OpenAI Misses Targets, Codex vs Claude, Elon vs Sam Trial, Big Hyperscaler Beats, Peptide Craze

Jason, do you want to tell us about your. new favorite podcast? Oh, it's so good. My feed is now because, you know, since. cancel culture ended, Sachs, everybody. uses the R word and the f word right. now. My entire feed on Instagram is. either gay or down syndrome or bulldogs. It's one of those three. And then I. stumbled upon the Miss Thing pod, Miss Thing. And they do a bit called gay. name, straight name. Here's gay name or.

straight name for David. This good news. and bad news freeird. Here we go. >> Gay name or straight name? >> David. >> David to me is straight. >> Okay. But he has my perfect body. It can. be confusing because I'm kind of like, are you gay? And it's like, no, I just. want to be you, David. >> Totally. Well, it's so like the. Michelangelo's David the male ideal. It's like incredible body kind of small. Sorry. >> Yeah. >> Oh,

>> it's a little rough. [laughter]. >> What? >> What are you watching there, Jal? >> They basically nailed these two, but. okay, keep going. >> I don't think Chimoth is on their short. list, but I know Jason will come up at. some point. >> Gay name or straight. >> Maybe this is it. >> Chimoth. on the count of three. Yeah. >> Three, two, one. gay. [laughter]. I'm seeing like Italian sweater, like. really kind of like a loud [laughter]. vibrant sweater. He like wears it to. like poker night with his like his boys.

and like not I'm not talking like. straight poker. I'm talking like gay. poker nights like at the bar. >> Yeah. Always talking about wine. >> Talks about wines. >> Always sort of like. Yeah, exactly. >> Yep. Also, it's so like the guy at the. gym taking off his shirt, taking. selfies. >> Yeah. And everyone else is kind of like, "Excuse me, Chimoth. I'd like to use the. mirror. [laughter]. I'd like to see myself. >> See you at the next day." Poker night.

>> Totally. >> You bring the wine. [laughter]. >> We'll bring the sweater. >> Yeah, >> there it is. Wow. They did do. >> That is fantastic. That is fantastic. A. shout out to my guys at the Miss Ding. podcast. >> Wow, that was awesome. I think I'm gay. >> [laughter]. >> I never knew. [music]. >> Let your winners ride. >> And it said we open [music] sourced it. to the fans and they've just gone crazy. with it.

>> What did you do like cameo? Did you pay. them to do that? >> Did it for me as a favor. So they did it. for. >> That's awesome. Well, thanks to those. guys to the miss. I've seen those guys. before in clips. I find them very funny. [laughter]. >> It's so great. Shout out to my guys. >> That was awesome. >> All right, everybody. Seriously, welcome. back to the number one podcast in the. world. It's the All-In podcast with me. again, David Freebergia, David Saxs, and.

of course, I'm Jason Calcanis. You can. call me Jay Cal if you're here for the. first time. Topic one, open AI. They. missed their targets for chat GPT. Freedberg both on users and revenue. Let's talk about it. The Wall Street. Journal says in a uh a breaking. investigative report on Tuesday that. OpenAI expected to hit 1 billion wows. weekly active users before the end of. 2025. They missed that and they still. haven't hit the milestone 4 months into.

2026. Also, Chamath, they missed their. 2025 revenue target for Chad GPT. Exact. number wasn't specified, but as we've. talked about here, they're at a 2030. billion run rate. There's a little bit. of accounting nuance that is yet to be. worked out in the industry. Two reasons. why this matters. Sachs, OpenAI has $600. billion in spending commitments for. compute. Just to put that in. perspective, that's about what they're. trading for on secondary markets. In.

other words, the entire value of the. Open AI enterprise equals their spend. commitments in the coming year. CFO. Sarah Frier, who is coming to liquidity, is reportedly worried, hey, that revenue. isn't growing fast enough to keep up. with expense and OpenAI wants to IPO. later this year. This has put Frier and. Oughtman in conflict or uh maybe there's. some natural tension there. Frier. doesn't think OpenAI is ready for public. reporting standards. According to the. Wall Street Journal, Altman obviously.

wants to move faster, so they released a. joint statement. this is ridiculous yada. yada yada. Let's go to you Saxs. What do. you think's going on here? Are these. major headwinds or is this just managing. expectations as the leader of the pack. in the most important race of our. lifetimes, the race towards super. intelligence? >> Well, I actually have a little bit of a. contrarian take on this. I know that. OpenAI had a really bad week. Like you. said, they had that Wall Street Journal. article which said that they missed. their numbers. They missed their 1.

billion user growth target. They missed. their revenue numbers. That's called. into question whether they can afford. the data center commitments that they've. made. And then in addition to that, they've also had the lawsuit with with. Elon happening this week. So in the. press, it ended up being I think a. pretty bad week for them. But I have a. contrarian take on this, which is I. think that over the past week or two, if. you look at kind of what's happening at. the product level, it's been a pretty. good couple of weeks for them. They. released chat GBT 5.5 and the reviews. from, you know, people I talked to in.

Silicon Valley have been really strong. You talk to developers, coders, they're. very happy with it. At the same time, Opus 4.7, which is the latest anthropic. release, appears to be a bust. People. are complaining about it. They're in a. lot of cases are rolling back to 4.6. They're saying that Opus 4.7 is. rationing compute. It's reducing. thinking time, not as good. there were. some bugs and clawed. So if you just. compare chat GPT 5.5 to Opus 4.7, it.

does appear that OpenAI has had a better. couple of weeks on a product level. And. I think there's reason to believe that. the product improvements will continue. GPT 5.5 is based on a new base model. called Spud, which is the first base. model upgrade they've done in I don't. know over a year. and having a new base. model will pave the way for future. improvements as well. So I think OpenAI. is feeling pretty optimistic about their. product right now and I think you're. starting to see on X some of the. developer mojo is shifting. I'm seeing a.

lot of people saying that they are. shifting their their coding usage from. Opus to GPT 5.5. So I think that SAM may end up being. right but for the wrong reason. And what. I mean by that is that when he made. these big compute commitments, it was. based on those estimates of hitting the. billion users on the consumer side and. hitting those revenue targets. The. consumer business ended up being weak.

So they missed those targets. But in the. meantime, coding has become the. allimportant sector of AI. And because. they made all these compute commitments. and they built out these data centers, they have more compute than anthropic. right now. Anthropic is token. constrained. It's reducing their ability. to serve mythos, for example. It's. causing them to engage in compute gating. with Opus 4.7. And I understand why. Daario made that decision. I'm not. saying I mean it was a prudent business. decision. I'm not criticizing him for.

it, but I think again I think Sam may. end up being right here for the wrong. reason, which is he missed on consumer, but enterprise is going gang busters and. is giving him the ability now, I think, to catch up on code. your poly market. >> which is the all important market right. now. >> of course and we talked about gro and. cursor teaming up last week Elon and the. team over there poly market showing now. a 32% chance that openai goes public by. the end of 2026 this is down from 60% in. December and Shimath you gave a bit of a.

warning hey there's only so many dollars. to go around SpaceX IPO is obviously. getting out first and now if openai. doesn't go out this year and anthropic. does the sets up an interesting dynamic. What are your thoughts here generally. speaking about the massive commitment. that OpenAI has made? Are they going to. run off the cliff or will it wind up. being brilliant? Uh even if it wasn't. strategically for the exact reasons, >> I think they're going to be fine. I.

think this is a multi-t trillion dollar. company. I think Anthropic is a multi-. trillion dollar company. I think the. thing that's happening right now is uh a. complete misunderstanding. of what's actually happening. inside of the world of AI. And there is. one very specific choke point. that is constraining everything which is. access to the power that's necessary to. drive these tokens. To the extent that. open AI missed, I think what that is is. an insight to not enough compute.

capacity today. And that problem is only. getting worse. You've already seen that. with Anthropic as well where they just. found a way to economically induce. Amazon to give them enough capacity so. that you don't have to route through. bedrock to get to the anthropic models. You're also seeing them do. differentiated deals now with economic. participation on top of what they. already had from folks like Google to. give them more capacity. What is my. point? Everything in this market is.

power constrained. The reason that these. folks may miss a number or a forecast. have nothing to do with demand. It is. entirely 100% due to the supply of the. power necessary to generate the output. token. There is a really interesting. thing that was just announced today that. will make this problem even worse, which. is what you're starting to see now is. backlogs build up of not just the access. to the power, but then the componentry.

that's actually necessary. Not just. resips and not just NAT gas turbines, but now you're talking about. transformers and all the actual tactical. grid infrastructure. Why is this important? If you look at. the actual amount of gigawatts that are. under construction, we have a huge. mismatch now, people have announced all these. projects, Jason, but less than half of it is actually. being built. Less than half. Most of it. is stuck in red tape.

Most of that is because there are these. supply chain delays. So there's no. credible strategy to turn any of this. stuff on. Who will this hurt? It will. hurt Anthropic and OpenAI the most. Who. will this benefit? It will benefit the. hyperscalers, specifically Oracle, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Google. And. now what you're going to see is a. negotiation and a trade back and forth. How much equity do I have to give up?

How much control do I have to give up to. get access to the compute versus how. badly will I miss my growth forecasts if. I don't? And now what that means is, and. we spoke about this last week, that's a. huge lane for Grock to just run through. and SpaceX to run through cuz they have. a ton of excess capacity. And so I think. the cursor deal was the appetizer. But. if I were Elon now, I'd be running all. over this market because if the models. catch up in quality, I think he could. also do something really crazy with.

anthropic or open AI right now. Maybe. not open AI because of the. >> we'll get into the lawsuit in a bit. >> the baggage. >> Yeah. >> But man, he and Dario should do a deal. tomorrow. >> So you're framing, hey, the the limited. resource here is compute. The demand is. off the charts. >> No, the limiting resource is power. power which then powers compute which. then provides tokens which then services. the massive uh developer and co-work and. all these other projects that consumers.

and enterprises can't get enough of. Got. it. >> And Jason, the other factor that. complicates that for anthropic and open. AI is all the stuff that's sort of. sitting around thumb twiddling. 40% of. that is going to get cancelled because. they've done such a poor job of creating. a good positive halo around AI that 40%. of all the announced projects get. cancelled because 40% of all projects in. the last four years have been cancelled. Yeah. And there's there there are some.

bad feelings about data centers, AI, jobs, etc. And that's causing some. headwind. People are you literally doing. violent things in society and blaming. data centers and AI for it. I don't want. to give it too much air time. Freeberg, what's your take on the chessboard we're. looking at here? Either through compute, energy or through going public on a. business level, you know, the strategic. nature of capital, compute and energy. now playing a role in this massive.

amount of demand. still a ball in the. air kind of game. BCG had this theory, I. think I talked about this once before, called the rule of three where they've. shown time and again that any stable, mature, competitive market evolves to a. 4:21. ratio of market share for basically 90%. of the market. So there's a market. leader that has four times the market. share of the second place, that's two. times the market share of the third. place. This is the case in pretty much.

every mature kind of competitive market. So you can kind of think about AI. probably evolving into a consumer market. and an enterprise market. Open AAI, even. if they're not at a billion, they're. still at 900 million weekly users, which. is well ahead of whatever Claude is at. I think Claude is like probably subund. million sacks, you may know. And then. Gemini is probably closer to them at 700. to a billion somewhere in that range. Probably pretty neck and neck with open. AI. So, you know, the consumer market. looks like it's trending towards a chat.

GPT/Google. fight for first place and second place. and then probably anthropic in third. place and maybe Elon emerges and takes. off enabled by his compute capacity and. then the enterprise market is a little. bit of a different story and that's its. own market which is kind of anthropic or. probably Google in the lead actually if. you look at all the vertex use. Google. claims that 75% of GCP customers are. active users of Vertex. So there's. probably a pretty sizable.

market share that Google's captured on. the enterprise side as well. This is. also probably why Google stock has. absolutely ripped over the last couple. of months is they're literally in first. place or fighting for first place in. enterprise and consumer. But I still think that there's a lot of. opportunity to Chimoff's point about the. compute and energy capacity constraints. in improving how we actually scale and. deploy models in both the enterprise and. the consumer setting. And it is such. early days and I just want to highlight. this paper that came out from MIT from.

these two scientists and these guys. published a paper on pruning techniques. and neural networks. This paper showed. that you could actually reduce the size. of these networks by 90%. And get the same accuracy out by pruning. very large models down to smaller. models. And then you can make a. selection on which model to run for. inference. And by doing this, you can. actually reduce inference costs by 10x. You can get 10x the output per energy. unit that goes into the data center with.

no loss of accuracy. And so it's a. really interesting call it algorithmic. technique that can be applied to the. existing large models to actually make. them much lower energy use. So if you. think about it, you're firing up a very. large model to answer a very simple. question. You can actually prune away. that model. Now this is probably going. to be the case in AI applications as it. is in traditional Google search. There's. a long tale of searches, but there's a. few searches that account for a large.

percentage of search volume. It's like. what is the weather? What are the movies. times? You know, what's the stock price? Like there's a certain set of things. that make up the bulk of consumer. energy. And there's probably a certain. set of things that probably make up the. bulk of coding output as well. And so if. you can get that 80% of searches or chat. interfaces or coding requests reduced. down through pruning techniques to. smaller models and then you have a whole. set of smaller models that can be called. dynamically and you reduce inference. cost by 90%. you can make much more use,

call it 10 times the use on data center. and energy capacity than we can today. So I would argue that we're still in the. very early days of getting efficiency in. terms of output and tokens and we're. just in the very kind of early stage of. that which also unlocks the opportunity. for guys like Elon to reinvent how this. is done and potentially compete pretty. aggressively. >> There are two ways to win. You could. throw compute at it or you can do SLM's. small language models and V SLM's. verticaliz small language model. So if.

you had a verticalized small language. model for the weather, let's say that. doesn't exist, but uh you can you can. use it as an example. They will have one. for travel as an example. When you hit. Google for flight information, it's. obviously going to route you to. something lighter and faster that uses. Google flights. And Google flights has. been incor incorporated into Gemini. Gemini now is right behind 700 750. million users. >> and it's exactly what we discussed I. don't know 18 months ago on this podcast. Freeberg that what if they put it at the.

top. >> and what would that do to their search. revenue search revenue is surging and. they're also surging so they figured out. a way to balance those two competing. forces having search results that are AI. enabled and still getting people to. click on links they've done it. brilliantly apparently and the stock is. rewarding. >> I'll just add one statement to what you. said, which is like you're using what I. would call a humanistic on. humans don't intuitively know what this.

model is. It's not just a verticalized. model, but there are going to be models. that will be discovered through. automated pruning techniques that will. then be working in concert. So, lots of. small models that link together. And we. don't define each model by some human. heristic like this is a search travel. model. >> This is a maps model. We don't we don't. know why these models work the way they. do when they get broken down. But I do. think that that's really where the. evolution is happening. So effectively a. model becomes a macro model. It's got. lots of smaller models underneath it.

that can be dynamically called and that. allows you to have 10x the inference for. the same unit of energy. >> Sax, >> let me just build on your point about. Google. Jcal, I would say that if. there's a single reason why OpenAI did. not hit its user targets and its revenue. targets, certainly around consumer, you'd have to say it's because Google. managed to take meaningful share, you. know, they were basically nowhere a year. or so ago. Sergey came out of.

retirement, helped focus the company, and like you said, they did a brilliant. job improving Gemini and putting it at. the top of search, incorporating it. Now, that being said, again, I don't. think the news is all bad for OpenAI. because I do think that the 5.5 release. was great. We're hearing really good. things about Codeex. I do think that. Codeex is taking share in coding tokens. right now. And I just think we're in a. really interesting place where these. companies are constantly oneuping each. other. I mean, two weeks ago it looked.

like Anthropic was going to be. completely dominant, right? I mean, Anthropic was growing at 10x. Open AAI. was growing at 3x and it looked like. >> and then the servers started going down. Did you see that this week? The server. going down. People were in my office. were complaining we can't get on claud. >> Listen, competition brings out the best. in everyone. Anthropic forced open AI to. compete. Google's forced open AI to. compete in consumer. I just hope the. market stays competitive for as long as. possible. I do think that's what's best. for consumers, our economy, and for our.

country overall. Let me just say one. other area where I think OpenAI had a. good week is in this red-hot area of. cyber. Obviously, Anthropic made a huge. splash with Mythos. It hasn't been. commercially released. Their compute. constraint, but as a proof of concept or. training model, it hit a new level of. capabilities with cyber. But now OpenAI. has released a new model called GPT 5.5. cyber which has just been through a. bunch of tests and they've shown this. was testing done by the AI security.

institute that GPT 5.5 is the second. model to complete one of their. multi-step cyber attack simulations end. to end. So it has the same level of. capability as Mythos and it does appear. to be commercially. ready. You know, they've got the compute. to serve it. So I do think that that's a. big accomplishment. I mean, look, we. knew that other cyber models were. coming. It wasn't just going to be. Mythos. In fact, within 6 months or so, all the Frontier models are going to.

have Mythos level cyber capability. But. it's impressive that OpenAI got this GPT. 5.5 cyber out. so quickly and I think. 5.5 might be the first cyber model that. cyber defenders actually get to use. because again I don't think they're as. compute constrained as anthropic is. >> and this is an incredible opportunity. you know for the crowd strikes and. PaloAlto networks of the world both of. which have been on the program they come. out and they start attacking this space.

man you could really. see everything get tightened up and this. could be an incredible revenue stream. for everybody who's got whether it's. cursor claude or open eye or Gemini. This is an amazing opportunity to. tighten up as much as it is to get. attacked. >> Can I make a point about that? Cuz look, there is so much fear right now almost. the level of panic about mythos. People. are treating it like a doomsday weapon. or something like that. It's not. is. simply that the frontier models have.

reached the point where they're capable. of automating cyber activities just like. they're capable of automating coding. But that means that a model could power. up a cyber attacker or cyber defender. the same way they can power up a coder. and allow them to discover a lot more. vulnerabilities. So there is obviously a. risk there. But I think it's important. to understand that Mythos or GPT 5.5, it. doesn't create the vulnerabilities. It. just discovers them. The bugs were.

already in the code. They were sitting. there waiting for some hacker to. discover. If we can now use AI to find. these bugs in advance, these. vulnerabilities and patch them, then you. actually harden our infrastructure and. and you harden our security. I also. believe that this leap from let's call. it preAI cyber to post AAI cyber it's. going to be I think a big one-time. upgrade cycle because again you're going. to find all these dormant bugs and. vulnerabilities but I think that once we.

get past that upgrade cycle you're going. to reach a new equilibrium between AI. powered cyber offense and AI powered. cyber defense it's going to become a lot. more normal it's not going to feel like. this huge disruption which is to say I. think you know people are treating this. as like some existential threat. I don't. think it is as long as everyone does. what they're supposed to do, which is. use the new capabilities to harden their. code bases and infrastructure and. security before the hackers get a hold. of these capabilities. >> Yeah. And if Chimath, if you were to. look at this to build on Sax's point,

there are about 5 million or so security. experts in the world. We talked about. token cost. 40 hours of tokens just. pounding it, you know, a week. You could. create another five million for a. hundred dollars per chief security. officer per security expert. So it's the. volume of security expert agent saxs to. your point. Yeah. You could have 50 50. million of them 100 million of them. They're not finding something unique. They're just they never sleep. They're.

relentless in their pursuit of these. problems. It's a really great point. >> Just kind of just refine that. So yeah, there's probably 5 million people in the. cyber industry, but there's probably. only a few thousand really elite. hackers. >> Sure, >> those hackers didn't have the time to go. after the entire surface area of every. possible attack vector out there. And so. if you train a model to do what they do, obviously, like you said, it can operate. with a scale and speed that a human. hacker can't. So obviously, you know, what you need to do is get these tools.

in the hands of the white hats, let them. do the cyber attacks themselves to then. find the vulnerabilities and patch them. before the black hats get a hold of. these capabilities. But I think it's. just just one last point on this, I'll. stop. It's just it's really important to. understand that the Chinese models are. going to have these capabilities within. approximately 6 months. >> Oh, they have them now in Deep Seek 4. for sure. They've got some level. Well, no. Deepc4, I mean, Dec 4 is impressive. in a lot of ways, but its capability is. not at the frontier. It's maybe 80 80.

85%. Let's call it the American. frontier. >> Chimoff, you wanted to get in on this. Let's get Chim in. >> Two things. The reason that this is even. possible is because humans are. errorprone and when humans code, they. create holes. And so, humans exploiting. humans is where we've been for a long. time. Now we have computers exploiting. humans because the computers go and seek. out all these bugs that humans wrote. In the next phase it'll be machines. versus machines. And so I think the nature of cyber is.

going to completely change. Probably in. the next five or six years there'll be. so much reason to rewrite all of the. software that runs the world. In one part because you're going to be. asked to show more operating leverage. and revenue growth, but in another part. because everything else that was. handmade in the past is just. fundamentally insecure. Either way, all. roads will lead to all the operational. software that runs the world will get. rewritten. More and more of it will be. written by machines. More and more of it.

will be impregnable as a result. But. then the cyber threat actually will only. increase because then you're going to. try to figure out how to use a machine. to inject something into another machine. so that some agentic loop inject some. malware or injects a bad token. And I. think that's a very complicated thing. What I will tell you is. I'm not even sure if I'm allowed to say. this, but. a very good probably the best cyber. security company in the world run by one. of the very best CEOs in the world who. may or may not be speaking at liquidity.

[laughter]. would tell you that they have penetrated. and can essentially. manipulate every model. Let me just let. me just say it roughly that way. >> Okay, perfect. Yeah. And I uh at the. breakthrough prize uh which three of the. four of us were at I talked to George. Kurtz the other person you were kind of. describing was not that. >> sitting beside Nash. Yeah I'm talking. about. >> Nash and George are the two guys leading. this Palo Alto Networks Crowd Strike and. they understand the what George told me.

was there is just a line out the door of. people who want this product or service. And if you look at it, Freeberg, like. the murder rate, like we're sitting here. with the lowest murder rate in the. history of humanity. It has gone down. massively in our lifetimes, but. massively over the arc of history. I. think that's what's going to happen with. cyber. There is only so many attack. vectors, and the remaining attack. vectors are just going to be human. factors, right, Freeberg? That's always. been the case. And as we make the. software more resilient, then the the.

weak link is, you know, the secretary. who puts her post-it note, you know, with the password there or the. accountant who, you know, uses their. dog's name plus one, two, three for. their password, right? That's the the. historical one. Okay, let's any anything. you want to add, Free Bird, as we wrap. there? Oh, that's. >> Why is your bed so messy, by the way? Why can't you just ask the room service. to come in? >> Listen, I'll tell I can tell you what. happened. Listen, I'm here in Atlanta. And also, why don't you have a suite. like where there's two rooms? Like, is. it just one room? This hotel only has. one.

>> It's just one room. [laughter] Yes. >> You know, either you're cheap or poor. Which one is it? I'm cheap. Here's I'll. tell you what. [clears throat] Here's a. situation. I'm in Atlanta for the Knicks. game tonight. >> You're in one room. >> Here's what I do. I just want to explain. to you value for value. Some people. spend their money on private jets and. they spend $30,000 flying to Atlanta. I. spend 30,000 on courtside seats. I don't. want the suite. I want to put it into. the seat side. >> You can do both. I guess I could do. both, too. I don't I'm I'm in the. process of becoming. >> I don't understand. >> of embracing my richness. Okay.

>> If you've already convinced yourself. that you should spend $30,000 for. courtside tickets, which I think is. outrageous, but okay. You've already. convinced yourself like 10k each, but. yeah. Yeah. >> A hotel room that has two rooms. Okay. >> Probably cost 15% more than what you're. paying. >> It's 2x, but yes, you're right. >> I'll get the I'll get the hotel room. 20. or 20% more, but you room like 200 bucks. a night. So you pay 400 a night. You get. another hotel. >> I mean it's it's Atlanta. The most I'm. in the best hotel the most expensive. hotel is 500 a night in Atlanta. It's no.

big deal. But everything's sold out. because all the Knicks people are coming. here. >> So you're selling me double that would. have been a thousand and you couldn't. spend,000. >> Everything is sold out because the. Knicks are here. >> So we have to look at your dirty beds. >> It's gross. >> The bed's not that dirty. Come on. Just. deal with it. Okay. Take it out and. post. >> I have a private jet story about flying. to Atlanta. >> You reminded me. Okay. So yeah, there. was some event there. So I I flew my. team there, you know, there's a few. people on my plane and it's kind of a. long flight. Was it like 4 hours or. something.

>> from the back? Yeah. >> Yeah. So I went in the back to to sleep. Well, first, you know, we we started the. flight and I had a few bottles of Papy. Van Winkle on on the plane. And so we. started off with like a drink and then I. went in the back and and fell asleep and. I woke up basically when we landed. >> So I come out and like all three bottles. are basically cashed of like [laughter]. Happy Van Wink. >> Oops. Those were like two grand a. bottle. >> No, no, they're more. These were like. antique bottles. Like one of them was. >> I have one of those from your plane. I. have one of those from the old Falcon. Yeah. >> Yeah. They were like these vintage.

>> $4,000. I remember. Yeah. >> Anyway, you can't even find this. anymore. So these guys, they asked me. like when we land like, "Hey, Sax, how. much did it cost for you to fly us to. this event?" And I said, "Well, about. $8,000 in jet fuel and about $12,000 of. Happy [laughter] Van Winkle.". Well, you gota you got to fuel the the. vibes as well as the plane. It's uh. >> Is Atlanta nice? I've never really. >> Do those people still work for you or. are they are they uh [laughter].

>> they called in Atlanta? Um is Atlanta. nice? Listen, last year I went to the. Detroit games and that city was on the. rebound. Atlanta has an incredible. opportunity to rebound. I'll say it that. way. There's a great opportunity for. them to upgrade the city. I I went to. Waffle House at midnight last night. There was no shootings. Okay, let's keep. moving. By the way, do you get royalty. points at the Best Western Atlanta or. No, [laughter]. >> I get double points because I use my. Best Western uh Visa card. Yeah, it's. everywhere you want it to be. All right. Use the promo code Jcal and get a.

thousand extra points. In other Open AI. news, Musk versus Alman, the trial of. the century or maybe the decade has. started. Elon is of course accusing Open. AI of breach of charitable trust, unjust. enrichment. He's accusing Open AAI of. essentially flipping a nonprofit into a. for-profit. He's seeking 150 billion in. damages that they revert back to a. nonprofit that Alman and Brockman be. removed. And there were some fireworks.

between Elon and the Open AI lawyers. Elon kind of leveled up the discussion. He said, quote, "If we make it okay to. loot a charity, the entire foundation of. charitable giving in America will be. destroyed. That's my concern.". Obviously, there's a ton of interesting. nuances here. Specifically, Greg. Brockman keeping a diary where he was. journal maxing his plans uh like a Bond. villain here. And uh the excerpts from. his diary include conclusion, we truly.

want the BC Corp. The true answer is. that we want Elon out. If 3 months later. we're doing BCorp, then it was a lie. Can't see us turning this into a. forprofit without a nasty fight. I'm. just thinking about the office and we're. in the office and this story will. correctly be that we weren't honest with. him. In the end, it's still about. wanting a for-profit just without him. yada yada yada. Freeberg, your thoughts. on this case? Is Elon going to win? I. just don't know why Greg Brockman's got. a freaking diary where he's like.

literally documenting. I mean, I love. the guy, but what the is he. thinking? Like, you're just sitting here. at home and like, let me write about the. the crime I'm committing or let me write. like and let me record it. And by the. way, let me never delete it. I don't. understand this. >> It's not just journal maxing. It's. discovery maxing. [laughter]. >> It's smoking gun maxing. >> I don't get it. I don't get it, man. >> I mean, do you guys remember from the. wire in that scene where the guy's like,

"Is you taking notes on a criminal. conspiracy?" [laughter]. He's got everybody in the room. Can we. play that clip? It's like, >> "What are you doing, Greg? is you. taking notes on a criminal conspiracy? What the is you thinking, man? >> If you're going to commit a crime, you. do not write down the date and time of. the crime in your journal. >> Well, look, we don't know it's a crime. Let's not. >> Okay, sure. >> A crime, but yes, you keeping.

shenanigans. Jamat, do you keep a diary? >> What do you think, Juel? Do you keep a. diary? >> I I believe ruminate. [laughter] No, I'll tell you right now, rumination is. the path to unhappiness. Nobody gives a. about your feelings. Writing your. feelings down is only going to make you. miserable. Talking to your spouse about. your feelings. >> Just go to a beautiful dinner, sit. courtside at the next, and do what I've. been doing for 30 years. maxing. maxing. And the register goes up.

All you have to do is work. Start new. projects. Nine out of 10 foul. Place. nine out of 10 bets. One wins and you're. golden. Go sit courtside at the Knicks. game. >> Keep going. Life's too short. >> And just keep moving forward. Don't. write anything down. Period. Full stop. >> It's good advice. Yeah, I just The. biggest surprise to me was this guy's. got a diary. I just I don't know anyone. that has a diary. I've never heard of. this. So anyway, that was shocking. Besides that, I have no view on what's. going to happen with the case or what. the judge will do. >> I have no comment on the case either. I.

think it's weird that Poly Market hasn't. budged even as all of this discovery has. been published. It's effectively at 42. or 43% that Elon wins. So, one of the. friends in our group chat said what may. just happen is that Elon technically. wins and he's just credited back the $40. million. And so, maybe that's what this. poll is front running. But on a totally separate note, I think. Jason, I know you say it as a joke, but. this idea of just keep moving forward,

don't ruminate, I think is very good. general life advice for everybody to. follow. >> The modern-day therapy industrial. complex and the medication industrial. complex, I believe, is. >> around rumination. Well, it does pivot. around rumination. >> Yes. >> That is the gateway drug to all these. things. >> Yep. Talk about your problems. You know, when these people go to. therapy, you ever hear these people? Howard Stern's like, "I've been in. therapy with the same person 2 or three. days a week for 40 years." I'm like, "Okay, what's the incentive for the. therapist to stop charging you $1,200 an.

hour? There is none." Then they lose a. revenue stream. They lose a customer. It's all a giant fraud. Facts. Uh, in terms of this case, >> I wouldn't go that far. I do think that. there's a lot of value in kind of. untying some of these Gordian knots that. people have because of how they grew up. But there's a difference between that. and being specific and just randomly. ruminating cuz I don't think there's a. lot of productive. >> You've got an acute issue like in trauma. in your life. Yeah, sure. Unpack it, figure it out. I'm just talking about.

this neverending self-improvement, you know, ruminating thing. Uh but. getting back on topic here, Saxs, what's the And we're we're talking about. a jury, I believe, in Oakland. >> No, but it's a bench trial. This is. important. It's a bench trial where the. jury is advisory in capacity, >> but ultimately that judge, she will make. the final call. >> and she'll do the damages. And so, is. this a case sacks of like we've got a. Bay Area jury judge and we've got Elon.

who's considered, you know, a bit. right-wing and people don't all agree in. that area in terms of his politics. And. then you have this Sam Alman New Yorker. story and people finding out that so. many different people feel they got. screwed by him. You put these two things. together, it's impossible to handicap. where this turns out. Sachs, your. thoughts? >> Well, yeah, I don't think this is about. politics. I mean, I guess you could. argue that what Elon is seeking, which.

is to protect the charity, is if. anything a left-coded sort of principle, although I don't really think it's left. versus right. Look, I don't want to take. sides on this trial. I'm just watching. like everyone else. The last time I. weighed in on some Elon litigation, I. got deposed for six hours. Remember. that? Cuz they just assume that somehow. I know something, >> right? >> I've never talked to Elon about the. case. I don't know anything about it. >> Yeah. >> I'm going to see what happens like. everyone else. Now, one thing I I will. say having just read some of the.

coverage is that apparently the company. at some point did offer Elon shares in. the company, but he thought that there. was something kind of icky about it. Do. you remember this that. >> Yes. Because at at one point I said on. our show when this dispute started. happening but before it became a court. case I said look if Open AAI at a. certain point decided they had the wrong. structure they should just gone and done. a make right with Elon and he should. have been a shareholder on the cap.

table. What I didn't know is that. apparently they did try to do something. like that but Elon turned it down. because he did want the entity to remain. a charitable entity. In other. >> had a principled view of it according to. the reports and was like no we're trying. to save humanity and then you're giving. this keys to the kingdom to Microsoft. that's all come out. >> and I I also have not talked to Elon. about any of this but my guess is like.

most of these things there'll be some. sort of settlement or something here but. maybe he takes it to the mat who knows. Judge Rogers who's doing this. 61-year-old Obama appointee politics has. played a role. Saxs, they have had to. tell the jury like however you feel. about these individuals politically, whatever, please put that aside. But of. note is that she oversaw the Epic Games. versus Apple trial over App Store. exclusively ruled in favor of Apple with. some caveats um that they don't have a. monopoly, etc., etc. So, this is going.

to be a really interesting one. And I. think the worst case scenario is open AI. for for OpenAI is they have to unravel. this somehow and that would delay the. IPO. That would cause chaos in. shareholders and I guess the best case. is some sort of settlement. And if Elon. put the first 40 or $50 million in, he's. he's due 10 20 30% of the company after. dilution. All right, let's keep moving through the. docket. Lots more to discuss and uh good.

luck to everybody in their lawsuit and. those of you betting on market all-in. summit selling up fast. Our fifth. edition Los Angeles September 13th to. 15th. Go to allin.com/events. and uh speakers are going to be top. tier. Apparently Freeberg is having this. as his major creative outlet. I heard. some back channel chimoff today that. he's going to be doing Broadway musical. uh illusionist. tap. I got a tap dancing. situation. >> He's literally going fullon entertainer.

This is going to be vaudeville sachs. wrapped up. He's just going to take it. to a whole new level. Musical numbers. >> like Nathan Lane. >> I think if you're coding that it's going. to be his big gay summit. Yes, it could. be a big gay summit. >> Might be our last year in LA, guys. >> Why? >> Not might be. >> Might be. Oh, everybody wants to go to. Vegas apparently. Those bones, baby. Can you imagine.

leaving the summit for lunch and going. and playing crabs? Jimoth, we get a. fresh. Yes, I can. Yes, I can imagine. >> I got some bricks. Oh, I got some bricks. right here. Let's go. Yum, yum. >> That way Sachs can come. >> Yeah, [laughter] Sax is like, I'm never. setting foot in California, but I will. You know, we're doing a couple live. events. Are you coming to them? >> Liquidity or something different? >> Liquidity. And then there's the the. all-in summit happens in September. >> Yeah, I'm going to do those, too.

>> All right. Big tech smashed their. earnings on Thursday. Google, Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta all reported. I don't. know why they do this on the same night, folks, but they do. And performance was. spectacular. It was great. However, the. capex announcements were really the. story here. Let me just cue this up and. show the chart. $725 billion in capex guidance in 2026.

from but four companies. Amazon, Microsoft, Google, and Meta. Amazon. leading the pack with 200 billion, 190. billion each for Microsoft and Google, 145 billion for Meta. You add Grock, you. add OpenAI and some other players to. these plans. And we haven't heard from. the new Apple CEO yet, but he's going to. be taking over. And he's going to have. some plans here. I'm sure we are going. to see the large a trillion dollars a. trillion dollars in buildout over the. next year. I don't know if this is even. possible, but this is all being driven.

by AI and cloud computing. Google Cloud, which includes the Google Suite, that. grew 63% year-onear. Let that number sink in. 63% on 20. billion in revenue. That's in a quarter. Microsoft cloud, that includes Azure, Windows Server, SQL Server, they bundled. some things together there to get the. number to go up. Uh that grew 30% on. 34.7 billion in revenue. Amazon Web. Services, the original cloud, that grew.

28% on 37.6 billion in revenue. That's a. bit of a pure play. Just counts Amazon's. web services. Obviously, these are all. moving to NeoClouds. These are all. serving AI jobs and tokens now. They. have a massive customer base and the. customers from the smallest startups all. the way to the biggest frontier models. cannot get enough compute and it is. going to the bottom line. But this is. shrinking Chimath cash flow massively. These were free cash flow machines, the.

largest money printing machines in the. history of humanity. But they are giving. up on free cash flow, stock buybacks and. dividends and the focus on those three. to invest in infrastructure. Amazon's. free cash flow down 97%. Google, Microsoft and Meta down 12, 12. and 8% respectively. your thoughts on. this free cash flow, the end of the free. cash flow deluge and the massive massive. investment we're seeing in capex.

I think we're seeing a very important. structural shift in the capital markets. I think the last 20 or 30 years, well 20. years, it's been that the mag 7 just. kind of ran away with it. that these big. companies got bigger and bigger and it. absorbed all of these investment dollars. and the biggest reason was that it had. these very assetike business models, right? You just built some more software. and it just has all this leverage and it. all just kind of worked except maybe for.

Amazon cuz they needed physical. infrastructure for warehouses and. delivery and whatnot. But by and large. it was a very asset light investment. cycle. Now all of a sudden the pendulum. is swinging violently in the other. direction. And there's something that I. think people misunderstand which is as. it moves back to these asset heavy. infrastructure investments. The hyperscalers are signing checks that. I mean I suspect their body can cash but. there's a world in which they can't. I'll give you an example. You know when.

Microsoft convinced the owners of three. Mile Island to turn their. >> nuclear site back on? >> Yeah. >> Do you know what their Ford purchase. agreement was? It was for more than 2x. the prevailing spot rate for energy. More than 2x. The problem is that's not. for an enormous percentage of their. overall energy needs. So if you play that out and you think. these five or six companies all of a. sudden are not just spending Jason 700.

billion a year of capex which they are. but then from an operating cash flow. they're going to be spending 2x the. prevailing spot rate because they just. want guaranteed demand into the future. Where's all this cash going to go? It's. not going to go. to the shareholder and it's not going to. stay on the balance sheet. These. companies will now get levered. They're. going to get highly sophisticated around. the financial engineering. They'll have.

more debt. They'll have all kinds of. different vehicles and term loans and. revolvers and all of this stuff. And so, they're going to look like this. big bulky industrial business in five. years. And I'm not sure that there's a. good valuation case to be made at that. point. And so I think it may be simpler and. this is what I tweeted to just follow. the dollars like a trillion dollars a. year going out of the hyperscalers. Where is it going? Just follow those. dollars and buy those companies because.

those companies are already underpriced. This is uh obviously reminiscent of. something we all experienced. Uh Nick, can you pull up the Cisco chart I just. sent you and put it at max? uh we had a. massive buildout of the infrastructure. of the internet in the late 1990s and. into 2000. And what that caused was a. lot of aggressive companies to do. massive amounts of spending, a lot of. retail investors to embrace these stocks. like we're seeing with people trying to. get into these private companies and.

saxs. Look at the 2000 peak of Cisco. This is the most extraordinary chart. ever. It took them 25 years to get back. to that peak and uh they had a lost two. decades and we had a massive amount of. fiber that wound up getting bought. We. talked about that a couple years ago on. the program. But there's something for. you to build off of here when you look. at this massive infrastructure. You. think it's going to be Cisco systems all. over again, World Warcom, etc.? >> No, I really don't. The issue we had in. 2000 was dark fiber. You had all this.

infrastructure being built out and it. wasn't being used. There's no dark GPUs. today as you know Brad Gersonner likes. to say. So what's driving the capex now. is the voracious demand for compute for. tokens and the demand is now pulling. forward this additional um investment in. infrastructure. So I think what's. happened here is that the bull thesis. for AI just got validated in a single.

afternoon. I mean again you got. Microsoft Azure, Google Cloud, Amazon. AWS, Meta, they're all basically. exceeding expectations, exceeding. guidance in terms of where their cloud. revenue would be and therefore how much. they're going to reinvest in capex this. year. I think we were supposed to have. 660 billion of hyperscaler capex up from. 350 last year. I think there's now the. new estimate is it's going to be over. 700. So this is you know again it's more. than 2% of GDP. This is a huge tailwind.

to GDP. There's another article saying. that I think in the last quarter. AI was 75% of GDP growth. And by the. way, this is just the capex part. This. is the physical infrastructure. This is. not the economic impact of the tokens. that are generated inside the token. factory. This is the building of the. factories. How do those tokens get used? like we're seeing they're being used not. just to do research or to answer. questions but to create code. And so. we're seeing this explosion of.

productivity in software development. And we're seeing an explosion of bespoke. software being created and that's going. to accelerate every part of the economy. Every business that now wants to get. code will be able to get code for the. first time. Before they couldn't even. hire the engineers, they needed to. generate it. Now they will be able to. So that is a huge unlock of productivity. across the economy. Then you're getting. into these new use cases like the the. co-working use cases and agents, right? So the the workflow automations that are.

happening, it's still early. I don't. believe that this is going to replace. humans. We had that um in the past week, we had that crazy case of an agent. deleting a production database in 9. seconds because because of a bug. Look, what that said to me is that. >> it's not that agents aren't valuable. They are valuable, but they have to be. supervised. You know, this idea that. you're just going to be able to like. automate all the jobs away. It is a. massive amount of handwaving over the. real technical problems and issues. The. agents have to be supervised. Someone.

has to be accountable. It's not going to. be the CEO. The CEO doesn't want to be. accountable for thousands of agents. You. need people. >> despite what Jack had block said. >> Yeah. Thousand direct reports is a great. like goal, but it's not realistic. Yeah, >> you need IT people who are savvy who can. supervise this and make sure it's. working. They have to be accountable to. the CEO. Someone has to drive the. productivity. It's like Bology always. said, AI is not end to end is middle to. middle. You have to have someone to do. the prompting and you have to have.

someone to do the validating and I would. add the supervision and accountability. So anyway, the larger point though is. I'm speaking to the fact that I don't. think there's going to be this huge job. loss associated with this productivity. boom that we're going to get. And in. fact, I think what's actually happening. now is that AI is becoming synonymous. with the American economy. I mean, the. fact that it's generating 75% of GDP, you have this capex explosion, this. energy explosion that feeds it, and. again, just the beginning of the.

applications that are being unleashed by. these new token factories. I think it's. all a very, very positive thing. and all. these doomers who are trying to throw a. wet blanket on it or constantly scaring. the daylights out of people. I mean, what do they want the American economy. to do? Just to stop I mean, they just. don't want any progress. I mean, like. again, you know, when you talk about. stopping AI or halting AI progress? What. you're really doing is stopping the. American economy now. You're basically. saying you don't want economic growth.

AI is now synonymous with the growth of. the American economy. And if there's no. economic growth, there's not gonna be. money to pay for all the social. programs. There's not gonna be money to. pay down the national debt. There's not. gonna be money to basically build up our. national defense. All these things we. want to spend money on. We have to have. a vibrant economy. And that is now. synonymous with AI. So I know that AI. may not be popular. I see those polls. But having a strong economy is popular. And I believe that those things are now. synonymous. It's almost like there was.

some architect or ZAR who set up the. chessboard in the first year of this to. make sure that it was ultra competitive. >> President Trump set the table on this. >> Absolutely. With some good advice, I. think. Maybe. >> Freeberg, your thoughts? >> It's always good to have good advisors. >> Always good to have good advisors. Absolutely. Absolutely. >> No, but look, I've said it before. The. president just wants America to win. >> Literally, there are people who if we. were looking at this, you know, I don't. know, a hundred years ago, it'd be like. people were like, "Yeah, you know what? we shouldn't build the highway system or. we half built the highway system. Let's.

stop let's stop building the highways. >> No, the highway system was funded by the. federal government. There was no. competition. It was the most expensive. on a on a inflationadjusted basis. I. think it was the most expensive project. in US history. >> Yeah. And the railroads before that like. you can't stop these things. They have. to keep going. It's interesting point. you know there is so much demand for the. resource of tokens of intelligence. freeberg and it's quite different than. the fiber situation as Sax correctly. points out where we [snorts] built all.

this but we didn't actually have an. application here the application is. pretty um pretty wellnown and you've got. a large number of people in businesses. who are trying to vibe code their way to. success trying to push this stuff and we. had an interesting story referenced. earlier in the show. where. uh Claude ate somebody's homework. This. is the nightmare of all nightmares. Somebody was vibe coding. Uh it was the. founder of Pocket OS. Apparently, they. make software for rental car companies.

He was using Opus 4.6 through Cursor's. AI platform, their coding platform, and. uh you know, which is like the most. expensive tier. Uh and he said he. configured it with enough safety rules, but the agent was working on a routine. task. They saw some sort of credentiing. mismatch and they decided to fix the. mismatch by deleting a railway volume. without user confirmation and uh they. pushed the code from a repo to a live. app and they deleted everything. including the backups. Literally a scene.

from Silicon Valley's HBO clip of Son of. Anton. Hilarious. >> You gave your AI permission to overwrite. code in the internal file system. Were. you going to tell me about this? No, I. thought that was the company policy. these days. >> Okay, well, your AI just failed. epically. >> That's unclear. >> It's possible the Son of Anton decided. that the most efficient way to get rid. of all the bugs was to get rid of all. the software, which is technically and.

statistically correct. But artificial. neural nets are sort of a black box. So, we'll never know for sure. >> How did they get that so right, Zach? Five or six years ago, art and neural. networks are a black box. So, I guess. we'll never know. But technically, it. was correct. Freeberg, when you blow up. a hollow system with your vibe coding, which you were absolutely showing off in. front of Jensen a couple of weeks ago. about how much code you're pushing, who. are you going to blame? You going to. take responsibility yourself? Are you. going to blame Cla Claude or Kurser? Who.

are you going to blame when you blow up. the entire stack over at Ohio? >> Who you blame? >> Yeah, I'll blame Dario. >> You blame Dario. Okay, that's what I. thought. That's a correct answer. Correct answer. Blame Daario. He's the. one who says it's a doomsday machine. Uh, come on the prodio. 17th invitio. [laughter]. >> I mean, I've invited the guy like 17. times. He is totally going to me. He. wants nothing to do with this podcast. >> Actually, let me speak to that. So, I. think I think that um there's maybe a.

misperception that this error occurred. because of, you know, quote unquote AI. scheming, >> like kind of in that video that the AI. decided that the best way to get rid of. bugs is to basically eliminate the. codebase. This is kind of like the, you. know, AI is going to turn the world into. paper clips type thing where somehow. it'll like miss scheme. That's not. really what happened here. This is a. case of just a of old-fashioned bugs. occurring at an edge case. You know, you've got the fact that this API was.

not designed for permissioned usage. You've got the fact that a credential. was left kind of lying around. Probably. it should not be. There's kind of like a. perfect storm that caused the AI to do. something or the agent to do something. that didn't quite understand it was what. it was doing. I think that if there is a. systemic problem here rather than just. kind of a like a random edge case is. that AI still doesn't know what it. doesn't know. You know, like a human.

would stop before deleting a production. database and just say, "Oh, I'm about to. do something like really serious, really. destructive. Am I sure I want to do. this?" You know, and a human would have. stopped and said, "Oh, wait a second. like I need to be more confident in what. I'm doing before I take that action. And. AI still has this issue where again it. can be kind of overcon. This is where. like the hallucinations come from is it. doesn't know when it should have a low. confidence in its output, right? But. this is why it has to be supervised. You. know, the longer the time horizon for a.

task, the more likely it is to go off. the rails. >> And a drift. Exactly. And this is why I. think people are starting to realize. that this idea of eliminating all. software developers was the peak of. inflated expectations. Yes. >> Right. There was actually a really good. tweet on this by Aaron Levy who's got. the right take on this. Aaron retweeted. Matthew Glacius who sort of sardonically. tweeted that 5 months in I think I've. decided I don't want to vibe code. I.

want professionally managed software. companies to use AI coding assistants to. make more better, cheaper software. products that they sell to me for money. >> Just lower your prices. Don't make me. vibe code is the translation. >> Yeah. I mean, I think like rare win for. for Madaglacius there. Anyway, Aaron. Levy then says. Agent Coding is a huge win for software. developers that want to get more done. and it's fantastic for anyone curious to. learn how to start coding. What it's. less great for is casually building.

complex software that you have to. maintain on an ongoing basis and take. all the risk for upgrades, maintenance, keeping up to date with latest security. issues, you know, the bugs, cyber, those. are taxes on most knowledge workers who. aren't familiar with the system. >> It's not a tax. It's a huge risk. >> Yes, it's a risk has to be managed if. you don't. People will get fired because. there will be some public companies. where some goofball tries to vibe code. their way out of something and they're. going to torch the enterprise value. It's going to be glorious to watch.

because we're all going to laugh and. realize that was stupid and should never. have happened in the first place. >> Yeah. I mean, it's there is a chance. that this improves to the point passes. trial of disillusionment and becomes. super productive and you'll be able to. get an agent to do reasonable things. without deleting your data set. But we. have a way to go. Here is your, you. know, this is the tech adoption chart. Basically, you got a technology gets. triggered. You have the trial, you have. this peak of inflated expectations. You. go into the trial of disillusionment and. then the slope of enlightenment invest. and eventually it becomes deer and it's.

an opportunity. Hey, uh, Freedberg, you have become reddit tide curious. You. have and also. >> tell me tell me about rea cuz I want it. I want to get on it. M. >> I want to use it and I need you to tell. Nat that it's okay for me to take it. >> I I have a friend who has some advice as. well. >> Freeberg, the coverage is coming out of. this phase three clinical trial data. release that Lily put out last month. So.

everyone's going crazy over the data. which continues to show pretty amazing. results. So unlike trazepatide which is. kind of Lily's main. product today, it's a which is a dual. agonist. It's got two peptides in it. that that bind to different receptors, the GLP1, the GIP receptor. This other. one now also binds to glucagon, which is. a third receptor. And that glucagon. receptor binding peptide causes the.

cells to increase their metabolism, which actually accelerates fat energy. consumption. over what would typically be muscle. energy consumption. It's more likely to. burn up fat early on, which causes more. quick fat loss, but also reduces muscle. loss. And some of the other data that's. now coming out shows non-HDL cholesterol. down 27%, triglycerides down 41%. >> Liver fat down 80% to.

>> 80% reduction of liver fat. A1C drops. from 7.9% to 6% in 40 weeks, which is. amazing, by the way. If you're diabetic. and your A1C drops that much in a couple. of months, it's literally a life-saving. product. The average user in this phase. 3 trial saw their weight decline from. 214 pounds. They lost 37 pounds. That's. compared to six pounds on placebo. in 40 weeks. And you know, modest side. effects. 20% people felt more nauseous.

than the people that were on the. placebo. There's a lot of other separate. studies that are being done now that are. showing significant reductions in. inflammatory signaling molecules. So. systemic signaling of like hey cells are. in distress triggers this kind of. inflammatory process that can have a lot. of other damage to your body can. accelerate aging. And so one of the. other conversations is that retride. might actually be kind of a deaging drug.

as well. Hercules, Hercules, Hercules, you know, and a lot of the studies, by. the way, are done on the the the very. high dose, 12 milligram dose, but you. could probably get this thing dosed down. to 2 milligrams and still see a lot of. the anti-inflammatory. maintenance and other benefits. I'm no. doctor, but people are going nuts over. this being more widely useful than just. for clinical obesity or type when the. FDA when's the projected date for. >> 2027. Mid 27. >> That's what they're saying. Could happen.

sooner. I mean, the data is in the, you. know, the FDA will take their time to. evaluate it, but I think given the way. this is all looking, >> could happen sooner, could happen. sometime later this year. Swim Chimath. Swim said it's incredible and that uh. it's living up to the hype in their. experience. >> Who? >> Swim. >> What is that? What is that? >> Someone who isn't me. Swim. >> Oh, >> this is a Reddit term. Someone who isn't. me said who has a guy swim has a guy and.

has cycled on reddatride and does. push-ups and says muscle gain has been. spectacular. no muscle loss and a lowering of fat. >> If you go on X and you just search up. rea. >> Mhm. >> it's like incredible. You see these like. 65 year old guys that go from a dadbod. to looking like an incredibly ripped. athlete in weeks. And and I.

I mean I'm shocked. And then for me I. don't need that help per se, but my. liver health is important to me. My. cardiac health because I'm South Asian. and it just looks like a wonder drug. I. can't wait. When you starve your body, when you turn off the the appetite, which is the GLP-1 agonist function, normally your body goes into this kind. of mode of starvation and you have this. process by which your body tries to. generate energy from your existing. cells. And because muscle is much denser. than fat, you can have a favoring of.

muscle tissue being kind of broken up. over fat tissue. But what this new. agonist, this glucagon agonist that they. put into this neutrutide. is it favors fat burning over muscle. burning. And so that actually can drive. short-term use at low dose for people to. cut weight and maintain muscle and get. ripped. And so that's why a lot of. people in the kind of fitness community. are talking about, hey, I want to get. access to this and get on it for a. while. So you'll see a lot more hype. probably in that community as well as.

the all the health effects. It just. feels like we're about to have an. absolute avalanche of peptides to choose. from. >> On November of 2025, Lily cut a deal. with the Trump administration. I saw. this to drop the price on Drespatide. pretty significantly. I think it's like. 50 bucks on Medicare. >> 50 bucks from Medicare. Yeah. >> Yeah. Which is a pretty cheap price. point, but it starts to make sense as. you think about the portfolio of Lily. products. You get Tzepide for 50 bucks, but if you want to upgrade, get the. Retatride. That's the high premium. product and that's where they're going. to start the Mercedes to the Honda. I'm.

sure if I'm Lily and I'm sitting there. and I'm looking at this data coming out, I'm like, "My god, people will pay for. this and that starts to become sort of. like the upgrade to the BMW or the Model. S plat if you will.". >> Yeah. The Trappetide is like the one. bedroomedroom messy bed hotel room. >> and the other one's the sweetide. is like the twobedroom suite. >> Well, you can also, by the way, you guys. know I'm a spokesman for Row. They also. have the Waggoi pill uh row.co/twist. cotwist uh to get your.

>> Wait, are you a paid talking about. [laughter] Are you a paid What are you. talking about? We're putting Charles. Barkley and. >> we're not having sales team. and then you come over on Allin and you. start promoting. >> No, no, no, no. Trust me, we'll get one. of those as well. We'll get a row. Sponsorship here. >> What was the ro pill that you had me. get? What was it called? >> Oh, sparks. Sparks. Sparks. Did you take. it? >> I have taken it and now. >> Amore please. No, not. >> maybe just a half of a lousy.

>> I want to hear the story. I want to hear. the story. Go. >> It's so out of control. >> I told what I told you. >> So then what happens is Nat and I are. like, you can't you can't just randomly. use it. It's scheduled. We discuss it. We put it on the calendar. >> You need a plan. >> You need a plan. >> You need a plan. Can't go in. >> because otherwise otherwise it's too. much. You just can't randomly take it. >> What do you mean? >> It's going to be a sesh. >> It's a whole thing, man. It's like I. don't have the energy for that. >> It's an extended session. You you have. to be well rested. This don't do this at. 1:00 a.m. This is like a 10 p.m. This is.

like a No, this is more like a This is. more like on vacation, you know, like. >> 10:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m., you know, to. noon, you know, you got to really. >> you got to really schedule it. >> Schedule it because kids around. >> otherwise it's got to be empty. >> Otherwise, it's unfair to her and it's. just a li it's a lie. Put it [laughter]. out. >> It's a It's a big commitment literally. >> You You look embarrassed, Jim. Do you. feel embarrassed talking about it? It's. just a lot, man. It's like It's a lot to. handle. It's a lot. >> It's If you want to get the extra 20% in.

your performance, >> it's a lot, bro. >> It's a [laughter] lot. It's basically. over time. >> What happened? What happened was I was. like, "Oh, what is this thing?" Jason's. like, "Dude, you must get it. You must. get it." So, we got it. We tried it and. >> we were like, "What the was that?" And. so, [laughter] then I've been trying to. bleed the pills out. So, I gave some to. Stant Tang. I'm like, "Stanley, you try. it." Literally, he's dealing them like. cards. >> but when we're having poker dinner, I'm. like, does anybody want to try these. things? But these what is it? Rose.

sparks. Is that rose sparks? Shout out. to my friends out. All right, let's keep. moving here. Freedberg, guys. Friedberg. had his own personal Super Bowl. You see. me getting ready for Nick's playoff. season. I get my courtside. Freeberg had. the equivalence acts. He went to the. Supreme Court in order to hear them talk. about chemicals. This was a big deal for. him. The Supreme Court coming together. Did you wear it? Yes. The Monsanto trial. happened in the Supreme Court and he. went he got courtside. He went to the.

Supreme Court and listened in the. building. Have you guys ever seen a live. Supreme Court hearing? >> No. I'd love to. >> I'd love to. Tax, have you been? >> No, I haven't actually. >> I mean, honest honestly, I think it was. one of the most amazing experiences I've. ever had. There was a massive protest. out front. We went through the. marshall's office to get in. And that. building, you walk in, it's like sacred. It's all marble. It's you're not allowed. to talk. You have to be super quiet when. you're in the building. Like they keep. going like you're in some quiet library. It's like people treat it with this.

level of kind of sanctity that that and. respect. And they're like, there is no. politics here. There is no. There is no freedom of speech. This is. the court. When you come into this. court, the justices tell you how you. will speak, how you will behave, what. you will do, and you will not speak. unless spoken to. You put all your stuff. in a locker, you go up the stairs, you. go into the the courtroom. And the. courtroom, it's just so amazing being in. there. They have this amazing marble. freeze above the justices that has some. of the great people of human history, Moses and these kind of amazing.

historical figures. And then below them. are the nine justices and the court. case. If you guys haven't watched the. case, you can listen to them, I think, online. on you. Is it worth listening. to? >> Hold on. Wait, wait, wait. I have a. question. So, >> does Robert sit in the middle cuz he's a. chief? Yes. >> And then do all of the right justices. sit on the right? >> No, they're mixed. So, they're I think I. don't know I don't know the exact. seating, but they're mixed in terms on. appointments of the court. Is. >> that right? I think that's right. And. then so yeah, that's right. And then it. kind of goes out from the middle with.

Roberts in the middle. Roberts. occasionally will name the justices and. say, "Hey, do you have a question? Do. you have a question?" if no one's. talking, but otherwise the justices will. jump in with their questions when they. want and they'll ask. Now, honest to. God, watching this is like watching. LeBron James play basketball. These. lawyers are so mind-blowingly impressive. on both sides that you would just like. sit there and I was like in awe. It was. so I I felt like my energy was. completely sapped from me at the end of. this process because you were just so.

engaged and so caught into the way that. these guys are thinking and talking. >> Did you take a rose sparks? Did you take. a rose sparks when you were there? >> No. And if you're familiar if you're. familiar enough with the case or the. case history or the law that's being. debated because again when when you get. to the Supreme Court, you never debate. the case. What you're debating is the. legal interpretation of the the. decisions that were made on the case. And so is this constitutional? How do. you interpret this particular act, this. law, this federal law? What's the right. way to think about it? So you don't. actually talk about the case. You talk. about the interpretation of American.

law, of our laws, of our constitution, of the. global. >> You're saying the facts have already. been determined. >> That's right. >> Right. At a lower court, there's. questions of fact and questions of law. >> The facts have already been determined. by the lower court. It's just Supreme. Court is ruling on questions of law. >> That's right. And so they have a full. briefing with the full history of the. case. And remember, they only hear two. cases a day. So they're one hour each. for each hearing. >> So you go in and they only do it Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday on the last two. weeks. and they only hear cases from.

October to April. There's only a handful. of cases that are selected. >> Wow. So you're really on a shock clock. then to make. >> you're on a shot clock and you only have. and it's 30 minutes aside and then the. justices will ask question. >> So this was Monsanto and Roundup, right? So what was the law that was being. debated. >> for yours? The regulatory body, the EPA. sets the label for pesticides. Does this. cause cancer or not? What are the. warnings? This can be damaging for birth. defects, pregnancy, all the things that. we're all used to seeing on labels. when. you buy a product, a chemical product. and the EPA and their regulatory.

authority determined that Roundup does. not cause cancer. When you sell a. pesticide, you first have to register it. with the EPA, get it approved, and then. the EPA gives you a label. And the label. is written by the EPA. It says exactly. what you're supposed to say. And in this. case, it said all this stuff doesn't say. cancer because they determined it does. not cause cancer. And I'm not going to. debate whether or not it causes cancer, but that's the case that was made is. that the EPA is the regulatory body. under a federal act called FIFRA, fungicide, insecttoide or denicide act.

And that's where the EPA is given their. regulatory authority to put the label on. these products. And all of the cases. that have been lost have been state. failure to warn cases. To date, Bayer, which now owns Monsanto, has paid out. $10 billion in these lawsuits, and they. have reserved 10 billion on their. balance sheet. They have 90,000 cases. still outstanding in the courts. 90,000. >> Wow. >> And so, this one case got kind of. appealed up to the Supreme Court. Last.

year, the White House solicitor general, and if the solicitor general steps up. and asks the Supreme Court to take a. case, it's more likely the case gets. taken. So, the White House said, "Please. take this case. We need to have federal. preeemption, meaning the federal. government has the right to set the. label because all of the cases that have. been lost and that are being adjudicated. are in state courts where the state has. a law like in California called a. failure to warn law, which means if a. manufacturer knows that a product. carries a risk, you have to warn the. consumer. And so the the lawyers have.

been arguing that Monsanto or Bayer knew. that this product caused cancer and. didn't warn the consumer. And they've. been winning cases. they've been losing. cases, but they've won enough cases that. this has now become a multi-dea billion. dollar problem. And so the argument is. that the EPA says it doesn't cause. cancer and they have federal. preeemption. So the EPA has the right to. determine. So that's the one argument. But then when the other attorney came. up, this guy was like literally like. watching LeBron James. And so going in,

we're like, "Oh, 63 Bayer's going to. win." And then the other guy comes up. and he was like, "Well, hey, you guys. overturned the Chevron doctrine last. year. You guys remember that case? >> Yeah. Where basically when the Chevron. doctrine got overturned, it basically. said that no longer. >> does the federal agency get to decide it. has to be a direct reading of the law. >> Duh. So now, so he's saying like the. states should have a right to read the. law themselves. They shouldn't have to. just defer to the EPA. And that's what. this will come down to. So at the end of.

it, we were like, "Oh my god, this could. be a 50/50 coin flip, 54 either way.". And going into it, we were kind of like. trying to say, "Hey, maybe this could be. 63." So honestly, the whole experience. was incredible. The case is interesting. >> These are very complicated matters. How. are these people able to make a. wholesome argument in like one side gets. 30 minutes, the other side gets 30. minutes, there's a little Q&A, and then. you're done in an hour. >> There's this whole art and science and. Sax, you're probably familiar with this. on how do you distill down a Supreme. Court case in the briefing dock? Like. what is it you're petitioning around the.

court? and you try and distill it down. to the exact legal interpretation you. want the judges to rule on, not all the. other. >> And this is oral arguments. Yes. >> Oral arguments, just a discussion. And. then the judges jump in and all they're. doing is asking the lawyer questions, one lawyer at a time, the one side and. then the other side. And by the way, the. solicitor general came up in the middle. and kind of made a few comments and they. asked her some questions from the White. House and she sat down and then the two. sides kind of went back and forth and. and they just it's like 30 minutes Q&A. each on that one specific legal question.

and Katanji Brown Jackson said, "But. what if after the EPA issued the label, they found out information that it does. cause cancer? Shouldn't they update the. label?" And he's saying, "Well, no, they're not allowed to. They can only. issue the label the EPA says." And he. says also and it's it's a criminal case. if they find out that it does cause. cancer and they don't report it to the. EPA and then she's saying well what if. the EPA doesn't act and shouldn't the. states have a right to protect their. people? So those are the legal. arguments, the discussions that are. going on in all of this. And there's. interesting implications which is.

fundamentally if the states get to. interpret federal law and ignore federal. regulatory bodies, it opens up a whole. new can of worms in terms of like all. the states can start to ignore federal. regula regulatory bodies like the EPA or. the FDA or the USDA or and on and on and. on. So the whole case has a whole bunch. of really interesting implications wound. up in it. when you hear these guys and. they're just talking chimat about that. exact like interpretation of the law and. that's what this comes down to. It's not. the actual case that matters. >> and after the sachs they oral arguments.

and then they have like a private. conference where they'll write their. papers and give their final judgment. Yeah. >> Saxs. >> Yeah. Yeah, I think what happens is that. so I guess there's some discussion that. happens behind closed doors and they. figure out where the majority is and. then the chief gets to assign who writes. the opinion for the majority. >> in that meeting nobody is allowed in and. in fact you have a double door system. where like if anything needs to come in. and out you have to like kind of like. knock on the door you're led into this. anti chamber then. >> oh is it an airlock is an airlock.

>> it's effectively we I had I don't know. if you were there Jason but we had Ted. Cruz come to play in the poker game. >> uh And Ted Cruz clerked for William. Ranquist and if you want to have an. incredible dinner, ask him about the. Supreme Court and Bill Ranquist. He's a. real student of the Supreme Court and it. just makes the Supreme Court free to. your point sound like the most. incredible body that's ever been created. anywhere. By the way, more than the. White House, more than the Capital.

Building, more than any of these other. big agencies, this place has it's almost. like being in England, it has these kind. of ways that people operate. The the the. security is so different. They kind of. stand there in the court and they all. exchange places every 20 minutes. It's. very coordinated. They're dressed very. differently than any other. >> courtroom listening. >> Maybe like 150, I would say. How do you. take it? Are they on. >> I actually think everyone is a guest of. a clerk or someone that works at the. court. I don't think that it's like very. publicly available to get in there.

>> You can't line up. There's no lineup. >> There's I don't know if there's a. lineup. Um this was a connection through. we got in through the chief justice. Um. he gave us the pass, but I think it was. like very um. >> I think at the Elon versus Open AI case. there's you can line up and then the. judge gave like 30 tickets to the press. court. No, no. Yeah, but I think there's. a lineup for the Supreme Court as well. There's some public access that they're. >> It did not look like anyone from the. public was in this court. Everyone, everyone is dressed respectfully. I.

mean, this court has an incredible. amount of like, >> you know, cool experience. >> I would I would just say uh enjoy it. while you can. I mean, I think the. Supreme Court is one of the last highly. functional institutions in the United. States. And%. >> you know at some point we're going to. have like 13 or 21 or some crazy number. of justices up there. and get jersey. after justices there and so enjoy it. while it's still. >> in the current in the current form it's.

in. >> Can you imagine showing up with jerseys. with the justices names on them and like. having sections and like somebody. selling cracker jacks. >> theocracy version of [laughter] the. Supreme Court. >> version. Exactly. >> The popularity of the court really. depends on whether it's issuing. decisions that people agree with. That's. what it comes down to. If like if you. ask people whether they like the Supreme. Court or not, it really just depends on. whether they agree with the decisions. are recency as opposed to.

>> the process of the decisions and how. well argued it is and all these things. that you're pointing to. And actually. the the court I mean I just checked the. numbers. The court is relatively popular. right now. I think that it got as low as. 35% in the 2024 Gallup survey, but I. think it's back up to, you know, like 44. to 50% favorability, which for something. that's involved in politics is. relatively high, right? Like you look at.

Congress or. >> any particular politician, they're going. to be lower than that typically. I just. felt so assured of like the institution. when I visited and saw these guys. interact and behave and how they behave. the process. It was like. >> man this what an amazing country. Yeah. >> Well, the reason I say what I say is. there was an interview with James. Carville recently. Did you guys see. this? He saidaw he said look when we get. power we're packing the court. >> So we're not even going to we're not. going to worry about it. >> And we're going to get to 13, right? He.

said we're going to make. >> I think Yeah. They're going to go from 9. to 13 and then they're going to create. some new states and all the rest of it. So that'll be that. >> Uh. >> enjoy enjoy while it last. Enjoy. >> Enjoy while it lasts. >> Uh by the way, >> end on a high note. >> Wait. Yeah. [laughter] It's the end of. the empire. That'll be that. >> By the way, there is uh a Supreme Court. on I was correct. There is an online. ticketing lottery. So we can all sign up. and you can get a fourack of tickets. I. think they should make this I we should. talk to Howard Lutnik. Maybe he can make.

this an auction. We get a revenue stream. from the US. We could sell like 10 of. the tickets as courtside seats for 20. grand. >> Jason, you're exactly what they're. trying to protect against. >> Exactly. [laughter] Like, how can we how. do we monetize the Supreme Court? >> All right, everybody. That's it. That's. the world's greatest podcast for you for. Chimoth Poly Hatia, David Freeberg, and. David Saxs. I am the world's greatest. moderator. We'll see you chief justice. >> I'm like the chief justice of [laughter]. the allin podcast. >> [music]. >> We'll let your winners ride.

>> Rainman David. and it said we open [music] sourced it. to the fans and they've just gone crazy. with it. >> Love you queen of. winners. [music]. >> Besties are gone. >> That is my dog taking a [music]. driveway. >> Oh man. My habitasher will meet. [music]. >> We should all just get a room and just.

have one big huge orgy cuz they're all. just useless. It's like this like sexual. tension that you just need to release. somehow. >> Your feet. [laughter] We need to get Mercury's. already. [music]. I'm going all in.