Can Trump end the war 'very soon'? | BBC News

Welcome to the Global News podcast on. YouTube. Hello, I'm Janet Jadelle and. today we're looking at President Trump's. suggestion that the US-Israeli war with. Iran is almost complete and could end. very soon. Well, we're joined by our. State Department correspondent Tom. Bateman. And Tom, since this war started. we've had so many conflicting messages. from the Trump administration. What do. you make of these latest comments from. the US President that the conflict could. be over soon? >> Well, I mean my sense is that I think. the administration was quite spooked by.

what was going on in global markets. Of. course, the price of oil. going up over $100 a barrel at one. point, you know, out of the weekend into. Monday morning. It it has since dropped. since then of course, but I think that. was enough. to get these comments from President. Trump which felt to me very much like. starting to look towards the off-ramp or. the way out of what the administration. will see as a declaration of victory. But we didn't really then get a repeated.

that so explicitly from the Defense. Secretary Pete Hegseth when he then held. a news briefing on Tuesday morning at. the Pentagon which I was in and he was. asked a few times really about what what. he had previously said about when this. would end. and he said that although they had. endless will, this wouldn't be an endless war like. Iraq, like a quagmire he said of the. past. So suggesting they're still on a. kind of timeline of weeks, but certainly felt a bit different to.

from what Mr. Trump was saying which I. think led some people to believe, you. know, that that this was sort of a days. away from being over. >> But it's not just up to President Trump. to decide when this war ends. Iranian. military officials have said they'll. decide when it's over. >> We have heard repeatedly now President. Trump and Pete Hegseth, the Defense. Secretary, try to frame this as the. Americans will decide, will set the. course of the timing and about when this. ends. Well, you know, the problem with.

that is wars uh can unleash unintended. consequences and there are two sides. fighting that that can each keep um. fighting. And what you're seeing from. the Iranians now, I think, is two. things. First is. uh tactically what they're doing, which. is to try and um unleash instability in. in economic global markets. You know, we're not seeing movement in the Strait. of Hormuz. So, that is a form of. economic warfare that I think the. administration, as I say, has already. been spooked by. Um and that plays into. then the control or not that the.

administration has over this. Um but the. other point, I think, is what we're. hearing rhetorically from the Iranians. is no way. You know, they're saying. uh you don't get to decide the timing. You unleashed this. Um the IRGC and. Iranian diplomats are saying now they're. determined not to be locked into a cycle. controlled by the Americans where um. they go down a diplomatic track, then. use force to uh impose their will and. then call for a ceasefire. And what. you're hearing explicitly from the. Iranians now is they're going to they.

want to break that cycle. Um and that they will determine and set. the course for for that to create. deterrence for to stop the Americans. doing this again. So, um. for an administration that has. repeatedly said it is you know, tried to. suggest it is completely in control of. events and timing, uh I think we might. see that President Trump isn't quite in. control of things in the way he likes to. think. >> And it's especially become clearer in. the past few days that the aims of the. US and Israel are diverging as well. So,

that's another complicating factor. whether Israel would stop if even if the. US did. >> Pete Hegseth was asked about this. actually at the news briefing about a. sense among some Americans who felt that. the Israelis were dragging the Americans. in further into um. escalation um on this. I mean P Hexter. didn't address that directly, but he did. say that times the Israelis will have. different objectives from the Americans.

So, I think there was some. acknowledgement of that, but he said. that ultimately it'd be the Americans. that would define the outcomes and also. what happens after the war. But clearly. there is distance and clearly there is a. you know there were there are. differentials here. Benjamin Netanyahu has always believed. that diplomacy should not be pursued at. all with the Iranians. He's tried to. persuade every single American. administration not to do that. He tried. to stop Barack Obama going into the 2015. nuclear deal.

And then according to some accounts was. instrumental in persuading. President Trump to pull out of it in his. first term. And I think the objective. you know an objective for the Israelis. is the more you can weaken the Iranian. regime to the point of destruction, implosion, overthrow, the better. There's clearly an outright regime. change objective there. For the. Americans it's a much more complicated. picture. We've heard the president. flip-flop on what the American. objectives are, whether or not this is. regime change.

But clearly President Trump wants a sort. of pliable leadership in Iran, but he. doesn't care if that is a continuation. of the current regime. I'm not sure that. in the long term the Israelis would be. in quite the same place with the Israeli. leadership. So, there are very clear. differences here. But in the end. you know I think it becomes much harder. if the Israelis to continue if the. Americans try to stop. So, I think. that's likely to be the defining point. >> And what about Lebanon because Israel's. in there right now and it seems that.

Israel is intent on destroying the. Iranian backed group Hezbollah? >> You know the complexities in Lebanon are. such that I think you know the Americans. had tried for a bit to try. to get the state as far as they could on. board with sidelining Hezbollah. It's a. very difficult thing to do. It's a. complex thing to do in the sectarian. makeup of. Lebanon. Um and hasn't been clearly as successful. as they would have the Trump. administration would have wanted over. these um past months. But you're seeing now, you know, what.

have been a over a year of war between. Israel and Hezbollah after the October. 7th attacks uh and the war in Gaza. reignited. And I think it starts to put pressure on. this whole idea that, you know, President Trump had very much touted um. in his view reaching the ceasefire in. Gaza, the release of the hostages. there. And you know, the more that the. region itself um. the conflict enlarges and has this you. know, we're still in a spiral of.

escalation, although the administration. denies that. They're saying it's. contained. And clearly, I think the more. it starts to threaten what President. Trump sees as his work of peace in the. region, again, that becomes another. pressure on him to sort of start putting. the brakes on. >> And Tom, even if the war ends soon, what's the lasting impact for Gulf. nations and their relations with both. the US and Iran? >> You know, the Gulf nations had always. said, particularly led by Saudi Arabia, uh that they favored diplomacy when it.

came to the threat of Iran in the. region. Um and I think they felt that they could. contain the threat. But as President. Trump launched this huge military. buildup, sending two aircraft carriers. to the region, multiple warships, there. is a sense that Mohammed bin Salman, the. Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, um had. decided it had to be sort of all or. nothing. And certainly some of the. reporting in the in the US media. suggests that he was then pushing for um. you know, overwhelming force. If the.

Americans were going to go to war, it. had to be decisive. It couldn't be a. half measure because that would then. empower and embolden the Iranians if the. Americans sort of quickly started. looking for an off-ramp. And I think, to. be honest, we're still in the middle of. that. That hasn't become clear which. path President Trump's going to go down. So it this is extremely dangerous for. the for the Gulf. nations. If they lose the sense of. economic security that drew middle-class. Europeans there for the economic.

opportunities there and sort of lower. manual class laborers from Asia drawing. all those people in building these huge. economies. If that gets threatened by. the sense that these places are not. secure, that is existentially. problematic for Gulf Arab countries. >> Thank you, Tom. That was Tom Bateman, our State Department correspondent. And. if you like this episode, please. subscribe to us here at YouTube. If. there are any other stories you'd like. us to cover, leave a comment below. And. for more international news, you can.

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