Anthropic’s $30B Ramp, Mythos Doomsday, OpenClaw Ankled, Iran War Ceasefire, Israel's Influence

How many PRs you think are going to get. pushed to the core structural internet. in 100 days? What's the overunder. number? Cuz I'll give you a number. >> You're going to say zero. My my answer. to that is. >> I'll say like 10,000. But it's going to. be immediately. >> if it prevents your browser history from. being released to everybody in the. world, Chamath, that may be something. that you're willing to, you know, let. 100 days pass on. >> I think you got Chimat's attention when. you said browser history. >> What about the dickpicks? >> Chamat is he's going to release them. himself.

We'll let your winners ride. >> We open source it to the fans and. they've just gone crazy with it. Love. you. >> All right, everybody. Welcome back to. the number one podcast in the world. David Freeberg is out this week. But in. his place, the one, the only, our fifth bestie, Brad Gersonner. I. mean, why don't you ever give me puts a. little namaste in your payday anymore?

You used to be. >> I'm going to bring back the greatest. moderator, but now it's just kind of You. know what? These guys beat me up. They. beat me up and they just beat the the. joy out of me doing this program. >> It's because you're a Roana apologist. now. >> No, I We'll get into it. Okay. Save it. for the Roana apologist. just. because I said like, "Hey, they've. stopped maxing and they've. started doing like some logical things.". Uh, yeah. Okay, here we go.

>> It's great to be here. Great to be here. >> Good to have you. Good to have you here. And of course, uh, we have David Saxs is. back. Everybody wants to hear from David. Sax. We missed you last week, bestie. >> We didn't beat the joy out of you. We. just try to beat some of the hot air. Turn. >> any any fluff that you can put on the. show that just involves you talking and. saying nothing is. >> that's the stuff we got. >> Turn up. Yeah. Turn up. Okay. Yeah, we'll cut it right out. Um we'll cut it. out and we'll just put a promo in for. the syndicate.com. Thank you. Also with.

us, Jamalet is here. >> How's your maxing going since. last week? Did you have a a a. maxing full weekend? Did you have a good. full weekend of just smoking cigars in. the back deck and not ruminating about. all the chaos you've caused in the last. 20 years? >> I think I've done generally more good. >> than than not. >> Oh, you have. But there's been some. chaotic moments. Don't think about it. >> You can't, bro. You can't have ups. without downs, man. It's like, what are.

you there to do? Just like plate. everybody and be a loser? Are you there. to be a winner? Yes, you're in the. arena, but have you stopped going to. therapy after realizing ruminating? >> What's up with this uh sudden interest. in maxing? Are you like the. clavvicular for maxing? >> No, the world finally caught up with me. That's it. What do you I mean, I've been. maxing this whole time. THEY JUST. DIDN'T HAVE A name for it, guys. >> Wow. Okay. Eli's videos are really good. I watched two more this week. What take us through what's so appealing.

about not ruminating, smoking a cigar, and just living your life? >> Because what he says actually works at. every level of society and every sort of. thing that you may want to achieve. Even. if you're trying to like climb the. rungs, you very quickly learn that the more you. want something, the less you're going to. get it. And I think that's like his real. message is let go, live life, and just. try stuff or don't try stuff. And I. think that that detachment is really.

healthy for people. I like it. I like it. a lot. >> Who's the guy who says this? I actually. didn't know. >> Elisha Long. Well, Eli, I think, is how. he goes by. >> But he's fantastic. He Mark YouTube. channel. >> Mark Andre found him. >> and he's like, "This is this guy is the. new guy. >> Modernday philosopher. He gives you a. road map for how to live your life, right? A new age sage. >> What's the name of the guy? The. character's name from Dune. >> I was into girls books. I was dating.

girls. >> He's the Lison Algib of the modern. internet. >> This is why we need Freeberg here is to. explain these deep holes. All right, listen. We got a lot to get to. Don't. The basic point is build something and. don't ruminate. Okay, ruminating is just. not worth it. Just everybody go for it. >> No, just do stuff. Stop blathering in. your own head. Just do stuff. Absolutely. All right. Listen, speaking. of doing so, Anthropic is withholding. its newest model, Mythos. I'm using the. Greek uh pronunciation, its newest. model, Mythos, uh saying it is far too.

dangerous for any of us to have access. to it. According to the company, the. model autonomously found thousands of. vulnerabilities, including bugs in every. major operating system and web browser. This uh little study they did included. 20 year old exploits that had been. missed by security audits for decades. Uh some examples, they found a 27y old. vulnerability in OpenBSD used in. firewalls and critical infrastructure. They found a 16-year-old bug in FFmpeg. that was missed by automated tools after.

5 million scans. The Linux kernel, all. kinds of uh bugs they found. They. released a hype video hyping up why they. were not going to share this model. Here's Dario. Come on the program. anytime, brother. >> But as a side effect of being good at. code, it's also good at cyber. >> The model that we're experimenting with. is by and large as good as a. professional human at identifying bugs. It's good for us because we can find.

more vulnerabilities sooner and we can. fix them. >> It has the ability to chain together. vulnerabilities. So what this means is. you find two vulnerabilities, either of. which doesn't really get you very much. independently, but this model is able to. create exploits out of three, four, sometimes five vulnerabilities that in. sequence give you some kind of very. sophisticated end outcome. >> All right, Brad, uh, by the way, that. set they're using there, that's the same. room those guys play Dungeons and. Dragons in every Sunday. Brad, you're. Brad, you're an investor in this.

company. Is this virtue signaling or is. it reality? Is this a good move by them. to not release this model and be. thoughtful, give it to a handful of. people and just find all the bugs it can. before releasing it to the public? And. we've got a lot more issues to discuss. >> I I actually think they deserve a ton of. credit here and let me walk you through. why, right? They the company could have. just released Mythos, broken a lot of. core things on the internet. Often times. in Silicon Valley, we say move fast and. break things. In this case, it means.

just releasing the model to move further. ahead of your competition. But here the. company realized it would wreak havoc. They ran their own vulnerability. testing. They saw that it would allow. offensive hacking and people to expose. browsers and browser history, expose. credit cards, you know, on the internet. So, you know what I like about this is. they didn't need government to hold. their hand on this. We have plenty of. government regulations. They know it's. in the best long-term interest of the. company and the industry, you know. So, they set up Project Glass Wing. It's an.

AIdriven, you know, kind of cyber. coalition. Apple, Microsoft, Google, Amazon, JP Morgan, 40 of the most. important companies. And their goal is. very simple. Let's spend a 100 days use. advanced AI to find and to fix and to. harden these software vulnerabilities. before hackers exploit them. Now, what I. think this represents, Jason, is a. threshold that we're crossing. Mythos. and Spud, which is going to be out from. OpenAI any day now, which is the first.

Blackwell trained model at OpenAI. They. represent the beginning of what I would. call AGI models. These are models with. massive step function improvements and. intelligence. Um, and they're just too. smart to be released immediately, you know. And by the way, there was. nothing that said that every time you. you finish a model, you got to. immediately release it GA. So they set. up this idea of sandboxing, building. defensive alliances, you know, in order to move away from. that regime. I I think it shows, and.

Saxon and I have talked about this a. lot, so I'm interested to hear what he. thinks. It shows you can trust the. industry and market forces in. coordination with the government. They. were talking to the government about. this. But they're not relying on some. top- down regulation in order to do. this. They laid out a blueprint that. seems to me very pragmatic that now that. we're at this threshold, we're going to. sandbox these things. I think that open. AAI will end up doing the same thing. I. think Google will end up doing the same.

thing. It's an aggressive way to keep. the RA, you know, the pressure on and. and win the race at AI while making the. tradeoffs to protect safety. So, you. know, I think you're always going to. have to make these trade-offs. I think. in this case, it was a great move by. Dario and team and I think they deserve. a lot of credit. Sachs, when you look at. this, we had Emil Michael on the program. a couple weeks ago. It might have been. four or five weeks ago, and we had a. very thoughtful discussion about, hey, if the government is going to have these. tools, you know, an anthropic wants to. withhold them and, you know, what is the.

proper relationship there, you have to. think that the government, and I know. you don't speak for all parts of the. government. If you were just going to. run through the game theory, they must. have gone to the government and said, "Listen, this thing is so powerful, it. can put together two or three hacks, create a novel attack vector, and this. is incredibly dangerous. What if China. has it? And if this thing is as powerful. as Daario says it is, then this is an. offensive weapon as well for us to take. out, let's just pick, you know, uh, a.

pressing issue, the North Korea's. ballistic missile program. This is. equivalent the way it's being described. as the Manhattan project perhaps. So. what are the chances two-part question. for you Sax that China already has this. and is using it and do you think Daario. is doing the right thing by regulating. themselves? >> I think Anthropic has proven that it's. very good at two things. One is product. releases. The second is scaring people.

And we've seen a pattern in their. previous releases of at the same time. they roll out a new model or new model. card, something like that. They also. roll out some study showing really the. worst possible implication of where the. technology could lead. We saw this last. year about a year ago. They rolled out. this blackmail study where supposedly. the new model could blackmail users. There's been a whole bunch of these. things. Actually, I went back to Grock. and I just asked, "Hey, give me examples.

where Antropic has basically used scare. tactics and it's it's a pattern." Okay, it's a pattern. >> Okay, >> these guys, I'm not saying it's not. sincere, but they have a proven pattern. of using fear as a way to market their. new products. And if you think back to, again, my favorite example is this. blackmail study where they prompted the. model over 200 times to get the result. they wanted. And that result was was. clearly reverse engineered and it got.

them the headlines they wanted. And I. would say the proof that it's reverse. engineered is we're now a year later. There's a bunch of open- source models. out there that have the same level of. capability that that anthropic model. had. And have you seen any examples of. blackmail in the wild? I don't think so. So in other words, if that study were. true in the sense of being a likely. outcome of that model, I think you would. see examples in the wild of that. behavior. And we haven't seen any of. that in the past year. Now, let's talk.

about this specific example with cyber. hacking. >> I actually think that this one is more. on the legitimate side. I mean, look, the reason why I bring this up is. anytime Anthropic is scaring people, you. have to ask, is this a tactic? Is this. part of their Chicken Little routine? or. is it real? You know, are they crying. wolf or not? I actually would give them. credit in this case and say this is more. on the the real side. It just makes. sense, right? So that as the coding. models become more and more capable, they're more capable of finding bugs.

That means they're more capable of. finding vulnerabilities. And like one of. their engineers said, that means they're. more capable of stringing together. multiple vulnerabilities and creating an. exploit. And so I do think that over say. the next 6 months we're going to have. this call it one-time period of catching. up where AIdriven cyber is going to be. able to detect a whole range of of bugs. that maybe have been dormant over the. past 20 years across a wide range of. systems. And so I do think that there is.

real risk here. And I do think therefore. that having this pre-release period. makes a lot of sense where they're. giving the capability to all these. software companies that have existing. code bases to use the tool to detect the. vulnerabilities for themselves so they. can patch them before these capabilities. are widely available. And by the way, it. won't just be anthropic that makes these. capabilities available. We know that. like let's say the Chinese open source. models like Kimmy K2, it's about 6. months behind. So we have a window here.

of maybe 6 months where we're still in. this pre-release period where I think. companies that have large code bases can. get advanced access to this model and uh. I guess open AI is going to release a. similar thing in the next few weeks. I. do think that every company or IT. department or CISO that is managing code. bases should take this seriously and use. the next few months to detect any again. like dormant bugs or vulnerabilities and.

and roll out patches. If everybody does. their job and reacts the right way, then. I do not think it will be the doomsday. scenario that Anthropic is sort of. portraying. But it's one of these things. where the fear might end up being a good. thing in order to drive people to in. order to drive the correct behavior. So. >> sure, >> I ultimately think this is going to work. out fine, but you do need everyone to. kind of pay attention, use the. capabilities, >> fix the bugs, then we're going to get. into a big arms race between AI being.

used for cyber offense and AI being used. for cyber defense, but it'll be a more. normal sort of of period. Chimath, we. have uh Daario and uh you know a number. of the participants here are taking this. super seriously. They're making a big. statement. Zach's very nuanced uh I. think take there. What's your take on. how do these companies have it both. ways? Hey, this is shouldn't be. regulated. This should be regulated. If. this is in fact a cataclysmic, oh my.

god, they're going to hack everything. What if the Chinese have this right now? That would speak to more government. either coordination, regulation, or some. kind of relationship between the CIA, the FBI for domestic stuff, and these. companies because there it is a non-zero. chance that the Chinese have an equal. capability here. We're assuming they're. behind, but who knows what they're doing. behind closed doors. So, what's your. take on this? Is it uh The Boy Who Cried. Wolf, or is this the real deal? Now,

>> I think it's mostly theater. >> Okay. In February of 2019, when Daario was still at OpenAI, they did the same thing with GPT2. That was a 1.5 billion parameter model, which sounds like a total fart in the. wind in 2026. But at that time, this 1.5. billion parameter model was supposed to. be the end of days. And it was supposed. to unleash this torrent of spam and.

misinformation. And that was the big. bugaboo at the time. And so what. happened? They went through this. methodical roll out over six or nine. months. They started releasing the. smaller parameter models and then they. scaled up to the big 1.5 billion. parameter model. And at the end of it, it was a huge nothing burger. If you actually think that Mythos is. capable of doing what it says it can do, two things are true. One is a very. sophisticated hacker can probably do. those things right now with Opus.

And two, if these exploits. are this easy to find, whether you use Opus or whether you use. Mythos, the reality is you'd have to. shut down the internet for about 5 years. to patch them all. So when you see like. a large multi- trillion dollar gang, it's a bit of theater. Why? What do you. think they can actually accomplish in 2. months? Do you actually think that if. there's these vulnerabilities, it's all. going to get fixed? Let's give them six.

months. Let's give them nine months. But. the reality is that capitalism moves. forward, the funding needs moves. forward, and the need for these guys to. build adoption moves forward. And that's. going to supersede. what this is. So I do think that Sax is. right that they have figured out a very. clever go-to market muscle here and a go. to market motion that activates. hyper attention and hyper usage and so I.

give them tremendous credit and I'll. maintain what I've maintained before. Anthropic is shooting the lights out. right now. This is like Steph Curry. going bananas from every everywhere on. the court. These guys are hunking. threes. >> It's all in that. Okay. So huge kudos to. Anthropic, but we've seen it before. We saw it when. these folks were the principal. architects at OpenAI who are now seeing. the same playbook here. I think we'll. look back and I think what we'll say are.

these two things. One is if we're really. going to patch all these security holes, we need to shut down the internet. for some number of years, honestly, literally years. And the second is an. advanced hacker can probably do this. today with Opus if they really wanted. to. >> Okay. Hey Brad, I gota I'll get you in. here for the for the last word. I I'm. going to go with Yeah, maybe they did uh. Crywolf before, but based on what I see. with these models advancing and using. them and I'm using a lot of the open. source ones right now from China. I.

think that this is like code red kind of. moment. This is Defcon. like we should. be taking this deadly seriously and I. think these companies got to coordinate. with the CIA and this is uh equally a. defensive as offensive opportunity. Do. you think this. >> you're asking for the nationalization of. AI now? >> No, I actually I I I don't think it. should be nationalized. Um although I. did see people sort of insinuating that. I think these companies need to build a. group Brad that work and coordinate with. the CIA. I assume that they're already.

doing this. I'm assuming you Emil. Michael and uh you know Trump and. everybody have these people in a room. and that they've given the defcon and. said hey how can our government use this. to stop bad actors and this is already. being coordinated with the CIA and the. FBI. I am 100% certain of that that. Dario went to them and said look what we. found. This is the real deal. I'll give. you the last word on this Brad since. you're an investor in both companies and. you know them quite well. the frontier. model forum which was which was put. together in 23 um is cooperating on.

anti- and adversarial distillation stuff. as we speak right they don't want to. make it easy on you know so Google and. and open AAI and and anthropic they're. coordinating on this stuff you know. there are times where I've pushed back. on anthropic because I thought it was. you know perhaps regulatory capture or. something else this is very different in. my mind right he could have easily Dario. could have easily come out and said oh. my god we passed a threshold we need to. have a government moratorum. Remember, even our friend Elon called for a. six-month moratorium in 2023 because of.

civilization risk. This guy didn't do. that. Instead, he said, "Okay, what what. should we do? I'm going to get 40 of the. leading companies together. We're going. to spend a 100 days sandboxing, hardening the systems, and then we're. we're we're going to keep pushing. forward.". >> What do you honestly think is going to. get accomplished in a 100 days? How many. PRs you think are going to get pushed to. the core structural internet in 100. days? What's the overunder number? Cuz. I'll give you a number. You're gonna say. zero. My my answer to that is. >> I'll say like 10,000, but it's going to. be immediate.

>> But if it prevents your browser history. from being released to everybody in the. world, Chimat, that may be something. that you're willing to, you know, let a. 100 days pass on. >> I think you got Chimat's attention when. you said browser history. >> What about the dickpicks? >> As Chimat is, he's going to release them. himself right now. CHIMAT'S LIKE, "HEY, CHINESE HACKERS, HERE ARE MY DICKPICKS. Please put them out.". >> Oh my god. we have to be out there. complimenting when they're doing the. right things or relying on the market. rather than running to the nanny state. and saying do more of this. So this to.

me was just an example of of a of a good. balance. I'm sure we're going to have. plenty of debates about this in the. future. But you know this is one I would. like to see more of. >> This is why to use your word Jake I. tried to have a more nuanced take is. because we have no choice but to take. this seriously. Whether it's total. theater, whether it's fear-mongering, and they do have a pattern around this, we can't take the risk, right? And it. does logically make sense that as these. models become more and more capable at. coding, they're going to get better at. cyber. And there's going to be that one.

time period where you're moving from. preAI to post AAI, and you need a patch. for that. So, my guess is we're going to. see a lot of patches over the next few. months. I think that that will resolve. the problem. I think this is a case where I'm going. to give them the benefit of the doubt. I. I think that, you know, I've criticized. him in the past. I think that blackmail. study was embarrassing to the level of. being a hoax, but I think in this case, I'm going to give him credit and say. that I think that it's legit.

>> So, it's not the anthropic hoax. This. could be legit. I, you know, looking at. >> we have no choice but to treat it that. way. >> Of course. Yeah. I mean, even if two. things could be true at the same time, Saxs, they could have used this tactic. before. It could be performative, like. the video with the dramatic music in the. background. It does have a little bit of. drama to it, and the way they presented. it is very dramatic, but it does make. logical sense that the one company that. made the bet on code bigger than anybody.

else would be the one who would discover. this quickest. And you know in a 100. days that's a pretty good um that's a. pretty big advantage versus the hackers. But let me think one more point there. Jimat. >> the most important thing that people. haven't talked about here is the amount. of code being pushed right now because. of these tools is 10x 100x in most. organizations. So we need to have this. type of security embedded in these new. coding tools to do it in real time. That's the opportunity. There should be.

real time correcting of this. If this. was real, they picked the wrong. companies. Meaning, there are energy. companies, folks that control nuclear. reactors. There are airplane companies. that are flying hundreds of thousands of. people in essentially manufactured. missiles of like streaming gas going at. 500 miles an hour. None of those. companies were the ones that were. included in this. And so I think if you. really thought that this was end of.

days, at a minimum we can agree maybe we. should have expanded the circle a touch. Well, maybe those are customers of the. ones they're including here. Anyway, uh. this is a really important story. We'll. obviously track it in the coming weeks. to see what turns out to be reality. And. uh Daario, do come on the program at. some point. Hey uh Brad, will you get. Dario to come on the program? I've. invited him like three times. I got his. phone number. He's ghosted me. I don't. know why. >> Wait, he he's ignored you? I get. >> I literally got an introduction from the. number like one of the number one.

venture capitalists in the world. He's. on the cap table very early. He just. won't respond. I don't know why. >> I would tell you Daario's podcast with. Dwarkish who I think is an excellent. podcaster. I've listened to that three. or four times taken notes every time. It. is a really exceptional piece really. exceptional piece of work by by by them. >> All right, let's keep moving. We got a. lot on the job. >> You may once again be tarred with your. affiliation with us. >> Poor you. I mean, I don't care. Literally, I I've got friends on both. sides of the aisle. I have friends.

>> of course you do. >> Even JCAL. >> Even JCAL has friends everywhere. >> Let me ask Brad a question here just. while we're on the topic of anthropic. There was a really interesting story or. tweet I guess you could say by the. founder of OpenClaw. that. >> Peter. >> Peter. Yeah. What's his name? Peter. Steinber. >> Steinberger. Steinberger. >> Steinberger. Yeah. renowned coder created openclaw which is. kind of the thing that launched this. whole agent era now you I guess you. could say any event he said that. anthropic was cutting off his access to.

was it was to claw is that the next. topic. >> this is on the docket it's a little bit. nuanced. everybody using openclaw would take. their $200 a month subscription to. anthropic which was essentially like a. people were using more tokens and it's. an average the people from openclaw it. is very verbose and those people are. 100x the usage of the average. subscriber. So he said you can't use. your 200, you have to use the API. You. move from the $200 plan to the API, add.

a zero to your token use. So or more. And so they essentially anchored. Open Claw and then 10 days later or less. they released or announced their new. agent technology which is according to. them a safer better version of OpenClaw. So, hey, all fair in love and war and. they have basically shot a huge cannon. across the bow of openclaw. >> Wait, can you just explain that exactly? So, so I think you're right that they. systematically copied feature by feature.

>> of open claw, incorporated that into. clawed and then the coupross was. basically cutting off open. >> oxygen. Can you just explain exactly. what they did? Okay, very simply, when. you buy a subscription to these. services, they have blended your usage. across many users. So there's, you know, nine out of 10 users use less than the. tokens they're paying for and the top. 10% use much more. When OpenClaw became. a phenomenon, the number one open source.

project in history on GitHub with all of. this usage, people went crazy. And you. heard me talking about how crazy I went. for it. those people with the $200. subscriptions were using $2,000 $20,000. worth of tokens. So they said you can no. longer use your subscription to, you. know, either your professional or. enterprise subscription at $200. >> and plug that into your open claw. You. now have to go to the API and pay per. usage. So no more like. >> unlimited. If you use Anthropic's own. agent harness, are you part of the.

bundled flat rate? You can assume that. that's what they'll do, which if you. were thinking on an antirust level might. be token dumping or price dumping. I'm. not saying like I'm ratting them. >> No, it's like bundling, isn't it? >> Well, price dumping or bundling. When. you price something under the market. price in antitrust, that would be price. dumping, right? And if you were to. bundle, it would be like the bundling. issue. >> Critically important. You can use. openclaw via claw API and every company. has a right to set the price for its.

products. It's just saying that you were. for under their current regime, they. were selling dollars for 10 cents via. OpenClaw because these were such power. users and now they're just saying we. have to price this rationally, but we're. happy to have you guys use the API. So, >> okay. Okay. But Brad, when you use the. OpenClaw competitor that Anthropic now. offers, >> correct? >> Are they subsidizing that? Are you. paying? >> We don't know yet because it's in closed. beta. So in other words, what I'm saying. is if they charge for API usage, right, their own first party agent harness or.

system, then that would be apples to. apples. But if. >> if they end up charging the bundled flat. rate, let's say, for their stuff, but. then charge the metered rate for third. party stuff, you could make a bundling. argument. >> Sure. Sure. And you could say it's. anti-competitive assuming that Anthropic. has dominant market share in coding, which I think most people would say they. do at this point. >> And assuming that it's the same product, I mean, the reason most enterprises will. probably use the Anthropic uh version of.

this agentic product is because it meets. all of your security parameters, right? So, Altimter runs, you know, a lot of. stuff on Enthropic. They're already. integrated within our our data. warehouse, our data lake, things of that. nature. So just letting openclaw loose. on the uh altimeter you know data set. would not be wise and so it's a. different fundamental product. >> No I get that and I think that anthropic. has a huge advantage let's say cloning. open claw and just building it into.

claude. I'm not denying that to me that. would be the reason why they don't need. to do price discrimination is because. there's already a very good reason. >> to use the let's call it the bundled. offering on a featured basis. But the. question I'm specifically asking is. whether they're giving themselves a. price advantage because. >> I think Brad is giving the the most. generous interpretation. You're taking a. more cynical one. I'm with you, Saxs. I'm 100% on the cynical side. Open Claw. is so powerful. It's got so much. momentum that not only is anthropic.

trying to ankle it. I believe when Sam. Waltman bought it, it was uh and he. didn't buy OpenClaw itself, he hired. Aqua hired Peter. I believe it was to. subvert the open- source project to get. Peter's next set of genius ideas inside. of OpenAI as opposed to letting them go. there. People are going to say I'm a. conspiracy theorist, but this is the. number one focus and let me just give. you a list of who is trying to kill. OpenClaw/compete with them. Obviously, you have Anthropic, but also Perplexity.

Computer launched. It's awesome. I've. been using it. Anthropic has this clawed. managed agents. They dropped that on. Wednesday, April 8th. uh yesterday uh. today's Thursday when we tape you you. guys listen on Fridays and then you have. Hermes agent that was released on. February 25th that's also open source. and very good so that's in the open. source camp Alibab is coming out with. one that's going to be based on their. Quinn model then you have Elon who said. he's got something called rock computer.

coming out of macro hard which is a play. on words for Microsoft in addition to. that Amazon and Apple are preparing uh. new releases of their uh maxing. assistants Alexa and Siri that will be. less in this new version and. then nothing out of uh SAT and Microsoft. yet. So the number one goal I believe in. the large language model frontier model. space is to kill this open source. product. >> No, I mean come on like why they're. building multi-functioning agents that.

can move from answering questions to. actually doing something for you. like. you got to do that because that's what. consumers and enterprises wants. It. doesn't mean that it's about killing. OpenClaw. just this is an obvious thing. right to do it. >> but this is a giant movement to stop it. because this is the equivalent of having. an open-source Android like player in. the market and that could be incredibly. disruptive these I believe open source. is going to win the day on the large. language models and take 90% of the. token usage and I think the entire.

frontier model space could be undercut. by open source and I think they realize. that SLMs the the smaller language. models that are verticalized now that. will run on you know, desktops and. laptops and is even starting to run on. the top ones. That is their biggest. competitive threat and I hope it. happens. All due respect to your. investments, Brad, I think this. technology and the interface is uh you. know, he placed bets, but I I think it's. imperative that the agent level, which. is essentially your entire life, you. don't give that to Anthropic. You don't.

give that to OpenAI. That's your entire. business, your entire life. It is. foolish for you, Brad, to give your. entire business and all the knowledge. you have to anthropic through that. unless you're just doing it to boost. your um your your investment in those. companies. But I would be very concerned. if I was you with putting all of your. knowledge that you've earned over a. lifetime into any of these large. language models. >> All right, Jake, let me ask you. Can I. ask a question? Thank you for that. impassioned monologue. Um actually, I. want to ask my TED talk. >> I Yes, thank you for that TED talk. Um I.

have a yes no question for each of you. >> Do you believe that anthropic has. dominant market share in coding? right. now? Yes. No, >> no. >> In in coding, >> yes, >> they had the lead, but not that they had. the lead, but not dominating. >> I think it's a trillion dollar market, and these guys have less than 10% of it. today. So, it's hard to make a case that. >> What percent of coding tokens do you. think that anthropic is providing the. market right now? >> Greater than 50%.

>> Yeah, that's true. >> Okay, that's called dominant market. share. >> Uh, I don't know about that. >> More than 50% of the market. >> You got to look at what you got to look. at what the TAM is. with the Tan, >> right? There are a lot of people who. provide, you know, that that are in this. tiebreaker before we move on to the. next. >> I'm not saying it's a permanent. condition, >> but if you're telling me that today. >> Anthropic is delivering over half of the. coding tokens, that's clearly a dominant. position in the market for coding. It's. an early market. It could change, but.

>> if I were representing them, David, I. would say nine months ago, everybody t. called us uh, you know, out of the game. We were being destroyed by open AI in. three months. Now people are saying we. have dominant market position. This is. the fastest changing most competitive. market in the world. I think it would be. very hardressed to walk into, you know, some district court make the case that. these guys have somehow already formed a. monopoly against Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Open AI, etc. >> Well, I'm not saying it's a it's already.

a permanent monopoly, but I am just. asking about market share. And I do. think you guys all agree that. >> Shimov, go ahead. >> They probably have 50 to 60% market. share because I think codeex is actually. quite broadly used as well. >> But that belies the more important point. which is AI enabled coding I think is. still 5% of the broad market. So it's. kind of a nothing burger. Yes, they're. leading but they're leading in something. that isn't that big yet. Now you would. say how could it not be big? And what I.

would say is because most of the stuff. that's being written is still white. sheet denovo code. And I think the ugly. truth is I don't care what model you. have, but the long horizon ability for. any of these models to actually build. enterprisegrade software is still. shiit And that's the actual lived. experience. Not for me, but when I call. on our customers, half a trillion dollar. banks, hundred billion dollar insurance.

companies, none of these guys are like, "Wow, it just works out of the box." It. doesn't work. So, most of it is still. handtuned. So, until I can honestly tell. you that we can point a model at this. with the right guard rails, which I. can't today, what I would say is it's a. small market that will become large as. these models become better. But we are in the world where we have 50. years of accumulated tech debt as a.

world. And I suspect when you enumerate. the number of lines that that. represents, it's hundreds of trillions. of lines of just pretty marginal. mediocre code to bad code. On top of. that, we have all these legacy. languages. I'll tell you one of our. customers, they have to go and get. 60year-old pensioners to come into the. office to interpret cope. No, I'm not. joking. This is a. >> snowball for trend. >> This is a hundred billion dollar a year. revenue company and that's how they. solve these problems. It's not opus just.

solves it. So I I would just keep in. mind that most of the tech debt in the. world that exists 99% of it is still. poorly addressed by these models. We are. untying this Gordian knot. It's going to. take decades to do it right. So all the. breathlessness about all this other. stuff, I really think it's not where the. money is. It's not the big time stuff. And you can tell me, "Oh yeah, it's. going to be the future." And I would. say, "Tell this business that's a. hundred billion dollars a year of. revenue and 50 million billing. relationships that all of a sudden.

you're going to open claw your way to a. solution." It's Not to say. that you can't have a great chief of. staff, and not to say you can't do some. useful stuff and trickery and, you know, have a good knowledge base. I'd like. that, too. But the core things that your. lived experience sits on today is a mess. of tech debt that will get very slowly. replaced. And that's just the reality of. life. >> And there are competitors that are. extremely disruptive. I'll tell you. about one. We talked about Bit Tensor.

Tao on this program a couple weeks ago. when we had the um Jensen interview. You. brought it up actually Chimath. There's. a there's a project that's subnet 62. It's called Ridges AI. And what they're. doing is a competitor that is not only. open- source but anybody can contribute. to it. They spent about a million. dollars in tow like rewards and in 45. days they hit 80% of what Claude 4 is. and they did that in under 45 days. The. way that works is they give rewards for. people who and they can do this.

anonymously make that coding product. which is like codeex or claude code. better. that flywheel is racing right. now with participation in the same way. Bitcoin is. So you're going to see a lot. of open- source and these crypto. open-source combinations and uh anybody. who's not investigated this, I highly. recommend you investigate this. >> I do think you're right about one. specific thing. I would put zero, literally the probability zero of any. important company worth anything more.

than a dollar having and outsourcing. their production code to an open source. project. That'll never happen. However, what will happen though is when you look. at the cost of training this 10 trillion. parameter model on Blackwell and when. you look in the future let's just say in. six or nine months that a 15 or 20. trillion perm model is going to get. trained on Vera Rubin I think Jason. where you are right I have zero and just. to be clear I have no investments in.

this at all I'm. >> to be so super clear. >> I'm just observing because another. project other than Bit Tensor that. someone brought up to me is Venice. The. concept of opensource training and. orchestration. is a hugely disruptive idea which is the. complete orthogonal attack vector to. this idea that you have to raise tens. and tens of billions of dollars to train. your models because if the capital. markets run out of 10 and 20 billion. dollar checks to give people the only.

solution is to be totally distributed. I. tend to agree with you Jason that there. is going to be at some point a very. successful open source project for. pre-training. Absolutely. Will there never ever be an. open- source way where a real company. that has any skin in the game says here. guys re-engineer my codebase as an open. source project. Never going to happen. >> Yeah, I I think the coding tools will. And if you look at the history of open. source, Brad, you actually I think had a. lot of bets in this space. Linux,

Kubernetes, Apache, Postgress, like. Terraform, like these open source. projects are deep inside of enterprises. Deep. And we're sitting here 15, 20. years ago, the same argument was made. Nobody will ever adopt these inside the. enterprise. You got to go with Oracle, whatever. And fair enough, many people. do. But I think this is this $29 ridges. um subscription to do this versus 200. It's starting to take hold inside of. startups. And that's where I always look. at the tip of the spear. Startups love.

to, you know, use open source products. I think this could be the next big. thing. But listen, I I I invest in. things that have a 90% chance of going. to zero. So do your own research. No. crying in the casino. >> Can I just make a a final few points? So. just just quickly so number one is with. respect to this market for code or code. tokens whatever you want to call it. >> it might be 5% today meaning 5% of the. codes AI generated versus human. generated I think it's going to 95% I.

mean I bet any amount of money on that. the only question is when probably over. the next few years so that's point. number one point number two is it's. possible that if you're the early leader. in coding as a AI model company let's. say you have 50 to 60% of market share. You have the most developers using it. Therefore, you have the most access to. code bases. You might get the most. training tokens. There is a potential. flywheel there where you can see the. early market leader consolidating its.

lead because it's generating the most. code tokens and it's getting access to. the most existing code. Now, I'm not. saying for sure that's going to happen. is possible that the other guys catch. up, but I think there is a possibility. of a flywheel there and strong, I guess. you'd call it data scale effects, things. like that. So, I do believe that the. market for coding tokens could be. monopolized. Third, Anthropic's revenue. run rate, as based on what I can tell. and what's been publicly released, is. the fastest growing revenue run rate at.

scale that I think we've ever seen. Uh, we. >> perfect segue. It's the next story. Okay, maybe. >> pull up the the tweets. But this thing. is ramping at a rate we've never seen. before. >> We can get into that in a second. But. just one last final point. >> is I think it's pretty clear that where. we go from here is agents and coding. gives you a huge step up on agents. because you know one of the main things. that agents need to do is is write code. to be able to enable them to complete. tasks.

>> Correct. And so if it is the case that. coding is this huge market that's going. to be dominated by one or two companies. and then that leads to another huge. market which is agents. My point is just. I think all these companies need to. behave in a very clean way. >> and not engage in tactics that later the. government might say you know what that. was anti-competitive. Everyone should. just I think play fair. Do not engage in. discrimination against other people's. products. engage in fair pricing. I'm.

not accusing anyone of breaking any of. the rules, but what I'm saying is that. eventually the government's going to. look at this market with the benefit of. 2020 hindsight and I think everyone. should just basically, you know, keep it. >> keep your nose clean. >> Keep it tight. Keep it tight. >> Keep it tight. Tight is right. I think. is an excellent point. Let's talk about. the revenue ramp of Anthropic. This is. just unprecedented. Anthropic's revenue. run rate has topped 30 billion with a B.

Early 2023, they turned on revenue. They. started charging for API access. End of. 2024, they're at a billion dollar run. rate. February 25, they launched Claw. Code. That was the starter pistol. Mid. 2025, $4 billion run rate. End of 2025, $9 billion run rate. Just a couple of. months later in April, $30 billion run. rate. Yes, that's right. Triple. Uh and. the way they did this is enterprise uh. customers are a major part of the spend.

Dario announced a couple of months ago. that there's over a thousand enterprises. paying over 1 million annually. This is. truly mindboggling when you think about. it because those are the most coveted. customers in the world. These are the. big fish that you just uh when people. are running enterprise software, they. they dream Slack dreamed of getting. these million-dollar customers. Uh. Salesforce dreams of getting these. million-dollar customers. Brad, you're. an investor. I guess uh Sam famously on. BG2 asked you to sell your uh OpenAI.

stock back to him. You didn't. You. demired, but you're an investor in both. How shocking is it to you to place both. of those bets and then see one of them. come from so far behind? You know, Chat. GPT has 900 million users. I don't know. if they've they've passed a billion. officially yet, but they are the Verb, right? They're the Uber. They're the. Xerox. They're the Polaroid of AI, but. they didn't go after the enterprise. Daario made that and Daario worked. He.

was the co-founder of OpenAI. He left. and according to the New Yorker story. that came out from Ronan Farrell this. week, he was basically left because of. his disgust in working with Sam Alman. Your thoughts? >> Well, you know, before we go down the. OpenAI rabbit hole, let's just really. contextualize like what's going on here. You know, check I I I have this. additional chart. you showed one, you. know, they added 4 billion of revenue in. January, 7 billion in February, 11. billion of annualized run rates, um, or.

10 or 11 billion in March, just to put. in perspective, that's data bricks plus. Palanteer combined that they added in a. single month, right? So we started with. everybody at the start of the year. ringing their hands including you know. Gurley and others saying we're in a big. bubble asking whether the AI revenues. would show up to justify all of this. investment and bam you have the largest. revenue explosion in the history of. technology. So the company's plans were. to end the year at about a $30 billion.

ex exit run rate. They got there by the. end of March right and I suspect that. it's continuing in April. So you have to. ask what's going on and what's the big. so what the first thing for me is that. model and product capability just hit. this threshold we talked about earlier. near AGI whatever the hell you want to. call it and everybody like alimter said. damn this is so good I have to have it. this is no longer about my IT budget. this is about labor augmentation and. labor replacement and by the way co-work.

is growing even faster than Claude go at. the same stage of development. So what it showed is we have a near. infinite TAM. It turns out that the TAM. for intelligence is radically different. than anything that we've seen before. And I think the best example of this, right? This is millions of. self-interested parties, consumers, enterprises, a thousand now over a. million dollars. Right? It's not that. there was some great go to market and.

anthropic that all of a sudden, you. know, they snuck up and blew everybody. away. No, it was companies demanding the. product. They're getting throttled on. the product. Why? Because it's so good. It makes them better at their business. We are all self-interested actors. And. when millions of those people are all. making the same decision, there's a huge. tell. And the tell here is that the TAM. is as big as Daario and Sam and others. have been saying. We knew intelligence. was going to scale on the exponential. The question was whether revenue will.

scale on the exponential, and that's. what we're seeing. And remember, they're. doing this with only 1 1/2 to 2 gawatt. of compute, right? These guys are. massively compute constrained. They're. each going to be adding 3 GW of compute. this year. And so that will unlock they. would be growing even faster. But for. that, and then Jason, to your point. about the open source models that we all. want to be a part of this solution, I've. talked to a lot of big companies, 65 to. 70% of their token consumption is.

open-source model, right? are these. cheap Chinese and other tokens. So these. revenue ramps are happening while the. world is already using open source. This. is not frontier only. This is Frontier. plus open source. We're going to see. massive token optimization over the. course of the year. But what happens on. this Jebans paradox is the co the unit. costs right of intelligence is. plummeting. Not the cost of tokens. The. unit cost of intelligence is plummeting. because the capabilities of these models.

is so much better. I look at what it. does for Altimeter day in and day out. I. talked to a major uh company yesterday. They're on a run rate to do a hundred. million of token consumption this year. on about $5 billion in opex. They think. that we're now nearing peak employment. in their company, but that their token. their intelligence consumption, okay, let's not call it token consumption, right? because tokens may go up a lot, but their intelligence consumption is. going to go up, you know, a lot. So, I. would leave you with this. We're early.

to Chimas's point. We have low. penetration of the global 2000. We have. low penetration of the use cases. We. have low penetration of of within the. use cases that they're already using. And the models are only getting better. So I think when you look out toward the. end of the year, I would not be shocked. if you see Anthropic exiting this year. at 80 to 100 billion in revenue. And by. the way, doing it at the same time that. OpenAI, who is also on the wave, they'll.

be releasing an incredible model in the. next imminently. They're going to be on. that wave and you're going to see an. inflection in their revenues as well. >> Okay, Chimath, question one has been. answered. The question of hey, does this. stuff actually have utility? that went. from a question mark to an exclamation. point. Of course, it's got utility. People are getting value from it. And it. might be variable. Some people get more. value than others. Number two, the. revenue ramp was a big question. Now, that's turned into an exclamation point. The final piece of the puzzle that. you've brought up many times is can this. be profitable? And these companies are.

burning through a large amount of cash. So, what is your take on when these. companies can get out of the J curve? We. talked about this, I think, three. episodes ago. I estimated like we're. going to be looking at $4500 billion in. investment into these data centers at a. minimum and then they have to climb out. of that to get to profitability. So what. are your thoughts on these becoming. profitable companies? Do you remember. the. investor that published this list Jason.

where he put all of the terms you talk. about when one of the terms you can't. talk about is profit. It's a list where. it's like if you can't talk about free. cash flow, you talk about IBIDA. When. you can't talk about IBIDA, you talk. about. >> margina. When you can't talk about that, you talk. about revenue. And then when you can't. talk about revenue, you talk about gross. revenue. >> bookings. >> So you can kind of figure out, I think, where we are in any part of any.

cycle by just indexing into what does. everybody talk about. I think where we. are is we are between gross revenue and. net revenue. That's where the discussion. is. >> Okay. >> There was another article I think today. in I think maybe it was the information. that tried to categorize and distinguish. that anthropic presents gross, open AI. presents net. They're different. We. don't know what the various take rates. are. So they're saying that there's a.

difference. If it's not true, there's. been no clarity provided by these. companies. So, at a minimum, you have. this confusion where there's the. breathless talk. Then there's people. that don't even know the difference. between actual recognized revenue and. run rate revenue and how to multi. I. mean, so we're definitely there, okay? We can quibble about the details, but we. are not at the place where people are. like, "Oh, here's your steadystate, you. know, free cash flow margin, and here's. what your EBA does." We're never we're. we're years from that. They're gonna. have token maxing IBA like IB at the.

Wii. >> The thing that we need to understand is. how gross margin negative is this. revenue growth. >> We don't know that and at least we don't. as outsiders. >> Brad might know. >> Brad may know. I I I I will tell you. think about this. What are their big. cost inputs? The number one cost input. is the cost of compute. Cost of compute. >> Right? I just told you they only have a. gigawatt and a half of compute. and they. have that gigawatt and a half of compute. whether they have a billion in revenue. or whether they have 80 billion in.

revenue. So you might actually expect to. see these companies their gross margins. are exploding higher like the fastest. increase in gross margins I've probably. seen out of any technology company. So. this is not gross margin negative you're. saying? >> No definitely not gross margin negative. And what I would tell you. >> so that they must be hugely profitable. then. >> well you may see accidental why I call. it accidental profitability. They may. not be able to spend this revenue fast. enough chamath on compute. And remember. it's only 2500 people. Google crossed.

this revenue threshold when they had. 120,000 people. These guys have 2500. people. So the only thing you can really. spend money on, right, is compute. And. they can't stand up the compute fast. enough. >> But none of this foots to me then to be. honest because if you were on a. threshold of 90% plus gross margin, >> I'm not saying it's there. I'm not. saying it's 90% plus. I'm just saying. it's gone from meaningfully negative 18. months ago to, you know, very very. positive. I've seen rumored out there.

50% is what you're saying. The trend is. there. >> Let me just say this. I think if you're an incumbent, you want. the cost of compute to go down. I think. if you're not an incumbent, so. specifically, who do I mean? Meta, Google, and SpaceX. I think those three people who have all. three of them, well, sorry, Meta and. Google have a fortress balance sheet. I. think by the end of June, SpaceX will. also have a fortress balance sheet. What.

they will want to do is they will want. to make this a compute problem because. they will control the the conditions on. the field. You already see this today. >> Yeah. >> Meta's models today, what people's. general reviews are it's okay, but the. one thing that people say is it's. incredibly performant. The model quality. is okay, but the performance is great, which speaks to Meta's huge advantage. They have a massive compute. infrastructure. So if you're if you're. not open AI and anthropic, they'll want to make this a capital. problem because then they can win it. If.

you're anthropic and open AI, you want. this thing to be as efficient as. possible. I think where we are is very much in the. early innings. And we're bumbling around. talking about gross margins and you know. revenues. We are not at profitability. And what is true for Facebook and what. was true for Google was irrespective of. where they got to a billion. Who g. cares? They were profitable by year. three and they never looked back. I was. there. I remember it was glorious. >> The the cost the cost of building uh you.

know AI. totally stipulate is radically higher. than the cost of building retrieval at. Google, right? Like it's just a. fundamentally more expensive problem. But I will tell you that there's a lot. of FUD out there about negative gross. margins. I mean Jason, you started the. segment by saying they're burning. through large amounts of cash. I think. people are going to be shocked at the. burn how low the burn levels are at. these companies. >> Anthropic or Open AI. >> Yes. And and I would say at Open AI as. well like they're if they're on you know.

if they do $50 billion this year again. just look at the number of people they. have revenue per people. It's pretty low. and the inference cost is plummeting. Inference cost is down by 90%. year-over-year. And so just finally I. want to make respond to this point about. gross versus net uh this this tweet that. Chimath was referencing. Okay, so. there's a certain percentage, a. smallalish percentage of Anthropics. revenue, right, that they distribute. through the hyperscalers and like a lot. of arrangements, whether it's Snowflake. or Data Bricks or others, you pay a.

commission, right, uh on on that. I will. just tell you that you're talking. singledigit percentage of total revenue. of these companies. So the gross versus. net thing isn't what's being reported. like the apples for apples is pretty. easy and if you want to be conservative. on it take down Anthropic's revenue by. you know five to 10% which you know. again I don't I think it's better to. gross up OpenAI's revenue but any way. you do it I just think it's a. distraction from what's really what's. really going on here happy to. >> s you have any thoughts on this uh. massive revenue ramp.

>> yeah I mean I want to go back to a point. that Brad made because I think it was. just really important and I want to just. underline it consider where we were at. the beginning of the year and What. everybody was saying is that AI was a. big bubble and the evidence they would. point to was the fact that hundreds of. billions of dollars was going into capex. that needed to be spent on these data. centers and there was no evidence of. significant revenue to justify that. spend. Where was the ROI? By the way, as.

an aside, the same doomers who were. saying that AI was in a bubble were also. the ones who were saying that AI was so. powerful it's going to put us all out of. work and it's going to, you know, take. over from humanity. I mean, in other. words, they couldn't decide if AI was. too powerful or not powerful enough. But. putting aside that contradiction, they. clearly were making this case that AI. was this big bubble and that there'd be. no payoff or justification for this. massive capex that's being spent. And I. think we're starting to see here there.

is justification for it. Uh we're seeing. it just in this one vertical of AI which. is coding. We're again seeing the. fastest revenue growth in history. It's. utterly unprecedented. And this is just. one category or vertical of AI. We know. that agents are coming next and the. enterprise adoption of that is going to. be absolutely massive. So, I guess what. I'm saying is that this is early proof. for I think the thing that makes Silicon.

Valley special, which is we're willing. to basically bet on things that just. intuitively on a gut level we know are. the next big thing. We're not that. spreadsheet driven. Actually, Silicon. Valley believes that if you build it, they will come and is willing to finance. that build out. And that's basically. what's been happening. Again, just the. top four hyperscalers, $350 billion of. expected capex this year on its way, I. think Jensen said 1 trillion by 2030. So, Silicon Valley, whether it's big. companies, whether it's founders,

they're always willing to bet on this. next big thing. They're not like Wall. Street. They don't need, you know, specialist to tell them where to go. They know where the technology is going. and they make their bets based on that. And I think that there is going to be a. big payoff for this. And I think it's. the thing that's going to make our. economy and the United States in general. remain extremely dynamic and in the lead. on this thing is that we are willing to. make those kinds of bets. And I think. it's going to pay off big time. >> Yeah, clearly. Hey, um Brad, you didn't.

answer my question about the vibes over. at OpenAI versus Quad. Open AI is um I. wouldn't say reeling but there's a lot. of hand ringing going on a lot of. employees leaving a lot of people who. are wondering like is our strategy the. winning strategy of like consumer first. they shut down Sora you know unwinding. the Disney deal and really trying to get. the company focused and it's kind of. like I mean listen the New Yorker story. was a bit of a rehash so I don't think.

we have to go into the blowby-blow. because we covered here three years ago. but the truth is a lot of the great. founders, co-founders of OpenAI and a. lot of the great contributors are now at. Anthropic and other large language. models. And in the secondary market, OpenAI is trading lower than the last. valuation. And Anthropic is trading. significantly above the $380 billion. So. maybe talk a little bit about this. competition, this Microsoft versus.

Apple, this Google versus Facebook. Well, let's let's start with immense. credit where credit is due. Anthropic. was literally counted out of the game. last year. Y, >> right? And here they come over the last. 12 months and and and they've kicked. OpenAI's ass over the last 90 days, right? And what did Anthropic do? Anthropic made choices. No multimodal, no video, no hardware, no chips, no. building data centers. They said, "We're. just going to focus on coding and. co-work. We think that is the path to. AGI and and and and ASI." They executed.

their butts off. They took the lead. 2500 people tight pulling on the ore in. the same direction. But I think you. would be seriously foolish to count out. open AI, right? And I think we're we're. we're at peak open AI FUD. And I'll tell. you, it starts with great researchers. and great models. And I think when you. see the Spud model, they're about ready. to release. I think it's going to be an. excellent model. Shows that they're. firmly on the wave. Um, if you look at.

what's going on with Codeex, incredible. ramp on Codeex, fastest ramping model. with 5.4, I think 5.5 or Spud, whatever. we're going to call, it's going to be an. even faster ramp. >> Have you seen Spud? Have you used it? Have you gotten a preview? >> People are using Spud, right? So, it it. is being previewed and so. >> So, you're talking to people who've used. it and what are they telling you? >> They're telling us that it's an. incredible model on par with Mythos, right? and that it's a a very usable. model in terms of um how it's packaged.

I will say that back to David's point. now this is the most important point I. think anybody can take away here. This is not zero sum. The TAM of. intelligence is dramatically larger than. any TAM we've ever seen in our investing. careers over the last two decades. Right? And if you're on the wave, which. Open AAI is, you are going to be selling. into the world's biggest TAM, they are. going to build a very big company. I'm a. buyer of the shares today. Notwithstanding all of the vibes that.

you describe, I think these companies. are firmly on the wave. They are jarred. They are sitting there saying, "What did. we do wrong? And how do we get our mojo. back?" They want to compete. It is. embarrassing to people on the research. team and the product team over there. So, I'm not saying there's not a real. awakening occurring there, but I think. that's what the case is. And by the way, to Chamas's point, do not count out. Meta, right? I think Meta is absolutely. in this game. Google is absolutely in. this game. Elon is absolutely in this.

game. And if you're. >> got some stuff dropping shortly that's. going to be very impressive. >> If you're on team America, the fact that. we have five frontier models competing. against each other and David made sure. they weren't throttled by excessive. government regulation. We have mythos. come out. It's a self-imposed safe. harbor, you know, to harden our system. It wasn't a call for moratoriums or. getting the government involved. We have. the type of competition that's causing. us to accelerate our lead against the. rest of the world. We can't take our eye.

off the prize. We got to stop. adversarial distillation and we need to. make sure that we're distributing our. products around the world. But I view. this as really good for team America. >> Well said. And here is your poly market. IPOs before 2027. Obviously SpaceX at. 95% uh Cerebrus at 94% and uh hey number. five on this list 51% chance that. Anthropic goes out before the end of the. year. 44% chance that OpenAI comes out. before then. All right here is the.

closing market cap for Anthropic on Poly. Market only $158,000 in volume. So, Chimath, when you put in 400K, you're. going to really tilt this market. 78% chance that it's above 600 billion, 19% chance that it doesn't go out. So, it's looking like this will be a decent. investment for you. Brad, what valuation. did you get into Anthropic at? >> We first invested in I believe it was. the.

uh 30 or $150 billion round. >> So, this will be a 7x 5x for Altimeter. L, please. Congratulations. I mean, no, listen. I I I again, there are lots of. people who were there before us and who. are on the board and who are going to do. much better than that. What' you put in? 50. >> What' you put in? >> No, we've got billions in both. companies. Uh. >> billions in both companies. Oh my lord. >> I think there's this existential thing. going on in venture today. David could. talk about it as well. I mean people.

can't they're extraordinarily nervous. about you look at the IGV stock index. down 30% year to date down 5% today all. software stocks plummeting right venture. capitalists are terrified to invest. money in anything other than these. frontier models and things like SpaceX. or military modernization finding. something that's out of harm's way of AI. right where you can count on the. terminal value to Chamas insights over.

the last few weeks is very difficult to. do. That's why you see this crowding. So, we've taken a barbell approach, right? We've got a lot in what we think. are the most important companies that. are on the frontier and then we're. betting with on really small teams that. we think have very defensible businesses. in a world of uh you know, AGI. But it's. >> what happens to all these enterprise. software companies? Do they become PE. takeouts? Do they get consolidated? um. or do they just have to adopt these AI. technologies and and and solve this.

problem of hey the frontier model is. just going to solve for whatever these. niche software companies do. >> I think the market's probably being a. little too pessimistic with respect to. at least some of these software. companies. I mean, obviously, there's. going to be big differences in the. quality of the modes of these companies. And so, look, software is going to be a. lot cheaper and easier to generate, but. I'm not sure that was the competitive. advantage of a lot of these companies. So, there's probably a little bit of the. baby being thrown out with the bathwater.

right now, and there probably are some. value buys in enterprise software. I. think the interesting question here and. we've been talking about this for a. couple of years in the pod is just where. you see the AI value capture being in. terms of layer of the stack. Remember. where we started it was really just the. chip layer of the stack was where all. the value capture was. It was basically. Nvidia was the first company to be worth. multiple trillions of dollars because of. AI. And for a while it looked like. that's where all the value capture was.

going to be because OpenAI for example. was losing so much money and Anthropic. wasn't on the radar as much. Now we're. seeing wait a second um you know it's. not just the chip companies it's also. the hyperscalers are now benefiting and. now we're seeing at the model layer it. looks like Enthropic and Open AI they're. all going to be huge beneficiaries. I. think the next question is at the. application layer of the stack. Okay. Well, now does all that value capture. just get eaten by the model companies or. are there applications that get. turbocharged? I guess you could say that.

Palunteer is already one of them, right? It's an application company that's been. turbocharged by these model. capabilities. Who else will be a big. beneficiary? Is it again, is it all. going to be at the model layer or will. you see an explosion of value at the. application layer? I'm hoping obviously. that it'll be at all layers of the. stack. PC beneficiaries. But to me, that's a really interesting question. right now. >> Yeah. What happens to Salesforce, HubSpot, you know, Oracle, right down. the line? David, uh, Chimati, your. thoughts here, uh, on the the layers.

here and where the value is captured. >> It's too early to tell. >> Too early to tell, right? And energy we. kind of put into sort of data center as. well, but that's obviously been a clear. winner. Little housekeeping here. Liquidity, put a little Tiffany in here. uh producer Nick D is sold out. There's. a wait list of hundreds of people, but. it is what it is, folks. If you snooze, you lose and top tier speakers are. coming. Uh it's going to be great. We'll. get a an update from But I think Brad,

you're going to be joining us again. Yes. For liquidity. >> I have an update. >> That's probably not your headliner, though. I'm probably not your headliner. >> No, but you always score so high. Every. event you've spoken at, you've been. either number one, two, I don't think. you've ever dropped to three. Go ahead, Sham. Make your announcement here. >> Nat sent me an article from Wikipedia. about penile links when you guys are. talking about. >> breaking news. >> Showing me showing me that I'm in the. large category. Top 5%. She highlighted. it. >> Top 5%. Okay. And that's with Is that.

with Nano Banana or without? Is that. >> She just texted dummy. It's clogged. My. apologies. Clogged. >> Oh. >> All right. This is why Jamath isn't. afraid of the cyber is because nothing's. going to come out that's more. embarrassing than what he says himself. on the box. >> He's like Bezos. When Bezos got hacked, HE'S LIKE, "GUYS, I GOT HACKED.". >> SO, I saw the agenda for this thing. It's incredible. Congrats to you guys. I. mean, like the uh like just the fun of. being in Napa, all the poker, all the. the dining experience. This is five star.

all the It looks really. >> six-star. It's a man level because. Chimath. >> was, I dare I say, belligerent in his. demands. He said, "This has to be. six-star or I will not show up." Jake. Al. I said, "Okay, boss, get to work.". And uh, Chimath, what do you got any? No. mids. This is all elite. And for the. hundreds of people who are on the wait. list, I am sorry, but we have a capacity. issue. We'll try to get you in for next. year. But Chim, give us some updates. here. You have any updates that you want. to share? because you are running. programming for liquidity 2026 up in.

Yon. >> Look, it's going really well. Really excited to hear all of these. great folks speak. I think the next two. will release today. Brad Gersonner and. Thomas Leaf of COTU. >> of CO2. That's a great get. >> We also have I think three people. confirmed for their best ideas pitch. Really interesting folks. They each run. between one and six or seven billion. >> awesome. >> superstar compounders early in their. career. >> This is a new zone chamat.

>> It's great. So right now we have Bill. Aman, we have Andre Carpathy, we have. Dan Loe, we have Thomas Lefont, we have. Brad Gersner, we have Sarah Frier and. more to come. We will announce more. >> There might be one or two surprises. Jay. Cal. >> and a couple and a couple of surprises. >> Yeah, we we don't announce all the. speakers. Jay Cal's got a couple of. surprises coming. And if you didn't get. in to liquidity, apologies. You're on. the wait list. We are going to be. hosting the fifth.

annual all-in summit in Los Angeles. September 13th to the 15th of Sax. You. going to come to that? >> Allin.com/events. >> Sax, you should come to that. >> I've been advised that I can attend. business. I can be in the state for. business reasons. >> Okay, there you go. Then we'll see you. at liquidity and the summit. Correct. That's that's big news. Now we just got. a bunch of Sachs stands who are racing. Uh and now we're going to get Sachs at. This is what happens every year behind. the scenes. >> Sachs at the last minute says, "Oh, I.

have four speakers and I have 72 people. who need tickets and then the whole team. has to like do a fire drill 48 hours. before the event." Okay, here we go, guys. We're going to go to the third. rail here. We got to catch up on the. Iran war. Here's the latest. Two weeks. into a ceasefire have started just two. days ago at the taping of this VP JD. Vance, friend of the pod is a and some. special consultants Wikoff and friend of. the pod Jared Kushner are headed to. Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan for.

talks this very weekend. So while you're. listening to this event, they are going. to be working on the peace deal. Easter. Sunday, Trump posted a truth stating, "Open the straight, you crazy. bastards, or you're going to be living. in hell. Just watch." Praise be to. Allah. On Tuesday morning, Trump posted. uh a another threat on social media. A. whole civilization will die tonight. Never to be brought back again. I don't. want that to happen, but it probably. will. Tweets were obviously discussed uh. a lot over the last week. He gave him an.

8:00 p.m. deadline. At 6:30 p.m. POTUS announced on Truth. Social that he had agreed. President. Trump had agreed to a two-week ceasefire. if Iran opens the straight. He also. said, "Hey, listen. We got the straight. Maybe there'll be a toll booth, but. we'll take the majority of the toll and. we'll split it with Iran." Here's the. quote. We received a 10-point proposal. from Iran, and we believe it's a. workable it is a workable basis on which. to negotiate. And apparently Netanyahu.

took the ceasefire to mean level Lebanon. dropping 160 bombs in 10 minutes. yesterday. Saxs, uh, you were out last. week. Everybody wants to know your. position on the war. I'll hand it off to. you. What are your thoughts on how on. the two ceasefire and everything that's. occurred up until this point? >> Well, look, I have to preface what I'm. about to say, which is I'm not part of. the foreign policy team at the White. House. And the last time I commented on. the war on this show, it somehow made. international headlines that Trump.

advisor says XYZ. And I'm not a Trump adviser on this. issue. I think that'd be a fair headline. to write if it was a technology issue, but this is not. So whatever I say is. just my personal opinion, but then the. media is going to somehow portray it or. attribute it. >> to the White House or try and create an. issue out of it. So, I feel like I'm. limited in what I can say except that to. say that I think it's terrific that we. have the ceasefire. I think it's great.

that there's going to be this meeting in. Islamabad to hammer it out. And I think. what the president's accomplished so far. with the ceasefire is it's a great thing. because what happens with these wars is. they take on a life of their own, meaning they tend to go up the. escalation ladder, right? And there's a. lot of podcasts that are discussing the. so-called escalation trap and supposedly. there are stages to this based on. historical patterns. And so I think it's. actually very hard to pull out of these. things and I give the president. tremendous credit for negotiating the.

ceasefire that we've achieved so far and. then sending the team to hopefully work. this out. >> Brad, actually my first trip to the. Middle East was when you and I uh maybe. four years ago when Thank you for taking. me. What is your take on where we're at. here? I think we're just wrapped up week. six of this and we're going into week. seven. >> First, on March 4th, I tweeted the Trump. doctrine in Iran. Massively destroy all. military capa capabilities. Kill the. people building lethal weapons to use. against us and get out. Reserve the. right to do it again if needed. Zero.

efforts to build Misonian democracy. Iran's going to have to build what comes. next. And I think what the market has. said right if you look back at last year. on tariffs Jason the top tobottom draw. down was about 15% on the NASDAQ. intraday is down 22%. Okay, the draw down in this period over. Iran was only down about 5 to 7% on S&P. and NASDAQ, right? So, the market has. said, listen, re trust Trump at his.

words. He said he's not going to get. into an entangled war here. I think he. terrifies the hell out of people with. his tweets about, you know, destroying. civilization and all this other stuff. But I think people, even though they. don't like to hear it, they've resolved. for themselves that when he says he's. going to get out, he will in fact get. out. Of course, there was a lot of hand. ringing, but if you look at the markets. today, we basically bounced all the way. back from where we were pre-Iran on both. the S&P and the NASDAQ. If in fact we. land the plane, if JD lands the plane,

and by the way, on Lebanon, yes, they. were bombing yesterday, but Netanyahu. has now said that you're going to have. direct government talks between Israel. and Lebanon. So, if the if we land the. plane on these two things, I think it's. off to the races in the market. By the. way, while everybody's focused on Iran, stay tuned. I think we're getting close. to a deal on Ukraine, Russia, right? Venezuela is, you know, kind of going. seemingly very well. I think there's. also going to be news on Cuba. You could. envision a world there's risk to the. downside. Certainly, I will stipulate,

but you also have to pay attention to. the risk to the upside. If you land the. plane on those things heading into. America 250 July 4th, the market could. really take off. >> All right. Well, let's uh maybe uplevel. this a little bit and talk about why. we're in this war to begin with. And. that's the big discussion amongst both. sides of the aisle. On Tuesday, the New. York Times dropped an inside the room. piece on how President Trump made the. decision. according to this report, if it's true.

I know some people don't uh subscribe to. the New York Times anymore or think it's. fake news, but how Trump decided to. basically follow Netanyahu into this. war. On February 11th, Netanyahu met. with Trump at the White House where he. gave him a four-part pitch on attacking. Iran. JD Vance, according to the story, if it's true, disclaimer, disclaimer, warned Trump that the war could cause. regional chaos and break apart Trump's. MAGA 2.0, the Trump 2.0 coalition we. talked about here, the big tent. And. that's turned out actually to be true. There's been a bunch of hand ringing.

from Megan, Kelly, Tucker, Carlson, right on down the line. Rubio was. anti-regime change, but he was largely. ambivalent, according to this story. about the bombing campaign. Susie Wilds, chief of staff, said she had concerns. about gas prices before the midterms. Pretty good uh advice there. And General. Dan Kaine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs. of Staff, said this of Netanyahu's. pitch. Quote, "Sir, this is, in my. experience, standard operating procedure. for the Israelis. They oversell and. their plans are not always.

well-developed. They know they need us. and that's why they're hard selling. If. you put this together with Rubio's. walked back comments at the start of the. war, we knew, this is quote from Rubio, we knew there was going to be an Israeli. action. We knew that would precipitate. an attack against American forces and. that's why we did it. I had Josh Shapiro. on the All-In interview show and um uh. he talked a lot about this. There is a. big underpinning here, Chimath, that the.

United States foreign policy is being. driven by Netanyahu. Every Jewish. American person I've talked to feels. Netanyahu is not doing Jewish American. and Jewish the Jewish diaspora any. favors here by his approach to these. wars. What are your thoughts on why we. got into this and how we get out of it? >> I mean, the person that decides is the. president of the United States. some. foreign leader isn't. getting to call the shots in the United.

States. I think very practically. speaking, the markets are effectively. pricing in that this was a small blip. for whatever people think. That's just. what the best prediction market that we. have is telling us. I think that's. important to acknowledge that we're. probably in the endgame here. And the. second thing to acknowledge is if I was. Israel, I would really be concerned. that unless I help find an offramp.

quickly, the risk that Israel loses. America as a predictably steadfast ally. could go down. And I think that that's. problematic for Israel. >> far more than is problematic for the. United States. >> So all of that kind of tells me that we. will find an offramp. A because I think. economically it makes sense and then B. geopolitically I think Israel will want. to make sure that this doesn't burn. a long-standing relationship. >> Yeah, that that seems to me to be the.

major issue here is Americans basically. do not want to be in this war. Americans. do not want a forest policy being. influenced to the extent they believe. I'm not putting my belief in here. Americans believe we are being dragged. into this by Israel and that Israel has. too much or Netanyahu specifically has. far too much influence. And then people. believe the anti-semitism that's. occurring here. Josh Shapiro gave me a. lot of push back on this. Uh but all the. Jewish Americans I talked to say. Netanyahu is causing with his actions in.

Gaza, Lebanon, Iran. Uh he's gone too. far and it's causing the anti-semitism. we're experiencing uh today. So you can. make your own decisions about that. Any. final thoughts here, Brad, on. the American foreign policy being. influenced too much by Israel? >> No, it's the discussion. I. >> I mean, listen, um kind of like Sax said. earlier, um I think that we will. ultimately be judged by the outcomes,

right? And that everybody is an armchair. pundit today on, you know, uh the the. the approach that we're taking in these. two different places. I think we could. be on the verge of a massive. transformation of the Gulf States. You. went there with me, Jason. Saudi, Qataris, Kuwaitis, Emiratis. I've talked. to a lot of them this week. I think. they're very hopeful and optimistic. I. think you could bring Iran into the. fold. But listen, I'm an optimist on all. of this stuff. I I just want to remind.

people, doing nothing in Iran had. tremendous risks. Doing nothing in. Venezuela had tremendous risks. So, it's. not as though this was uh, you know, something that I I I I think wasn't well. calculated, but I think we have to let. the cards be played and and and then let. history be the judge. But I think. there's uh a risk in both directions, but I'm going to remain optimistic. >> All right. You uh said in the Gaza. situation, we should have a wide birth.

for criticism of Israel and Netanyahu. What are your thoughts on this belief. here in the United States now in this. discussion that Israel is having far too. much influence over the United States. foreign policy? Well, I noticed in my feed today that. Naftali Bennett, who's a major Israeli. politician who was a former prime. minister, tweeted polling that showed. that Israel was becoming very unpopular. in the US and he was expressing concern. about that and expressing.

the need to to basically address that or. fix that. So, I think you're starting to. see Israeli politicians raising that as. an issue. And I think that's probably a. good thing. Yeah, there it is. And it's. really cool actually how X now just. automatically translates things from. foreign languages, in this case, Hebrew, and it puts it in your feed. So, yeah. So, here's Naftali Bennett, former prime. minister, saying, "This is a serious. situation. There's a lot of work ahead. of us to fix everything." Now, obviously, this is not Netanyahu. this.

is one of his um political opponents. But. yeah, I mean this is something for. Israel to consider and think about and I. think that they would improve their. popularity uh if they got behind the. ceasefire and I have no indication that. they won't but that would certainly be a. good place to start. I have to say just. as an aside, this auto translate feature. has done more for understanding across. borders than anything I've ever seen. And it is the most impressive tech.

feature I I've seen released in years. Putting AI and large language models. aside for people who don't know what's. happening because of Grock being really. good at doing auto translate. They've. taken the pockets of the best of what's. happening in Japan, what's happening in. Israel, what's happening in France, and. they're surfacing it auto translated. Then when you reply as an American to. somebody in Japan, they see it autorated. as well, which has led to people who. don't speak the same language engaging.

on X in a very nuanced, fun, interesting. way. And that for as a truth mechanism. is just absolutely extraordinary. I. think this is going to have such a. profound effect. Maybe Elon and the X. team should get like a Nobel Peace Prize. award for this. I think it's going to. change. I mean, I hate to be hyperbolic, but have you been using this feature, Chamat? Has it been coming up in your. feed? And which language is up in your. feed right now? >> English. Okay. So, you're not part of.

the translation thing. Brad, has this. hit your feed yet? And and which regions. are you? >> Definitely. Definitely see it in on the. Middle East stuff. Um, and uh, you know, I've seen on Chinese, I've seen it on on. the Russian Japanese. >> super helpful. >> Let me tell you, bass Japanese is a. whole another level of beast. >> Whoa. Man, base Japanese makes like. Fentes and Alex Jones seem tame. They're. like, look at this group of people. Insert whatever group of immigrants you. like. And they're like, this is.

unacceptable behavior. This is not. Japanese culture. These people need to. be get the hell out of Japan. It is. wild, folks. And if you don't have an X. account, you are missing out. Go to. X.com and sign up for this reason only. because you think about the velocity. Like journalists are not even taking the. time to translate and cover what's going. on in those areas. And this is happening. automatically in real time. >> So you start thinking about what. happened in Ukraine. If you had people. Russia and Ukraine doing this and having.

conversations with each other, it would. be wild. >> You're like a such a good hype man. The. problem is you hype buttered bread the. same way you hype a nuclear reactor. And. so it's hard to really tell, you know, what you're really hyping because your. level of excitement, the intonation is. exactly the same. >> Yo, man, there's nothing better than a. slice of great toast. I mean, if this is. very this in in a way, it is like sliced. bread. It's very simple, but it is so. powerful in the experience. >> This has been. >> It is true. X is better today than it's. ever been. And remember, they have 70%.

fewer employees than they had the day. Elon walked into the building. And so if. there were ever a debate. >> about this, like, and I remember. everybody saying, "Oh, it's going to tip. over. Oh, it's going to be a crappy. experience.". >> The fact of the matter, here's we are a. few years later, 70% fewer employees, and every other company in Silicon. Valley is looking at that. I think for a. lot of these tech companies, we've hit. peak employment. We're going to create a. tremendous number of new jobs, but for. the existing jobs, these companies are.

all realizing they can do more with. less. >> Nikita Beer just tweeted that they're. about to go ham on these bot accounts. that auto reply. >> Yes. >> Those those literally ruined my feed. >> That's why I went to subscriber mode in. my replies and it's it's worked out. great. >> Yeah. No, shout out to him and um to. Chris Saka who was in tears at what. happened to Twitter. You. >> It's gonna be okay, Chris. Sorry. No. more tears. You only let subscribers respond to your. tweets. I. >> I do 50/50. Sometimes I'll just let it. rip and get chaos. And then other times.

I have 2,000 paid subscribers. I give. all the money to charity, like 30 grand. a year. And it's just wonderful to get. to know the same 2,000 people out of my. million followers. It's kind of like. having this little subset. So sometimes. I'm like, I don't have time to deal with. a 100red or 200 or 300 replies. >> You have a million. That's incredible. I. mean, it's just. >> I mean, you have two million. I think. Sax must have a million, right? You have. a million, right, Sax? Only only. >> Brad. How many you have now? You're. getting popular. >> You built a couple. >> Got a couple hund. >> What's your Oh, your alt cap altca.

>> I'm at 1.4 million. What are you at, Jacob? Have I surpassed you? >> I think you have. I'm like 1.1. >> What it cost me to get my real name, Jason? >> Uh, I know a guy. Find out. >> You're 1.1. Yeah, I made it to 1.4. I. don't know how that happened exactly. >> Just having the number one podcast in. the world. Uh, another amazing episode. of the number one pop and Chimath has. two million, but that's only because he. engages he has just incredible moments.

of uh engaging with his haters. Oh my. god, the the the replies that Chimath. sometimes drops are so great. I love. Chimoth goes. >> I light them up. I light them up. >> He lights them up. Then you had somebody. who was like, "Oh my god, I was in the. casino and you told me to bet black, so. you bet black, so I bet black and I lost. my money." And so you're responsible and. then you paid for the kids college. He. has two young girls and so I I funded. their college accounts. >> I thought that was hilarious. Just as.

>> obviously I'm very happy for him and his. two daughters. I'm even more happy at. how much it'll anger all these other. goofball dorks living in their mom's. basement. >> Yes. >> Who'd literally have no take they take. no responsibility for their lives. And uh they should enjoy those Hot. Pockets. By the way, for those folks in. their mom's basement, the Hot Pockets. and the Fish Sticks are ready and you. get one more hour of Xbox from mom. >> All right, listen. We missed you, Freeberg, but this is the best episode. in two years. Uh. >> Freeird at the end of the show.

>> And we will see you all at the liquidity. summit except for the 400 people on the. wait list who aren't going to get in. >> We got an email from the guys at Athena. because we were just. >> Oh my god. the they they're they're. going to hire like 500 new Athena. assistants. >> Yes, they had a thousand people after. last week when we mentioned how much we. love Athena. >> Go to Athena.com. >> But that's amazing. Those are like 500. hardworking men and women who are like. working. >> in the Philippines. >> Sax have great jobs.

>> Sax, I'm going to get you a couple. Athena assistants as a birthday present. That's what I'm going to get. >> You're going to love this, Sax. H Athena. assistants are the best. Congratulations. to my friends over there. All right, everybody. We'll see you next time. Love. you boys on. >> tonight favorite podcast. >> Let your winners ride. >> Rain. and. >> we open source it to the fans and. they've just gone crazy with it.

>> Love you queen of. winners. >> Besties are gone. That is my dog taking out your. driveways. >> Oh man, my appetiter will meet. >> We should all just get a room and just. have one big huge orgy cuz they're all. just useless. It's like this like sexual. tension that we just need to release. somehow.

>> That's going to be good. We need to get. merch. I'm going all in.