. and and I guess the distrust from both.

sides when it comes to Israel what sort. of a. a role they play in this geopolitical. situation. Well, it was interesting because the. Middle East Envoy Steve Witcoff went to. speak to Israeli officials earlier in. the week. Um. Israel has always wanted the end of. Iran's nuclear program. And of course. there was the the war last June when. Israel attacked Iranian military.

facilities and ballistic missiles. programs. as well as nuclear facilities and then. the US joined those those attacks and. particularly on the three key nuclear. sites that are central to Iran's nuclear. program. So so. that's what Israel would like most but I. think everyone in the Middle East is is. thinking how. how how do you reach that outcome? How. do you make sure that Iran doesn't try. surreptitiously to continue a nuclear. program? And I think that what some of.

the regional negotiators were talking. about was. um. limiting the nuclear program so Iran at. least for some time doesn't enrich any. more uranium. Um but then maybe it does at a lower. level at some later point. But then. there's also the stock of highly. enriched uranium that it has and no one. knows exactly where that is and whether. that could go to a a third country. These are all things that will be talked. about but down the road. And we don't. know when the next round of negotiations.

will be at the moment. And it's too much. to call them negotiations. We've just. seen these separate talks between the. Omani Foreign Minister and the two. sides. Let's finish off then with a possible. look into your crystal ball. With with. all your knowledge and understanding of. of this region, what could be the possible outcomes when. we look into the future? People talk about regime change. Very difficult. People talk about a. forced compromise or a controlled war.

At the heart of all of this, the Iranian. people and what they want and and and. and how we can possibly understand what. they're going through and and and what. they essentially need. when all these talks are finished. I think what the vast majority of. Iranians, of course there are no public. opinion polls taking place there, what. they want is an end to the regime and. that is why we saw that nationwide. uprising. It was really protests were in. every corner of the country. And um.

large numbers of people, whole families. going out into the streets, uh in some. cases attacking hated symbols of the. regime including mosques. That's the. level of kind of hatred there is of the. regime among so many Iranians. But also. what you saw is the Iranian regime being. able to put down those protests with. brutal force in every corner of the. country. There weren't the defections. that you would. uh need to see large-scale defections to. actually uh. deliver a final blow.

uh to the regime. So it's very hard to. see what happens next. Um and of course the um American. military strikes are still very much. uh on the agenda. Um so we wait to see. how Iran kind of responds in the. negotiations. At the moment um you've. got both sides I think going back to. their respective capitals uh to decide. on the next steps. Caroline, thank you. so much for your time. Really appreciate. it. Caroline Hawley, our diplomatic. correspondent, we'll be sure to revisit.

this subject again with Caroline when we. know about the next set of talks to take. place. Now, if you do enjoy world. stories like this one, I do check out. our global news podcast. You can. download that from wherever you get your. podcast from, and do like and subscribe. to this video. And if you want to let us. know if there any other stories that you. want us to cover, get in touch with us. below and leave a comment. Thanks so. much for your time. I'll do another version cuz that was a. bit mumble jumble at the end. Caroline, thank you so much for your. time. Really appreciate that. Caroline.

Hawley, our diplomatic correspondent, we'll be sure to revisit this subject. again when we know more about the next. round of talks. Thanks so much for. watching today. If you do enjoy world. stories like this, check out our global. news podcast. You can download that from. wherever you get your podcast from. Do. like and subscribe to this video, too, and drop us a comment below if there's. anything else you'd like us to cover. For now, thank you so much for your. company.